June 17, 2019 Flexible Exchange Rates, Commodity Prices and Price Stability Remarks Lawrence L. Schembri Economics Society of Northern Alberta (ESNA) Edmonton, Alberta Deputy Governor Lawrence Schembri speaks before the Economics Society of Northern Alberta (ESNA). Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Subject(s): Financial system, Financial markets, Monetary policy, Economy/Economic growth, Inflation, Inflation targeting framework
PayTech and the D(ata) N(etwork) A(ctivities) of BigTech Platforms Staff working paper 2022-35 Jonathan Chiu, Thorsten Koeppl Why do BigTech platforms introduce payment services? We explore this using a model in which a monopoly platform faces a trade-off between the costs associated with privacy concerns and the revenue from data services. We then analyze the feedback effects between data and payments. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D8, E, E4, E42, L, L1 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech, Payment and financial market infrastructures, Retail payments
April 5, 2009 Unexpected Inflation and Redistribution of Wealth in Canada Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2009 Césaire Meh, Yaz Terajima One of the most important arguments in favour of price stability is that unexpected inflation generates changes in the distribution of income and wealth among different economic agents. These redistributions occur because many loans are specified in fixed dollar terms and unexpected inflation redistributes wealth from creditors to debtors by reducing the real value of nominal assets and liabilities. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles
May 13, 2014 The Art and Science of Forecasting the Real Price of Oil Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2014 Christiane Baumeister Forecasts of the price of crude oil play a significant role in the conduct of monetary policy, especially for commodity producers such as Canada. This article presents a range of recently developed forecasting models that, when pooled together, can generate, on average, more accurate forecasts of the price of oil than the oil futures curve. It also illustrates how policy-makers can evaluate the risks associated with the baseline oil price forecast and how they can determine the causes of past oil price fluctuations. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, E, E3, E32, Q, Q4, Q43
Potential output in Canada: 2026 assessment Staff analytical paper 2026-19 Alex Chernoff, Christopher Hajzler, Stéphanie Houle, Gabriella Ruggero, Olena Senyuta, Karanbir Sohal, Walter Steingress, Temel Taskin Growth in potential output is expected to drop from 2.3% in 2025 to 1.2% in 2026 given slowing population growth, US tariffs and trade policy uncertainty. It is then estimated to pick up to an average of 1.5% over 2027–29 as strengthening business and government investment supports trend labour productivity (TLP). Gradual adoption of artificial intelligence is also expected to lift TLP growth over the projection horizon. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical paper JEL Code(s): E, E2, E3, E4, E5 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
May 14, 2015 Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2015 In this issue, Bank researchers discuss inflation dynamics and global trade following the 2007–09 financial crisis. Other articles explore changes to the governance and regulation of the Canadian payments system and outline the banking services provided by the Bank of Canada. Finally, the results of the 2013 Methods-of-Payment Survey are presented. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review
April 22, 2004 Research in Financial Services and Public Policy - Filling the Gaps Remarks David Dodge Conference on Financial Services and Public Policy Schulich School of Business at York University Toronto, Ontario For five years, the research program here at Schulich has helped to support and nurture a Canadian academic community focused on financial services. In doing so, the program has encouraged researchers to fill the gaps in our knowledge and help policy-makers and regulators to do a better job. After five years, it's useful to think back and recall the motivations for establishing this program in the first place. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
CBDC in the Market for Payments at the Point of Sale: Equilibrium Impact and Incumbent Responses Staff working paper 2024-52 Walter Engert, Oleksandr Shcherbakov, André Stenzel We simulate introducing a central bank digital currency (CBDC) and consider consumer adoption, merchant acceptance and usage at the point of sale. Modest adoption frictions significantly inhibit CBDC market penetration along all three dimensions. Incumbent responses to restore pre-CBDC market shares are moderate to small and further reduce the impact of a CBDC. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, C51, D, D1, D12, E, E4, E42, L, L1, L14, L5, L52 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech, Payment and financial market infrastructures, Retail payments
Central Bank Digital Currency and Banking: Macroeconomic Benefits of a Cash-Like Design Staff working paper 2021-63 Jonathan Chiu, Mohammad Davoodalhosseini Should a CBDC be more like cash or bank deposits? An interest-bearing, cash-like CBDC not only makes payments more efficient but also increases total demand. This has positive effects on other transactions, inducing more deposit taking and lending and, thus, bank intermediation. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E5, E50, E58 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech, Payment and financial market infrastructures