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3046 Results

Statistical Confidence Intervals for the Bank of Canada's Business Outlook Survey

Staff Discussion Paper 2010-7 Daniel de Munnik
While a number of central banks publish their own business conditions indicators that rely on non-random sampling, knowledge about their statistical accuracy has been limited.

On the Programmability and Uniformity of Digital Currencies

Staff Working Paper 2025-18 Jonathan Chiu, Cyril Monnet
Central bankers argue that programmable digital currencies may compromise the uniformity of money. We develop a stylized model to examine this argument and the trade-offs involved in circulating programmable money.

How Changes in Oil Prices Affect the Macroeconomy

Staff Working Paper 2009-33 Brian DePratto, Carlos De Resende, Philipp Maier
We estimate a New Keynesian general-equilibrium open economy model to examine how changes in oil prices affect the macroeconomy. Our model allows oil price changes to be transmitted through temporary demand and supply channels (affecting the output gap), as well as through persistent supply side effects (affecting trend growth).

A Structural VAR Approach to the Intertemporal Model of the Current Account

Staff Working Paper 2003-42 Takashi Kano
The intertemporal current account approach predicts that the current account of a small open economy is independent of global shocks, and that responses of the current account to country-specific shocks depend on the persistence of the shocks. The author shows that these predictions impose cross-equation restrictions (CERS) on a structural vector autoregression (SVAR).

The Implications of the FTA and NAFTA for Canada and Mexico

Technical Report No. 70 William White
This report highlights the possible implications of the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) and the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) for Canada and Mexico. While it is still early, the initial evidence indicates that these treaties are contributing to a continental process of industrial restructuring that will contribute to higher living standards over time. The […]
Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Research Topic(s): International topics JEL Code(s): F, F1, F13

The Impact of a Trade War: Assessment of the Current Tariffs and Alternative Scenarios

Staff Analytical Note 2019-20 Karyne B. Charbonneau
This note uses Charbonneau and Landry’s (2018) framework to assess the direct impact of the current trade tensions on the Canadian and global economies, as well as possible implications if the conflict escalates further. Overall, my findings show that the estimated impact of current tariffs on real gross domestic product (GDP) remains relatively small, which is in line with the literature on gains from trade, but the impact on trade is much larger.

Should Central Banks Worry About Nonlinearities of their Large-Scale Macroeconomic Models?

Staff Working Paper 2017-21 Vadym Lepetyuk, Lilia Maliar, Serguei Maliar
How wrong could policymakers be when using linearized solutions to their macroeconomic models instead of nonlinear global solutions?

Globalization and Inflation: The Role of China

Staff Working Paper 2008-35 Denise Côté, Carlos De Resende
In this paper, we develop a theoretical model which identifies four channels–import prices, competition with domestic suppliers and workers, and commodity prices–through which price- and wage-setting conditions in country j may affect inflation in country i.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): International topics JEL Code(s): E, E2, E22, E3, E32, E4, E44

Alternative Optimized Monetary Policy Rules in Multi-Sector Small Open Economies: The Role of Real Rigidities

Staff Working Paper 2010-9 Carlos De Resende, Ali Dib, Maral Kichian
Inflation-targeting central banks around the world often state their inflation objectives with regard to the consumer price index (CPI). Yet the literature on optimal monetary policy based on models with nominal rigidities and more than one sector suggests that CPI inflation is not always the best choice from a social welfare perspective.
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