Responding to the First Era of Globalization: Canadian Trade Policy, 1870–1913 Staff working paper 2018-42 Ian Keay, Patrick Alexander In this paper we document Canada’s trade policy response to late-nineteenth- and earlytwentieth-century globalization. We link newly digitized annual product-specific data on the value of Canadian imports and duties paid from 1870–1913 to establishment-specific production and location information drawn from the manuscripts of the 1871 industrial census. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): F, F1, F13, F14, F4, F42, F6, F60, N, N7, N71 Research Theme(s): Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
Climate Change and Socio-economic inequality in the US Staff working paper 2026-16 Barbara Sadaba, Tatjana Dahlhaus This paper examines how climate change affects income inequality across US states. Using a new climate-inequality VAR and a century of daily temperature data, it shows that shifts across the full temperature distribution—not just average warming—have diverse effects on within-state inequality. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, C3, C32, D, D6, D63, Q, Q5, Q54 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Structural challenges, Climate change
Furor over the Fed : Presidential Tweets and Central Bank Independence Staff analytical note 2019-33 Antoine Camous, Dmitry Matveev We illustrate how market data can be informative about the interactions between monetary and fiscal policy. Federal funds futures are private contracts that reflect investor’s expectations about monetary policy decisions. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, E5, E52, E58 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission
Demand-Driven Risk Premia in Foreign Exchange and Bond Markets Staff working paper 2025-29 Ingomar Krohn, Andreas Uthemann, Rishi Vala, Jun Yang We show how Treasury demand shocks transmit to foreign exchange and bond markets globally. Higher Treasury demand weakens the U.S. dollar and raises foreign bond prices, with effects persisting for two weeks. The transmission varies predictably across countries based on their monetary policy alignment with the United States. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): F, F3, F30, F31, G, G1, G12, G15 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, International markets and currencies, Market functioning, Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk
May 14, 2015 Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2015 In this issue, Bank researchers discuss inflation dynamics and global trade following the 2007–09 financial crisis. Other articles explore changes to the governance and regulation of the Canadian payments system and outline the banking services provided by the Bank of Canada. Finally, the results of the 2013 Methods-of-Payment Survey are presented. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review
(Optimal) Monetary Policy with and without Debt Staff working paper 2021-5 Boris Chafwehé, Rigas Oikonomou, Romanos Priftis, Lukas Vogel How should policy be designed at high debt levels, when fiscal authorities have little room to adjust taxes? Assigning the monetary authority a role in achieving debt sustainability makes it less effective in stabilizing inflation and output. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, E, E3, E31, E5, E52, E58, E6, E62 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Monetary policy tools and implementation, Real economy and forecasting
The Simple Economics of Global Fuel Consumption Staff working paper 2019-35 Doga Bilgin, Reinhard Ellwanger This paper presents a structural framework of the global oil market that relies on information on global fuel consumption to identify flow demand for oil. We show that under mild identifying assumptions, data on global fuel consumption help to provide comparatively sharp insights on elasticities and other key structural parameters of the global oil market. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, C51, L, L7, L71, Q, Q4, Q41, Q43 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting
Democratic Political Economy of Financial Regulation Staff working paper 2021-59 Igor Livshits, Youngmin Park We offer a theory of how inefficiently lax financial regulation could arise in a democratic society. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E44, G, G0, G01, G2, G21, G28, P, P4, P48 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Financial system regulation and oversight, Household and business credit
Climate-Related Flood Risk to Residential Lending Portfolios in Canada Staff discussion paper 2023-33 Craig Johnston, Geneviève Vallée, Hossein Hosseini Jebeli, Brett Lindsay, Miguel Molico, Marie-Christine Tremblay, Aidan Witts We assess the potential financial risks of current and projected flooding caused by extreme weather events in Canada. We focus on the residential real estate secured lending (RESL) portfolios of Canadian financial institutions (FIs) because RESL portfolios are an important component of FIs’ balance sheets and because the assets used to secure such loans are immobile and susceptible to climate-related extreme weather events. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): C, C8, C81, G, G2, G21, Q, Q5, Q54 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Household and business credit, Structural challenges, Climate change
Assessing the Predictive Ability of Sovereign Default Risk on Exchange Rate Returns Staff working paper 2017-19 Claudia Foroni, Francesco Ravazzolo, Barbara Sadaba Increased sovereign credit risk is often associated with sharp currency movements. Therefore, expectations of the probability of a sovereign default event can convey important information regarding future movements of exchange rates. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, C5, C52, C53, F, F3, F31 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, International markets and currencies, Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods