Central Bank Digital Currency and Banking: Macroeconomic Benefits of a Cash-Like Design Staff working paper 2021-63 Jonathan Chiu, Mohammad Davoodalhosseini Should a CBDC be more like cash or bank deposits? An interest-bearing, cash-like CBDC not only makes payments more efficient but also increases total demand. This has positive effects on other transactions, inducing more deposit taking and lending and, thus, bank intermediation. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E5, E50, E58 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech, Payment and financial market infrastructures
Changes in Monetary Regimes and the Identification of Monetary Policy Shocks: Narrative Evidence from Canada Staff working paper 2017-39 Julien Champagne, Rodrigo Sekkel We use narrative evidence along with a novel database of real-time data and forecasts from the Bank of Canada's staff economic projections from 1974 to 2015 to construct a new measure of monetary policy shocks and estimate the effects of monetary policy in Canada. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E32, E4, E43, E5, E52, E58 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Monetary policy tools and implementation, Real economy and forecasting
September 15, 2008 The Bank of Canada's Senior Loan Officer Survey Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2008 Umar Faruqui, Paul Gilbert, Wendy Kei The Bank of Canada maintains regular contact with financial institutions as part of the information-gathering process that feeds into the larger set of information used to arrive at its monetary policy decision. Since 1999, the Bank has been conducting a quarterly survey of the business-lending practices of major Canadian financial institutions. Analysis of the information collected shows that it is correlated with future growth in both credit and business investment. This article focuses on how the survey is conducted and describes the construction of the summary statistics, highlighting the key statistical relationships in the historical survey data. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles
June 22, 2005 Estimating the Impact of Monetary Policy Surprises on Fixed-Income Markets Bank of Canada Review - Summer 2005 Jason Andreou In the interest of better understanding the impact of the Bank of Canada's policy actions on bond and bill yields, Andreou assesses the impact of policy-rate announcements on short and long bonds over the period 1996 to 2004. To aid the analysis, policy actions are decomposed into expected and surprise components. He also examines whether the introduction of fixed announcement dates (FADs) has affected these results, including markets' perceptions. The main finding is that unexpected policy actions by the Bank have a significant effect on market rates at the shorter end of the yield curve, with the effect dissipating as the maturity increases. A second finding, that the impact on longer-term interest rates of a surprise action by the Bank has diminished since the introduction of the FADs, suggests that the Bank's long-term policy goals are well understood and credible. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles
Saving after Retirement and Preferences for Residual Wealth Staff working paper 2024-21 Giulio Fella, Martin B. Holm, Thomas Michael Pugh We estimate a model of households in Norway with bequest motives, health-dependent utility, and uncertain longevity and health. Our estimates imply strong bequest motives for households both with and without offspring. We interpret this as suggestive evidence that utility from residual wealth represents forces beyond an altruistic bequest motive. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D1, D11, D12, D14, E, E2, E21 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
Global Trade Flows: Revisiting the Exchange Rate Elasticities Staff working paper 2017-41 Matthieu Bussière, Guillaume Gaulier, Walter Steingress This paper contributes to the debate on the magnitude of exchange rate elasticities by providing a set of price and quantity elasticities for 51 advanced and emerging-market economies. Specifically, for each of these countries we report the elasticity of trade prices and trade quantities on both the export and on the import sides, as well as the reaction of the trade balance. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, C51, F, F1, F14, F3, F31, F33, F4, F41 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, International markets and currencies, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
Assessing global potential output growth: April 2025 Staff analytical note 2025-15 Samuel Boulanger, Raheeb Dastagir, Daniel de Munnik, Eshini Ekanayake, Kun Mo, Walter Muiruri, Faiza Noor, Sabreena Obaid, Louis Poirier This note presents the annual update of Bank of Canada staff estimates for growth in global potential output. These estimates served as key inputs to the analysis supporting the April 2025 Monetary Policy Report. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E1, E2, F, F0, F1, O, O3, O33, O4 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply, Digitalization and productivity, International trade, finance and competitiveness
Bitcoin Adoption and Beliefs in Canada Staff working paper 2021-60 Daniela Balutel, Christopher Henry, Jorge Vásquez, Marcel Voia Using an economic model as well as survey data from the Bank of Canada, we study what factors influence the adoption of Bitcoin in Canada. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D8, D83, O, O3, O33 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Economic models, Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech
How Do Households Respond to Expected Inflation? An Investigation of Transmission Mechanisms Staff working paper 2024-44 Janet Hua Jiang, Rupal Kamdar, Kelin Lu, Daniela Puzzello We conduct surveys to study how consumer spending responds to higher inflation expectations. Most respondents spend the same, sticking to fixed budget plans or not considering inflation for spending decisions. About 20% decrease spending because they feel poorer and cut spending to invest in inflation-proof assets. Very few increase spending. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D1, D15, D8, D84, E, E2, E5, E52, E7 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Real economy and forecasting
How Oil Supply Shocks Affect the Global Economy: Evidence from Local Projections Staff discussion paper 2019-6 Olivier Gervais We provide empirical evidence on the impact of oil supply shocks on global aggregates. To do this, we first extract structural oil supply shocks from a standard oil-price determination model found in the literature. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, C5, E, E3, E37, Q, Q4, Q43 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness