Firm Size and Productivity Staff Working Paper 2008-45 Danny Leung, Césaire Meh, Yaz Terajima This paper examines the relationship between firm size and productivity. In contrast to previous studies, this paper offers evidence of the relationship not only from manufacturing firms, but from non-manufacturing firms as well. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Productivity JEL Code(s): L, L1, L11, L2, L25, O, O4, O47
Real Effects of Price Stability with Endogenous Nominal Indexation Staff Working Paper 2009-16 Césaire Meh, Vincenzo Quadrini, Yaz Terajima We study a model with repeated moral hazard where financial contracts are not fully indexed to inflation because nominal prices are observed with delay as in Jovanovic & Ueda (1997). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Financial markets, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, E3, E31, E4, E44, E5, E52
A Macroeconomic Model of an Epidemic with Silent Transmission and Endogenous Self-isolation Staff Working Paper 2020-50 Antonio Diez de los Rios We study the interaction between epidemics and economic decisions in a model that has silent transmission of the virus. We find that rational behaviour strongly diminishes the severity of the epidemic but worsens the economic recession. We also find that the detection and isolation of not only symptomatic individuals but also those who are infected and asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic can reduce the severity of the recession caused by the pandemic. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Economic models JEL Code(s): E, E1, H, H0, I, I1
Market Structure and the Diffusion of E-Commerce: Evidence from the Retail Banking Industry Staff Working Paper 2008-32 Jason Allen, Robert Clark, Jean-François Houde This paper studies the role that market structure plays in affecting the diffusion of electronic banking. Electronic banking (and electronic commerce more generally) reduces the cost of performing many types of transactions for firms. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): D, D1, D14, D4, G, G2, G21, L, L1
March 9, 2010 An Uncertain Past: Data Revisions and Monetary Policy in Canada Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2010 Greg Tkacz Many important economic variables are subject to revision. This article explains how, when, and why such revisions occur; how revisions to Canadian gross domestic product (GDP) compare with GDP revisions in some other countries; which GDP components are subject to the largest revisions; and how data revisions can affect policy decisions. The author finds that revisions to Canadian GDP tend to be smaller, on average, than those of some other countries, and that among the GDP components, exports and imports are most heavily revised. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Monetary policy and uncertainty
February 23, 2012 Medium-Term Fluctuations in Canadian House Prices Bank of Canada Review - Winter 2011-2012 Brian Peterson, Yi Zheng This article draws on theory and empirical evidence to examine a number of factors behind movements in Canadian house prices. It begins with an overview of the movements in house prices in Canada, using regional data to highlight factors that influence prices over the long run. It then turns to the central theme, that there are medium-run movements in prices not accounted for by long-run factors. Drawing on recent Bank of Canada research, the article discusses several factors behind these medium-run movements, including interest rates, expected price appreciation and market liquidity. The article concludes by identifying areas for future research that would further our understanding of fluctuations in house prices. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Econometric and statistical methods, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): R, R2, R21, R3, R31
How Far Can Forecasting Models Forecast? Forecast Content Horizons for Some Important Macroeconomic Variables Staff Working Paper 2007-1 John Galbraith, Greg Tkacz For stationary transformations of variables, there exists a maximum horizon beyond which forecasts can provide no more information about the variable than is present in the unconditional mean. Meteorological forecasts, typically excepting only experimental or exploratory situations, are not reported beyond this horizon; by contrast, little generally accepted information about such maximum horizons is available for economic variables. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53
August 23, 2003 Financial Developments in Canada: Past Trends and Future Challenges Bank of Canada Review - Summer 2003 Charles Freedman, Walter Engert Freedman and Engert focus on the changing pattern of lending and borrowing in Canada in the past thirty to forty years, including the types of financial instruments used and the relative roles of financial institutions and financial markets. They examine how borrowing mechanisms have changed over time and consider the challenges facing the Canadian financial sector, including whether our financial markets are in danger of disappearing because of the size and pre-eminence of U.S. financial markets. Some of the trends examined here include syndicated lending, securitization, and credit derivatives, a form of financial engineering that has become increasingly important in the last few years. They also study bond and equity markets to determine whether Canadian capital markets have been hollowed out or abandoned by Canadian firms and conclude that the data do not provide much support for that view. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial services, Recent economic and financial developments
Determinants of Borrowing Limits on Credit Cards Staff Working Paper 2005-7 Shubhasis Dey, Gene Mumy The difference between actual borrowings and borrowing limits alone generates information asymmetry in the credit card market. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): C, C3, D, D4, D8, D82
Calibrating the Magnitude of the Countercyclical Capital Buffer Using Market-Based Stress Tests Staff Working Paper 2018-54 Maarten van Oordt How much capital do banks need as a buffer to absorb severe shocks? By using historical stock market data, market-based stress tests help estimate the magnitude of capital buffers necessary to absorb severe but plausible shocks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): G, G1, G10, G2, G21, G28