June 21, 2008 Financial System Review - June 2008 Although there has been some improvement in conditions over the past several weeks, strains in global credit markets have broadened since December.FSR Highlights - June 2008 Errata: Some factual errors in the June report "Bank of Canada Oversight Activities during 2007 under the Payment Clearing and Settlement Act" have been corrected. They concern (i) clarification of the U.S. Federal Reserve as lead overseer of CLS Bank and (ii) the steps taken by CDS on 14 August 2007 to assist issuers and participants holding defaulted ABCP. Content Type(s): Publications, Financial Stability Report
COVID-19 and bond market liquidity: alert, isolation and recovery Staff analytical note 2020-14 Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, Hayden Ford, Adrian Walton The disruption due to COVID-19 reverberated through the bond markets in three phases. In the first phase, dealers met the rising demand for liquidity. In the second, dealers reduced the supply of liquidity, and trading conditions worsened significantly. Finally, the market returned to relative stability following several interventions by the Bank of Canada. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E4 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Funds management, Market functioning, Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk
Technology Adoption in Input-Output Networks Staff working paper 2019-51 Xintong Han, Lei Xu We study how input-output networks affect the speed of technology adoption. In particular, we model the decision to adopt the programming language Python 3 by software packages. Python 3 provides advanced features but is not backward compatible with Python 2, which implies it comes with adoption costs. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C6, C61, L, L2, L23, L8, L86, O, O1, O14, O3, O33 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Structural challenges, Digitalization and productivity
Assessing global potential output growth: April 2025 Staff analytical note 2025-15 Samuel Boulanger, Raheeb Dastagir, Daniel de Munnik, Eshini Ekanayake, Kun Mo, Walter Muiruri, Faiza Noor, Sabreena Obaid, Louis Poirier This note presents the annual update of Bank of Canada staff estimates for growth in global potential output. These estimates served as key inputs to the analysis supporting the April 2025 Monetary Policy Report. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E1, E2, F, F0, F1, O, O3, O33, O4 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply, Digitalization and productivity, International trade, finance and competitiveness
May 13, 2014 The Art and Science of Forecasting the Real Price of Oil Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2014 Christiane Baumeister Forecasts of the price of crude oil play a significant role in the conduct of monetary policy, especially for commodity producers such as Canada. This article presents a range of recently developed forecasting models that, when pooled together, can generate, on average, more accurate forecasts of the price of oil than the oil futures curve. It also illustrates how policy-makers can evaluate the risks associated with the baseline oil price forecast and how they can determine the causes of past oil price fluctuations. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, E, E3, E32, Q, Q4, Q43
Bitcoin Adoption and Beliefs in Canada Staff working paper 2021-60 Daniela Balutel, Christopher Henry, Jorge Vásquez, Marcel Voia Using an economic model as well as survey data from the Bank of Canada, we study what factors influence the adoption of Bitcoin in Canada. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D8, D83, O, O3, O33 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Economic models, Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech
Fiscal Spillovers: The Case of US Corporate and Personal Income Taxes Staff working paper 2021-41 Madeline Hanson, Daniela Hauser, Romanos Priftis How do changes to personal and corporate income tax rates in the United States affect its trading partners? Spillover effects from cuts in the two taxes differ. They are generally small and negative for corporate taxes, but sizable and positive for personal income taxes. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E6, E62, F, F4, F44, H, H2, H20 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
How Do Households Respond to Expected Inflation? An Investigation of Transmission Mechanisms Staff working paper 2024-44 Janet Hua Jiang, Rupal Kamdar, Kelin Lu, Daniela Puzzello We conduct surveys to study how consumer spending responds to higher inflation expectations. Most respondents spend the same, sticking to fixed budget plans or not considering inflation for spending decisions. About 20% decrease spending because they feel poorer and cut spending to invest in inflation-proof assets. Very few increase spending. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D1, D15, D8, D84, E, E2, E5, E52, E7 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Real economy and forecasting
The Role of Beliefs in Entering and Exiting the Bitcoin Market Staff working paper 2024-22 Daniela Balutel, Christopher Henry, Jorge Vásquez, Marcel Voia We develop a model that links investors’ decisions to enter or exit the Bitcoin market with their beliefs about the survival of Bitcoin. Empirical testing using Canadian data reveals that beliefs strongly influence both entries and exits, and this impact varies with time and ownership status. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D8, D83, E, E4, E41, O, O3, O33 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Household and business credit, Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech