Which Model to Forecast the Target Rate? Staff working paper 2017-60 Bruno Feunou, Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, Jianjian Jin Specifications of the Federal Reserve target rate that have more realistic features mitigate in-sample over-fitting and are favored in the data. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Real economy and forecasting
Measuring the Effectiveness of Salespeople: Evidence from a Cold-Drink Market Staff working paper 2021-40 Haofeng Jin, Zhentong Lu Salespeople are widely employed in many industries. We leverage a unique data set on retail sales from a leading Chinese cold-drink manufacturer and information on the firm’s salespeople assignment rule to measure the causal effect of salespeople on product revenue. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): L, L8, L81, M, M3, M5 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
Monetary Policy Implementation in a Negative Rate Environment Staff working paper 2017-25 Michael Boutros, Jonathan Witmer Monetary policy implementation could, in theory, be constrained by deeply negative rates since overnight market participants may have an incentive to invest in cash rather than lend to other participants. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E40, E42, E43, G, G0 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Monetary policy tools and implementation
Corporate Debt Composition and Business Cycles Staff working paper 2019-5 Jelena Zivanovic Based on empirical evidence, I propose a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with two financial sectors to analyze the role of corporate debt composition (bank versus bond financing) in the transmission of economic shocks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E4, E44 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Household and business credit, Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Real economy and forecasting
The Size and Characteristics of Informal (“Gig”) Work in Canada Staff analytical note 2019-6 Olena Kostyshyna, Corinne Luu Underlying wage growth has fallen short of what would be consistent with an economy operating with little or no slack. While many factors could explain this weakness, the availability of additional labour resources from informal (“gig”) work—not fully captured in standard measures of employment and hours worked—may play a role. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, E26, J, J2, J20, J3, J30, J4 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
Climate Change and Socio-economic inequality in the US Staff working paper 2026-16 Barbara Sadaba, Tatjana Dahlhaus This paper examines how climate change affects income inequality across US states. Using a new climate-inequality VAR and a century of daily temperature data, it shows that shifts across the full temperature distribution—not just average warming—have diverse effects on within-state inequality. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, C3, C32, D, D6, D63, Q, Q5, Q54 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Structural challenges, Climate change
August 19, 2010 Price-Level Targeting and Relative-Price Shocks Bank of Canada Review - Summer 2010 Stephen Murchison Stephen Murchison reviews the findings of recent Bank of Canada research on the relative merits of inflation targeting and price-level targeting (PLT) for a small open economy, such as Canada's, that is susceptible to large and persistent terms-of-trade shocks. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles
August 25, 2015 The Long-Term Evolution of House Prices: An International Perspective Remarks Lawrence L. Schembri Canadian Association for Business Economics Kingston, Ontario Deputy Governor Lawrence Schembri discusses the international evidence of underlying determinants of long-term movements in house prices. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
A Financial Stability Analysis of Zombie Firms in Canada Staff analytical note 2020-3 Timothy Grieder, Juan Ortega We measure the prevalence of zombie firms in Canada and assess how they could potentially affect the financial system. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): G, G3, G32 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Household and business credit
Crisis facilities as a source of public information Staff analytical note 2025-7 Lerby Ergun During the COVID-19 financial market crisis, central banks introduced programs to support liquidity in important core funding markets. As well as acting as a backstop to market prices, these programs produce useful trading data on prevailing market conditions. When summary information from this data is shared publicly, it can help market participants understand current conditions and aid the recovery of market functioning. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): C, C5, C58, D, D5, D53, D8, D83, G, G1, G12, G14 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation