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2160 Results

Aggregate Fluctuations and the Role of Trade Credit

Staff working paper 2017-37 Lin Shao
In an economy where production takes place in multiple stages and is subject to financial frictions, how firms finance intermediate inputs matters for aggregate outcomes. This paper focuses on trade credit—the lending and borrowing of input goods between firms—and quantifies its aggregate impacts during the Great Recession.

Agency Costs, Risk Shocks and International Cycles

Staff working paper 2016-2 Marc-André Letendre, Joel Wagner
We add agency costs as in Carlstrom and Fuerst (1997) into a two-country, two-good international business-cycle model. In our model, changes in the relative price of investment arise endogenously.

Monetary Policy Implementation in a Negative Rate Environment

Staff working paper 2017-25 Michael Boutros, Jonathan Witmer
Monetary policy implementation could, in theory, be constrained by deeply negative rates since overnight market participants may have an incentive to invest in cash rather than lend to other participants.

Global Trade Flows: Revisiting the Exchange Rate Elasticities

This paper contributes to the debate on the magnitude of exchange rate elasticities by providing a set of price and quantity elasticities for 51 advanced and emerging-market economies. Specifically, for each of these countries we report the elasticity of trade prices and trade quantities on both the export and on the import sides, as well as the reaction of the trade balance.

Crisis facilities as a source of public information

Staff analytical note 2025-7 Lerby Ergun
During the COVID-19 financial market crisis, central banks introduced programs to support liquidity in important core funding markets. As well as acting as a backstop to market prices, these programs produce useful trading data on prevailing market conditions. When summary information from this data is shared publicly, it can help market participants understand current conditions and aid the recovery of market functioning.

Saving after Retirement and Preferences for Residual Wealth

Staff working paper 2024-21 Giulio Fella, Martin B. Holm, Thomas Michael Pugh
We estimate a model of households in Norway with bequest motives, health-dependent utility, and uncertain longevity and health. Our estimates imply strong bequest motives for households both with and without offspring. We interpret this as suggestive evidence that utility from residual wealth represents forces beyond an altruistic bequest motive.

How Oil Supply Shocks Affect the Global Economy: Evidence from Local Projections

Staff discussion paper 2019-6 Olivier Gervais
We provide empirical evidence on the impact of oil supply shocks on global aggregates. To do this, we first extract structural oil supply shocks from a standard oil-price determination model found in the literature.

Consumer Cash Withdrawal Behaviour: Branch Networks and Online Financial Innovation

Staff working paper 2021-28 Heng Chen, Matthew Strathearn, Marcel Voia
The physical network of bank branches is important in how consumers manage their cash holdings. This paper estimates how consumer withdrawal behaviour responds to the distance they must travel to their branch.

Measuring the AI Economy

Staff working paper 2026-20 Anton Korinek, Patrick McKelvey
We construct a macroeconomic estimate of total AI production in the United States, combining inference and R&D/training activities with quality adjustments to account for algorithmic progress. We then develop a nascent framework for "AI GDP" that tracks the AI economy as a coherent whole, complementing traditional national accounts.
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