Time-Consistent Management of a Liquidity Trap with Government Debt Staff Working Paper 2018-38 Dmitry Matveev This paper studies optimal discretionary monetary and fiscal policy when the lower bound on nominal interest rates is occasionally binding in a model with nominal rigidities and long-term government debt. At the lower bound it is optimal for the government to temporarily reduce debt. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Fiscal policy, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E6, E62, E63
The Macroeconomic Effects of Quantitative Easing in the Euro Area: Evidence from an Estimated DSGE Model Staff Working Paper 2018-11 Stefan Hohberger, Romanos Priftis, Lukas Vogel This paper estimates an open-economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with Bayesian techniques to analyse the macroeconomic effects of the European Central Bank’s (ECB’s) quantitative easing (QE) programme. Using data on government debt stocks and yields across maturities, we identify the parameter governing portfolio adjustment in the private sector. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Interest rates, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, E5, E52, F, F4, F41
Time Variation in Okun's Law: A Canada and U.S. Comparison Staff Working Paper 2010-7 Kimberly Beaton This article investigates the stability of Okun's law for Canada and the United States using a time varying parameter approach. Time variation is modeled as driftless random walks and is estimated using the median unbiased estimator approach developed by Stock and Watson (1998). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Labour markets JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, J, J0, J00
How Changes in Oil Prices Affect the Macroeconomy Staff Working Paper 2009-33 Brian DePratto, Carlos De Resende, Philipp Maier We estimate a New Keynesian general-equilibrium open economy model to examine how changes in oil prices affect the macroeconomy. Our model allows oil price changes to be transmitted through temporary demand and supply channels (affecting the output gap), as well as through persistent supply side effects (affecting trend growth). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Interest rates, Monetary policy transmission, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): F, F4, F41, Q, Q4, Q43
Regulatory Constraints on Bank Leverage: Issues and Lessons from the Canadian Experience Staff Discussion Paper 2009-15 Étienne Bordeleau, Allan Crawford, Christopher Graham The Basel capital framework plays an important role in risk management by linking a bank's minimum capital requirements to the riskiness of its assets. Nevertheless, the risk estimates underlying these calculations may be imperfect, and it appears that a cyclical bias in measures of risk-adjusted capital contributed to procyclical increases in global leverage prior to the recent financial crisis. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): G, G0, G01, G2, G21, G28
How Do Canadian Banks That Deal in Foreign Exchange Hedge Their Exposure to Risk? Staff Working Paper 2002-34 Chris D'Souza This paper examines the daily hedging and risk-management practices of financial intermediaries in the Canadian foreign exchange (FX) market. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial markets, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): F, F3, F31, G, G1, G14, G2, G21
The Role of Bank Capital in the Propagation of Shocks Staff Working Paper 2008-36 Césaire Meh, Kevin Moran Recent events in financial markets have underlined the importance of analyzing the link between the financial health of banks and real economic activity. This paper contributes to this analysis by constructing a dynamic general equilibrium model in which the balance sheet of banks affects the propagation of shocks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Financial institutions, Financial system regulation and policies, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, E5, E52, G, G2, G21
Modelling the Behaviour of U.S. Inventories: A Cointegration-Euler Approach Staff Working Paper 1997-19 Iris Claus Cyclical contractions are often referred to as inventory cycles, in part because movements in inventories can amplify cyclical fluctuations in output. An unanticipated slowing in demand generally leads to an unintended buildup of inventories: only with a lag do firms adjust production and their actual holding of inventories relative to the desired level. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): International topics JEL Code(s): E, E2, E22
Starting from a Blank Page? Semantic Similarity in Central Bank Communication and Market Volatility Staff Working Paper 2016-37 Michael Ehrmann, Jonathan Talmi Press releases announcing and explaining monetary policy decisions play a critical role in the communication strategy of central banks. Because of their market-moving potential, it is particularly important how they are drafted. Often, central banks start from the previous statement and update the earlier text with only small changes. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Financial markets, Interest rates JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E5, E52, E58
The Distributional Effects of Conventional Monetary Policy and Quantitative Easing: Evidence from an Estimated DSGE Model Staff Working Paper 2019-6 Stefan Hohberger, Romanos Priftis, Lukas Vogel This paper compares the distributional effects of conventional monetary policy and quantitative easing (QE) within an estimated open-economy DSGE model of the euro area. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Interest rates, Monetary policy, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, E5, E52, F, F4, F41