Assessing global potential output growth and the US neutral rate: April 2022 Staff Analytical Note 2022-4 Kyle Boutilier, Thomas J. Carter, Xin Scott Chen, Eshini Ekanayake, Louis Poirier, Peter Shannon, Akash Uppal, Lin Xiang We expect global potential output growth to increase from 2.7% in 2021 to 2.9% by 2024. Compared with the April 2021 assessment, global potential output growth is marginally slower. The current range for the US neutral rate is 2% to 3%, 0.25 percentage points higher than staff’s last assessment. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Interest rates, Monetary policy, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E1, E2, E4, E5, F, F0, O, O4
How Changes in Oil Prices Affect the Macroeconomy Staff Working Paper 2009-33 Brian DePratto, Carlos De Resende, Philipp Maier We estimate a New Keynesian general-equilibrium open economy model to examine how changes in oil prices affect the macroeconomy. Our model allows oil price changes to be transmitted through temporary demand and supply channels (affecting the output gap), as well as through persistent supply side effects (affecting trend growth). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Interest rates, Monetary policy transmission, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): F, F4, F41, Q, Q4, Q43
Are Working Hours Complements in Production? Staff Working Paper 2022-47 Lin Shao, Faisal Sohail, Emircan Yurdagul Using Canadian matched employer-employee data, we show that working hours of different workers are gross complements in production rather than perfect substitutes, as is typically assumed by macroeconomic models of production. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Labour markets JEL Code(s): E, E2, E23, J, J2, J22, J23, J3, J31
Firm Size and Productivity Staff Working Paper 2008-45 Danny Leung, Césaire Meh, Yaz Terajima This paper examines the relationship between firm size and productivity. In contrast to previous studies, this paper offers evidence of the relationship not only from manufacturing firms, but from non-manufacturing firms as well. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Productivity JEL Code(s): L, L1, L11, L2, L25, O, O4, O47
Production Networks and the Propagation of Commodity Price Shocks Staff Working Paper 2020-44 Shutao Cao, Wei Dong We examine the macro implications of commodity price shocks in a model with multiple production sectors that are interconnected within a commodity-exporting small open economy. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, International topics JEL Code(s): D, D5, D57, F, F4, F41
Inflation and Unemployment in Competitive Search Equilibrium Staff Working Paper 2010-15 Mei Dong Using a monetary search model, Rocheteau, Rupert and Wright (2007) show that the relationship between inflation and unemployment can be positive or negative depending on the primitives of the model. The key features are indivisible labor, nonseparable preferences and bargaining. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Inflation: costs and benefits JEL Code(s): E, E1, E12, E13, E4, E40, E5, E52
The Size and Destination of China’s Portfolio Outflows Staff Discussion Paper 2018-11 Rose Cunningham, Eden Hatzvi, Kun Mo The size of China’s financial system raises the possibility that the liberalization of its capital account could have a large effect on the global financial system. This paper provides a counterfactual scenario analysis that estimates what the size and direction of China’s overseas portfolio investments would have been in 2015 if China had had no restrictions on these outflows. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Balance of payments and components, Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C2, C23, F, F2, F21, F3, F32, G, G1, G15
Improving Overnight Loan Identification in Payments Systems Staff Working Paper 2014-25 Mark Rempel Information on the allocation and pricing of over-the-counter (OTC) markets is scarce. Furfine (1999) pioneered an algorithm that provides transaction-level data on the OTC interbank lending market. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets, Interest rates, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): C, C3, C38, C5, C53, E, E4, E42, E44, G, G1, G10
Measures of Aggregate Credit Conditions and Their Potential Use by Central Banks Staff Discussion Paper 2009-12 Alejandro García, Andrei Prokopiw Understanding the nature of credit risk has important implications for financial stability. Since authorities – notably, central banks – focus on risks that have systemic implications, it is crucial to develop ways to measure these risks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Financial markets, Financial stability JEL Code(s): G, G1, G10, G12, G13
February 10, 2015 Minding the Labour Gap Remarks Carolyn A. Wilkins Ottawa Economics Association Ottawa, Ontario Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Wilkins discusses the state of the labour market, the impact of lower oil prices on Canada’s economic outlook and the importance of both for monetary policy. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Potential output, Productivity