Nowcasting the Global Economy Staff Discussion Paper 2010-12 James Rossiter Forecasts of global economic activity and inflation are important inputs when conducting monetary policy in small open economies such as Canada. As part of the Bank of Canada's broad agenda to augment its short-term forecasting tools, the author constructs simple mixed-frequency forecasting equations for quarterly global output, imports, and inflation using the monthly global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E3, E37, F, F4, F47
What Affects MFP in the Long-Run? Evidence from Canadian Industries Staff Working Paper 2008-4 Danny Leung, Yi Zheng In this paper we explore variables that may have an impact on multifactor productivity (MFP) in the long-run using the KLEMS database for Canada. We estimate a dynamic heterogeneous panel error-correction model of twelve 2-digit level industries. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Productivity JEL Code(s): C, C2, C23, D, D2, D24, O, O3, O30
Income Inequality in Canada Staff Discussion Paper 2022-16 Sarah Burkinshaw, Yaz Terajima, Carolyn A. Wilkins Data show that income inequality in Canada increased substantially during the 1980s and first half of the 1990s but has been relatively stable over the past 25 years. This increase was felt mainly by low-income earners and younger people, while older people benefited from higher retirement income. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Labour markets, Monetary and financial indicators JEL Code(s): D, D3, D31, D6, D63, I, I2, I24, I3, I32, J, J3, J31, J32, N, N3, N32
The Role of Corporate Saving over the Business Cycle: Shock Absorber or Amplifier? Staff Working Paper 2018-59 Xiaodan Gao, Shaofeng Xu We document countercyclical corporate saving behavior with the degree of countercyclicality varying nonmonotonically with firm size. We then develop a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with heterogeneous firms to explain the pattern and study its implications for business cycles. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models JEL Code(s): E, E2, E20, E22, E3, E32, G, G3, G31, G32
The Impact of Retail Payment Innovations on Cash Usage Staff Working Paper 2012-14 Ben Fung, Kim Huynh, Leonard Sabetti Many predict that innovations in retail payment may render cash obsolete. We investigate this possibility in the context of recent payment innovations such as contactless-credit and stored-value cards. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial services, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): C, C3, C35, C8, C83, E, E4, E41
Ownership Concentration and Competition in Banking Markets Staff Working Paper 2006-7 Alexandra Lai, Raphael Solomon Many countries prohibit large shareholdings in their domestic banks.The authors examine whether such a restriction restrains competition in a duopolistic loan market. Blockholders may influence managers' output decisions by choosing capital structure, as in Brander and Lewis (1986). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial services, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): G, G2, G21, G28, G3, G32, L, L1, L10
February 1, 2012 Excess Collateral in the LVTS: How Much Is Too Much? Financial System Review - December 2003 Kim McPhail, Anastasia Vakos Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles
How Changes in Oil Prices Affect the Macroeconomy Staff Working Paper 2009-33 Brian DePratto, Carlos De Resende, Philipp Maier We estimate a New Keynesian general-equilibrium open economy model to examine how changes in oil prices affect the macroeconomy. Our model allows oil price changes to be transmitted through temporary demand and supply channels (affecting the output gap), as well as through persistent supply side effects (affecting trend growth). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Interest rates, Monetary policy transmission, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): F, F4, F41, Q, Q4, Q43
The Intergenerational Correlation of Employment: Is There a Role for Work Culture? Staff Working Paper 2019-33 Gabriela Galassi, David Koll, Lukas Mayr We document a substantial positive correlation of employment status between mothers and their children in the United States, linking data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 (NLSY79) and the NLSY79 Children and Young Adults. After controlling for ability, education and wealth, a one-year increase in a mother’s employment is associated with six weeks more employment of her child on average. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models, Labour markets JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, J, J2, J21, J22, J6, J62