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3035 Results

How Far Can Forecasting Models Forecast? Forecast Content Horizons for Some Important Macroeconomic Variables

Staff Working Paper 2007-1 John Galbraith, Greg Tkacz
For stationary transformations of variables, there exists a maximum horizon beyond which forecasts can provide no more information about the variable than is present in the unconditional mean. Meteorological forecasts, typically excepting only experimental or exploratory situations, are not reported beyond this horizon; by contrast, little generally accepted information about such maximum horizons is available for economic variables.

A Search Model of Venture Capital, Entrepreneurship, and Unemployment

Staff Working Paper 2005-24 Robin Boadway, Oana Secrieru, Marianne Vigneault
The authors develop a search model of venture capital in which the number of successful matches of entrepreneurs and venture capitalists (VCs) at any moment in time is a function of the number of entrepreneurs searching for funds, the number of VCs searching for entrepreneurs, and the number of vacancies posted by each VC.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial markets, Fiscal policy, Labour markets JEL Code(s): D, D8, D82, G, G1, G18, G2, G24, H, H2, H21, J, J6, J64

Did U.S. Consumers Respond to the 2014–2015 Oil Price Shock? Evidence from the Consumer Expenditure Survey

Staff Working Paper 2018-13 Patrick Alexander, Louis Poirier
The impact of oil price shocks on the U.S. economy is a topic of considerable debate. In this paper, we examine the response of U.S. consumers to the 2014–2015 negative oil price shock using representative survey data from the Consumer Expenditure Survey.

Time-Consistent Management of a Liquidity Trap with Government Debt

Staff Working Paper 2018-38 Dmitry Matveev
This paper studies optimal discretionary monetary and fiscal policy when the lower bound on nominal interest rates is occasionally binding in a model with nominal rigidities and long-term government debt. At the lower bound it is optimal for the government to temporarily reduce debt.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Fiscal policy, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E6, E62, E63

The Effect of Exchange Rate Movements on Heterogeneous Plants: A Quantile Regression Analysis

Staff Working Paper 2010-25 Ben Tomlin, Loretta Fung
In this paper, we examine how the effect of movements in the real exchange rate on manufacturing plants depends on the plant's placement within the productivity distribution. Appreciations of the local currency expose domestic plants to more competition from abroad as export opportunities shrink and import competition intensifies.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Exchange rates, Market structure and pricing, Productivity JEL Code(s): D, D2, D21, F, F1, L, L1, L16, L6, L60

A Fresh Look at the Publication and Citation Gap Between Men and Women: Insights from Economics and Political Science

Staff Working Paper 2025-13 Daniel Stockemer, Gabriela Galassi, Engi Abou-El-Kheir
In recent years, significant efforts have been made to attract more women into academia and to support their careers, with the goal of increasing their representation.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Labour markets JEL Code(s): A, A1, A14, I, I2, I23, J, J1, J16, J4, J44, J7, J71

Inventories, Stockouts, and ToTEM

Staff Discussion Paper 2010-8 Oleksiy Kryvtsov, Yang Zhang
Inventory investment is an important component of the Canadian business cycle. Despite its small average size – less than 1 per cent of output – it exhibits volatile procyclical fluctuations, accounting for almost one-third of output variance.

The Effects of Budget Rules on Fiscal Performance and Macroeconomic Stabilization

Staff Working Paper 1997-15 Jonathan Millar
Budget rules can be defined as legislated or constitutional constraints on government deficits, taxes, expenditures, or debt. This paper reviews the budget rules recently legislated in six of Canada's provinces and both of its territories, as well as budget rules in other OECD countries.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Fiscal policy JEL Code(s): E, E6, E62, H, H3, H6, H61
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