June 21, 2006 Credibility with Flexibility: The Evolution of Inflation-Targeting Regimes, 1990–2006 Bank of Canada Review - Summer 2006 Graydon Paulin Beginning with a review of the adoption of inflation targeting in a broad group of countries, Paulin focuses on changes in the design of inflation-targeting frameworks in light of fifteen years of accumulated experience. Included in the discussion are the use of numerical targets and ranges, the policy horizon, supporting institutional policy structures, and communication, including the publication of forecasts. A recurring theme is how much flexibility an inflation-targeting regime allows. The article concludes that the changes made to the frameworks have been relatively modest since their adoption, but in concert with the improved credibility that has resulted from central banks meeting their inflation-control targets, they have allowed an increasingly nuanced response to economic shocks. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Credibility, Inflation targets, Monetary policy framework
The Effect of Exchange Rate Movements on Heterogeneous Plants: A Quantile Regression Analysis Staff Working Paper 2010-25 Ben Tomlin, Loretta Fung In this paper, we examine how the effect of movements in the real exchange rate on manufacturing plants depends on the plant's placement within the productivity distribution. Appreciations of the local currency expose domestic plants to more competition from abroad as export opportunities shrink and import competition intensifies. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Exchange rates, Market structure and pricing, Productivity JEL Code(s): D, D2, D21, F, F1, L, L1, L16, L6, L60
A Bitcoin Standard: Lessons from the Gold Standard Staff Working Paper 2016-14 Warren E. Weber This paper imagines a world in which countries are on the Bitcoin standard, a monetary system in which all media of exchange are Bitcoin or are backed by it. The paper explores the similarities and differences between the Bitcoin standard and the gold standard and describes the media of exchange that would exist under the Bitcoin standard. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Digital currencies and fintech, Exchange rates, Financial services, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): E, E4, E41, E42, E5, E58
Price Discovery in Canadian and U.S. 10-Year Government Bond Markets Staff Working Paper 2007-43 Bryan Campbell, Scott Hendry This paper presents some new results on the price discovery process in both the Canadian and U.S. 10-year Government bond markets using high-frequency data not previously analyzed. Using techniques introduced by Hasbrouck (1995) and Gonzalo-Granger (1995), we look at the relative information content of cash and futures prices in the market for Canadian Government bonds using futures market data from the Montreal Exchange and OTC cash market data reflecting the inter-dealer market covered by CanPx. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial markets, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12, G13, G14
February 2, 2012 Banking Crises and Contagion: Empirical Evidence Financial System Review - December 2002 Eric Santor Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles
Volatility Risk and Economic Welfare Staff Working Paper 2017-20 Shaofeng Xu This paper examines the effects of time-varying volatility on welfare. I construct a tractable endogenous growth model with recursive preferences, stochastic volatility, and capital adjustment costs. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models JEL Code(s): E, E2, E3
Institutional Quality, Trade, and the Changing Distribution of World Income Staff Working Paper 2006-19 Brigitte Desroches, Michael Francis Conventional wisdom holds that institutional changes and trade liberalization are two main sources of growth in per capita income around the world. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Development economics, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F1, F11, F15, O, O1, O11, P, P4, P48
Regime Shifts in the Indicator Properties of Narrow Money in Canada Staff Working Paper 2006-6 Tracy Chan, Ramdane Djoudad, Jackson Loi Financial innovations and the removal of the reserve requirements in the early 1990s have made the distinction between demand and notice deposits arbitrary. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Monetary aggregates JEL Code(s): E, E4, E40, E42, E5, E50
The 1975–78 Anti-Inflation Program in Retrospect Staff Working Paper 2005-43 John Sargent The author provides an overview of the 1975–78 Anti-Inflation Program (AIP), in a background document prepared for a seminar organized by the Bank of Canada to mark the AIP's 30th anniversary. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Credibility, Fiscal policy, Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy implementation JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E5, E52, E6, E63, E64, E65
Should Central Banks Adjust Their Target Horizons in Response to House-Price Bubbles? Staff Discussion Paper 2007-4 Meenakshi Basant Roi, Rhys R. Mendes The authors investigate the implications of house-price bubbles for the optimal inflation-target horizon using a dynamic general-equilibrium model with credit frictions, house-price bubbles, and small open-economy features. They find that, given the distribution of shocks and inflation persistence over the past 25 years, the optimal target horizon for Canada tends to be at the lower […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Credit and credit aggregates, Economic models, Inflation targets, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E4, E42, E44, E5, E52, E58, E6, E61