Time Variation in Okun's Law: A Canada and U.S. Comparison Staff Working Paper 2010-7 Kimberly Beaton This article investigates the stability of Okun's law for Canada and the United States using a time varying parameter approach. Time variation is modeled as driftless random walks and is estimated using the median unbiased estimator approach developed by Stock and Watson (1998). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Labour markets JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, J, J0, J00
Ownership Concentration and Competition in Banking Markets Staff Working Paper 2006-7 Alexandra Lai, Raphael Solomon Many countries prohibit large shareholdings in their domestic banks.The authors examine whether such a restriction restrains competition in a duopolistic loan market. Blockholders may influence managers' output decisions by choosing capital structure, as in Brander and Lewis (1986). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial services, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): G, G2, G21, G28, G3, G32, L, L1, L10
Modelling the Behaviour of U.S. Inventories: A Cointegration-Euler Approach Staff Working Paper 1997-19 Iris Claus Cyclical contractions are often referred to as inventory cycles, in part because movements in inventories can amplify cyclical fluctuations in output. An unanticipated slowing in demand generally leads to an unintended buildup of inventories: only with a lag do firms adjust production and their actual holding of inventories relative to the desired level. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): International topics JEL Code(s): E, E2, E22
The Role of Bank Capital in the Propagation of Shocks Staff Working Paper 2008-36 Césaire Meh, Kevin Moran Recent events in financial markets have underlined the importance of analyzing the link between the financial health of banks and real economic activity. This paper contributes to this analysis by constructing a dynamic general equilibrium model in which the balance sheet of banks affects the propagation of shocks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Financial institutions, Financial system regulation and policies, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, E5, E52, G, G2, G21
The Effect of Exchange Rate Movements on Heterogeneous Plants: A Quantile Regression Analysis Staff Working Paper 2010-25 Ben Tomlin, Loretta Fung In this paper, we examine how the effect of movements in the real exchange rate on manufacturing plants depends on the plant's placement within the productivity distribution. Appreciations of the local currency expose domestic plants to more competition from abroad as export opportunities shrink and import competition intensifies. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Exchange rates, Market structure and pricing, Productivity JEL Code(s): D, D2, D21, F, F1, L, L1, L16, L6, L60
Untapped Potential: Mobile Device Ownership and Mobile Payments in Canada Staff Working Paper 2024-25 Marie-Hélène Felt, Angelika Welte, Katrina Talavera We present a two-stage model of mobile phone and mobile payment usage that controls for selectivity. This reveals unobserved factors that work against having a mobile phone and toward mobile paying. Therefore, people who are unable to acquire or choose not to own a mobile device might have unmet payment needs. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Bank notes, Digital currencies and fintech, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C3, C39, D, D1, D12, E, E4, E42
Limiting Sender’s Information in Bayesian Persuasion Staff Working Paper 2019-10 Shota Ichihashi This paper studies how the outcome of Bayesian persuasion depends on a sender’s information. I study a game in which, prior to the sender’s information disclosure, the designer can restrict the most informative signal that the sender can generate. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models JEL Code(s): D, D8, D82, D83
Housing Market Cycles and Duration Dependence in the United States and Canada Staff Working Paper 2007-2 Rose Cunningham, Ilan Kolet Housing wealth is a large component of total wealth and plays an important role in aggregate business cycles. In this paper, we explore data on real house price cycles at the aggregate level and city level for the United States and Canada. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C4, C41, E, E3, E32, R, R2, R21
Sheep in Wolf’s Clothing: Using the Least Squares Criterion for Quantile Estimation Staff Working Paper 2014-24 Heng Chen Estimation of the quantile model, especially with a large data set, can be computationally burdensome. This paper proposes using the Gaussian approximation, also known as quantile coupling, to estimate a quantile model. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C1, C13, C14, C2, C21
Testing for a Structural Break in the Volatility of Real GDP Growth in Canada Staff Working Paper 2001-9 Alexandre Debs This study tests for a structural break in the volatility of real GDP growth in Canada following the methodology of McConnell and Quiros (1998). A break is found in the first quarter of 1991. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, E, E3, E32