June 22, 2005 Estimating the Impact of Monetary Policy Surprises on Fixed-Income Markets Bank of Canada Review - Summer 2005 Jason Andreou In the interest of better understanding the impact of the Bank of Canada's policy actions on bond and bill yields, Andreou assesses the impact of policy-rate announcements on short and long bonds over the period 1996 to 2004. To aid the analysis, policy actions are decomposed into expected and surprise components. He also examines whether the introduction of fixed announcement dates (FADs) has affected these results, including markets' perceptions. The main finding is that unexpected policy actions by the Bank have a significant effect on market rates at the shorter end of the yield curve, with the effect dissipating as the maturity increases. A second finding, that the impact on longer-term interest rates of a surprise action by the Bank has diminished since the introduction of the FADs, suggests that the Bank's long-term policy goals are well understood and credible. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles
Borrowing Costs for Government of Canada Treasury Bills Staff analytical note 2019-28 Jabir Sandhu, Adrian Walton, Jessica Lee The cost of borrowing Government of Canada treasury bills (t-bills) in the repurchase (repo) market is mainly explained by the relationship between the parties involved. Some pairs of parties conduct most of their repos for t-bills rather than bonds, and at relatively high borrowing costs. We speculate that these pairs have formed a mutually beneficial service relationship in which one party consistently receives t-bills, while the other receives cash at a relatively cheap rate. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): G, G1, G10, G11, G12, G2, G20, G21, G23, G3, G32 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Funds management, Market functioning
Saving after Retirement and Preferences for Residual Wealth Staff working paper 2024-21 Giulio Fella, Martin B. Holm, Thomas Michael Pugh We estimate a model of households in Norway with bequest motives, health-dependent utility, and uncertain longevity and health. Our estimates imply strong bequest motives for households both with and without offspring. We interpret this as suggestive evidence that utility from residual wealth represents forces beyond an altruistic bequest motive. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D1, D11, D12, D14, E, E2, E21 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
May 13, 2014 The Art and Science of Forecasting the Real Price of Oil Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2014 Christiane Baumeister Forecasts of the price of crude oil play a significant role in the conduct of monetary policy, especially for commodity producers such as Canada. This article presents a range of recently developed forecasting models that, when pooled together, can generate, on average, more accurate forecasts of the price of oil than the oil futures curve. It also illustrates how policy-makers can evaluate the risks associated with the baseline oil price forecast and how they can determine the causes of past oil price fluctuations. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, E, E3, E32, Q, Q4, Q43
Central Bank Digital Currency and Banking: Macroeconomic Benefits of a Cash-Like Design Staff working paper 2021-63 Jonathan Chiu, Mohammad Davoodalhosseini Should a CBDC be more like cash or bank deposits? An interest-bearing, cash-like CBDC not only makes payments more efficient but also increases total demand. This has positive effects on other transactions, inducing more deposit taking and lending and, thus, bank intermediation. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E5, E50, E58 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech, Payment and financial market infrastructures
Consumer Cash Withdrawal Behaviour: Branch Networks and Online Financial Innovation Staff working paper 2021-28 Heng Chen, Matthew Strathearn, Marcel Voia The physical network of bank branches is important in how consumers manage their cash holdings. This paper estimates how consumer withdrawal behaviour responds to the distance they must travel to their branch. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): G, G2, G21, R, R2, R22 Research Theme(s): Money and payments, Cash and bank notes, Digital assets and fintech
September 15, 2008 The Bank of Canada's Senior Loan Officer Survey Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2008 Umar Faruqui, Paul Gilbert, Wendy Kei The Bank of Canada maintains regular contact with financial institutions as part of the information-gathering process that feeds into the larger set of information used to arrive at its monetary policy decision. Since 1999, the Bank has been conducting a quarterly survey of the business-lending practices of major Canadian financial institutions. Analysis of the information collected shows that it is correlated with future growth in both credit and business investment. This article focuses on how the survey is conducted and describes the construction of the summary statistics, highlighting the key statistical relationships in the historical survey data. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles
December 23, 2004 Financial System Review - December 2004 The Canadian financial system comprises financial markets, financial institutions, and the clearing and settlement systems. Content Type(s): Publications, Financial Stability Report
November 11, 2008 Merchants' Costs of Accepting Means of Payment: Is Cash the Least Costly? Bank of Canada Review - Winter 2008-2009 Carlos Arango, Varya Taylor In a competitive sales environment, merchants are compelled to offer consumers the option of paying for goods and services using a variety of payment methods, including cash, debit card, or credit card. Each method entails different costs and benefits to merchants. To better understand the costs of accepting retail payments, the Bank of Canada surveyed over 500 Canadian merchants and found that most consider cash the least costly. This article investigated this perception by calculating the variable costs per transaction of accepting different means of payment. The findings are that costs for each payment method vary by merchant and transaction value, with debit cards the least costly payment for a broad cross-section of merchants. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles