A Simple Method for Extracting the Probability of Default from American Put Option Prices Staff working paper 2020-15 Bo Young Chang, Greg Orosi A put option is a financial contract that gives the holder the right to sell an asset at a specific price by (or at) a specific date. A put option can therefore provide its holder insurance against a large drop in the stock price. This makes the prices of put options an ideal source of information for a market-based measure of the probability of a firm’s default. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): G, G1, G13, G3, G33 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Market structure
Stability and Efficiency in Decentralized Two‐Sided Markets with Weak Preferences Staff working paper 2017-4 Radoslav Raykov Many decentralized markets are able to attain a stable outcome despite the absence of a central authority (Roth and Vande Vate, 1990). A stable matching, however, need not be efficient if preferences are weak. This raises the question whether a decentralized market with weak preferences can attain Pareto efficiency in the absence of a central matchmaker. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C7, C78, D, D6, D61 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market structure, Models and tools, Economic models
December 9, 2010 Financial System Review - December 2010 Although the global financial system continues to recover gradually from the unprecedented dislocations experienced in recent years, significant downside risks remain. Market concerns over acute fiscal strains in some euro-area countries have intensified sharply in recent weeks.FSR Highlights - December 2010 Content Type(s): Publications, Financial Stability Report
Cashless Bank Branches in Canada Staff analytical note 2019-29 Walter Engert, Ben Fung Cashless or tellerless bank branches have proliferated in several countries in recent years. In a cashless bank branch, teller or counter services such as cash withdrawals, deposits and cheque-cashing are not available. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E4, E41, E42, E5, E51 Research Theme(s): Money and payments, Cash and bank notes, Digital assets and fintech, Retail payments
March 13, 2008 Addressing Financial Market Turbulence Remarks Mark Carney Toronto Board of Trade Toronto, Ontario Since last summer, many of us here today have been preoccupied with the ongoing dislocations in financial markets. What began in securities linked to U.S. subprime mortgages has spread to a broad range of structured assets, conventional credit markets, and, to a lesser extent, equities. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
Foreign Exchange Interventions: The Long and the Short of It Staff working paper 2022-25 Patrick Alexander, Sami Alpanda, Serdar Kabaca This paper studies the effects of foreign exchange (FX) interventions in a two-region model where governments issue both short- and long-term bonds. We find that the term premium channel dominates the trade balance channel in our calibrated model. As a result, the conventional beggar-thy-neighbor effects of interventions are overturned. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): F, F3, F31, F33, F4, F41 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Funds management, International markets and currencies, Models and tools, Economic models
Interconnected Banks and Systemically Important Exposures Staff working paper 2019-44 Alan Roncoroni, Stefano Battiston, Marco D’Errico, Grzegorz Halaj, Christoffer Kok How do banks' interconnections in the euro area contribute to the vulnerability of the banking system? We study both the direct interconnections (banks lend to each other) and the indirect interconnections (banks are exposed to similar sectors of the economy). These complex linkages make the banking system more vulnerable to contagion risks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C6, C63, G, G1, G15, G2, G21 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Financial stability and systemic risk
(Optimal) Monetary Policy with and without Debt Staff working paper 2021-5 Boris Chafwehé, Rigas Oikonomou, Romanos Priftis, Lukas Vogel How should policy be designed at high debt levels, when fiscal authorities have little room to adjust taxes? Assigning the monetary authority a role in achieving debt sustainability makes it less effective in stabilizing inflation and output. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, E, E3, E31, E5, E52, E58, E6, E62 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Monetary policy tools and implementation, Real economy and forecasting
Vertical Bargaining and Obfuscation Staff working paper 2022-13 Edona Reshidi Is obscuring prices always bad for consumers? The answer depends on the market structure and on the negotiating power between manufacturers and retailers. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C7, C70, L, L1, L13, L4, L42 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market structure, Models and tools, Economic models
October 17, 2022 Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations—Third Quarter of 2022 This survey took place between August 2 and August 23, 2022. Follow-up interviews took place in September. Expectations for inflation one to two years ahead have continued to rise because consumers anticipate supply chain disruptions and elevated oil prices will persist. In contrast, expectations for inflation five years ahead have eased to near pre-pandemic levels. Still, consumers are more divided this quarter about where inflation will end up in the long term. Content Type(s): Publications, Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations