The uneven economic consequences of COVID 19: A structural analysis Staff analytical note 2021-17 Martin Kuncl, Austin McWhirter, Alexander Ueberfeldt Using a structural model, we study the economic consequences of the COVID-19 shock. The uneven consequences, such as higher unemployment among young households, amplify the negative implications for the macroeconomy, household vulnerabilities and consumption inequality. Government support programs have stimulated the economy and lowered inequality and medium-term vulnerabilities. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E2, E20, E5, E52, E6, E62 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Household and business credit, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy tools and implementation, Real economy and forecasting
Macroeconomic Disasters and Consumption Smoothing: International Evidence from Historical Data Staff working paper 2023-4 Lorenzo Pozzi, Barbara Sadaba Does consumption smoothing fundamentally decrease during macroeconomic disasters? This paper uses a large historical dataset (1870–2016) for 16 industrial economies to show that during macroeconomic disasters (e.g., wars, pandemics, depressions) aggregate consumption and income are significantly less decoupled than during normal times. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C2, C23, E, E2, E21 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Household and business credit, Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
The Power of Helicopter Money Revisited: A New Keynesian Perspective Staff discussion paper 2020-1 Thomas J. Carter, Rhys R. Mendes We analyze money financing of fiscal transfers (helicopter money) in two simple New Keynesian models: a “textbook” model in which all money is non-interest-bearing (e.g., all money is currency), and a more realistic model with interest-bearing reserves. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): E, E1, E12, E4, E41, E43, E5, E51, E52, E58, E6, E61, E63 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Monetary policy tools and implementation
Dynamic Privacy Choices Staff working paper 2022-8 Shota Ichihashi Consumers often express concerns about lack of privacy, but they still give up a lot of data to digital platforms. This paper builds a dynamic game-theoretic model of data collection and privacy protection, which potentially explains consumers’ behaviour. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D8, D82, D83 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech
Seasonal Adjustment of Weekly Data Staff discussion paper 2024-17 Jeffrey Mollins, Rachit Lumb The industry standard for seasonally adjusting data, X-13ARIMA-SEATS, is not suitable for high-frequency data. We summarize and assess several of the most popular seasonal adjustment methods for weekly data given the increased availability and promise of non-traditional data at higher frequencies. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): C, C1, C4, C5, C52, C8, E, E0, E01, E2, E21 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
June 17, 2019 Flexible Exchange Rates, Commodity Prices and Price Stability Remarks Lawrence L. Schembri Economics Society of Northern Alberta (ESNA) Edmonton, Alberta Deputy Governor Lawrence Schembri speaks before the Economics Society of Northern Alberta (ESNA). Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Subject(s): Financial system, Financial markets, Monetary policy, Economy/Economic growth, Inflation, Inflation targeting framework
Preferences, Monetary Policy and Household Inflation Staff working paper 2024-45 Geoffrey R. Dunbar I quantify the importance of changes in household preferences on household inflation rates using 11 years of scanner data for 11,000 US households. My results suggest that changes in household preferences are an important driver of inflation dynamics at the household level. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D1, D12, E, E5, E52, E58 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Monetary policy tools and implementation
December 15, 2023 The path to price stability Remarks Tiff Macklem Canadian Club Toronto Toronto, Ontario Governor Tiff Macklem discusses how the economy will continue to adjust to higher interest rates in the year ahead, and outlines what Canadians can expect from the Bank of Canada. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Subject(s): Monetary policy, Economic models, Economy/Economic growth, Inflation, Inflation targeting framework
November 13, 2000 Seminar Summary: Price Stability and the Long-Run Target for Monetary Policy Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2000 Allan Crawford On 8 and 9 June 2000, the Bank held a seminar to examine some key issues affecting the upcoming decision on Canada's inflation-control target for the period after 2001. The main issues covered at the seminar were the extent of downward nominal-wage rigidity and its implications for employment as well as the relative merits of price-level targeting versus inflation targeting. Another critical question that was discussed was how to balance the evidence on all the relevant issues in order to develop an overall view on the appropriate long-run target. The author gives a brief overview of the seminar followed by detailed summaries of individual papers. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles
The Role of Beliefs in Entering and Exiting the Bitcoin Market Staff working paper 2024-22 Daniela Balutel, Christopher Henry, Jorge Vásquez, Marcel Voia We develop a model that links investors’ decisions to enter or exit the Bitcoin market with their beliefs about the survival of Bitcoin. Empirical testing using Canadian data reveals that beliefs strongly influence both entries and exits, and this impact varies with time and ownership status. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D8, D83, E, E4, E41, O, O3, O33 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Household and business credit, Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech