Measuring the Effectiveness of Salespeople: Evidence from a Cold-Drink Market Staff working paper 2021-40 Haofeng Jin, Zhentong Lu Salespeople are widely employed in many industries. We leverage a unique data set on retail sales from a leading Chinese cold-drink manufacturer and information on the firm’s salespeople assignment rule to measure the causal effect of salespeople on product revenue. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): L, L8, L81, M, M3, M5 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
How Oil Supply Shocks Affect the Global Economy: Evidence from Local Projections Staff discussion paper 2019-6 Olivier Gervais We provide empirical evidence on the impact of oil supply shocks on global aggregates. To do this, we first extract structural oil supply shocks from a standard oil-price determination model found in the literature. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, C5, E, E3, E37, Q, Q4, Q43 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
The Size and Characteristics of Informal (“Gig”) Work in Canada Staff analytical note 2019-6 Olena Kostyshyna, Corinne Luu Underlying wage growth has fallen short of what would be consistent with an economy operating with little or no slack. While many factors could explain this weakness, the availability of additional labour resources from informal (“gig”) work—not fully captured in standard measures of employment and hours worked—may play a role. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, E26, J, J2, J20, J3, J30, J4 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
Generalized Autoregressive Gamma Processes Staff working paper 2023-40 Bruno Feunou We introduce generalized autoregressive gamma (GARG) processes, a class of autoregressive and moving-average processes in which each conditional moment dynamic is driven by a different and identifiable moving average of the variable of interest. We show that using GARG processes reduces pricing errors by substantially more than using existing autoregressive gamma processes does. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, C58, G, G1, G12 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods
Markets Look Beyond the Headline Staff analytical note 2018-37 Bruno Feunou, James Kyeong, Raisa Leiderman Many reports and analyses interpret the release of new economic data based on the headline surprise—for instance, total inflation, real GDP growth and the unemployment rate. However, we find that headline news alone cannot adequately explain the responses of market prices to new information. Rather, market prices react more strongly, on average, to non-headline news such as the composition of GDP growth, quality of jobs created and revisions to past data. Thus, tracking the impact of non-headline information released on the news day is crucial in analyzing how markets interpret and react to new economic data. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, G, G1, G12, G14 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission
August 25, 2015 The Long-Term Evolution of House Prices: An International Perspective Remarks Lawrence L. Schembri Canadian Association for Business Economics Kingston, Ontario Deputy Governor Lawrence Schembri discusses the international evidence of underlying determinants of long-term movements in house prices. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
Estimating the Slope of the Demand Function at Auctions for Government of Canada Bonds Staff discussion paper 2023-12 Bo Young Chang We use bid data from Government of Canada bond auctions between 1999 and 2021 to gauge the yield sensitivity of these bonds to the issuance amount. Our new metric estimates the demand function of the bidders at each auction and offers insights into the relationship between supply and yield of government bonds. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): D, D4, D44, G, G1, G12 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Funds management, Market functioning
Asset Encumbrance, Bank Funding and Financial Fragility Staff working paper 2016-16 Kartik Anand, Prasanna Gai, James Chapman, Toni Ahnert In this piece we show that a limit on the level of asset encumbrance and minimum capital requirements are effective tools for minimizing the incentive for banks to take excessive risk. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D8, D82, G, G0, G01, G2, G21, G28 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Financial stability and systemic risk, Financial system regulation and oversight
Price Selection Staff working paper 2018-44 Carlos Carvalho, Oleksiy Kryvtsov We propose a simple, model-free way to measure selection in price setting and its contribution to inflation dynamics. The proposed measure of price selection is based on the observed comovement between inflation and the average level from which adjusting prices depart. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E5, E51 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission
Optimal Monetary Policy According to HANK Staff working paper 2021-55 Sushant Acharya, Edouard Challe, Keshav Dogra We study optimal monetary policy in an analytically tractable Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian model. In the model, the central bank has an incentive to reduce consumption inequality in addition to keeping economic activity at its efficient level and inflation stable. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, E3, E30, E5, E52, E6, E62, E63 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Monetary policy tools and implementation