Fintech: Is This Time Different? A Framework for Assessing Risks and Opportunities for Central Banks Staff Discussion Paper 2017-10 Meyer Aaron, Francisco Rivadeneyra, Samantha Sohal We investigate the risks and opportunities to the mandates of central banks arising from fintech developments. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Digital currencies and fintech, Financial institutions, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): E, E4, E42, G, G1, G2, L, L1
Unsecured Debt, Consumer Bankruptcy, and Small Business Staff Working Paper 2008-5 Césaire Meh, Yaz Terajima In this paper we develop a quantitative model of entrepreneurial activity (risk-taking) and consumer bankruptcy choices and use the model to study the effects of bankruptcy regulations on entrepreneurial activity, bankruptcy rate and welfare. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): D, D3, D31, E, E2, E21, J, J2, J23
Anchored Inflation Expectations: What Recent Data Reveal Staff Working Paper 2025-5 Olena Kostyshyna, Isabelle Salle, Hung Truong We analyze micro-level data from the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations through the lens of a heterogeneous-expectations model to study how inflation expectations form over the business cycle. We provide new insights into how households form expectations, documenting that forecasting behaviours, attention and noise in beliefs vary across socio-demographic groups and correlate with views about monetary policy. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): D, D8, D84, E, E3, E31, E7, E70
Are Bygones not Bygones? Modeling Price Level Targeting with an Escape Clause and Lessons from the Gold Standard Staff Working Paper 2008-27 Paul Masson, Malik Shukayev Like the gold standard, price level targeting (PT) involves not letting past deviations of inflation be bygones; both regimes return the price level (or price of gold) to its target. The experience of suspension of the gold standard in World War I, resumption in the 1920s (for some countries at a different parity), and final abandonment is reviewed. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Credibility, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E5, E52
A Distributional Approach to Realized Volatility Staff Working Paper 2013-49 Selma Chaker, Nour Meddahi This paper proposes new measures of the integrated variance, measures which use high-frequency bid-ask spreads and quoted depths. The traditional approach assumes that the mid-quote is a good measure of frictionless price. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets JEL Code(s): C, C1, C14, C5, C51, C58
A Tractable Monetary Model Under General Preferences Staff Working Paper 2013-7 Tsz-Nga Wong Consider the monetary model of Lagos and Wright (JPE 2005) but with general preferences and general production. I show that preferences satisfying UXXUHH – (UXH)2 = 0 is a sufficient condition for the existence and uniqueness of monetary equilibrium with degenerate money distribution. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models JEL Code(s): D, D8, D83, E, E4, E40
Assessing the effects of higher immigration on the Canadian economy and inflation Staff Analytical Note 2023-17 Julien Champagne, Erik Ens, Xing Guo, Olena Kostyshyna, Alexander Lam, Corinne Luu, Sarah Miller, Patrick Sabourin, Joshua Slive, Temel Taskin, Jaime Trujillo, Shu Lin Wee We assess the complex macroeconomic implications of Canada’s recent population increases. We find that newcomers significantly boost the non-inflationary, potential growth of the economy, but existing imbalances in the housing sector may be exacerbated. Greater housing supply is needed to complement the long-term economic benefits of population growth. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Domestic demand and components, Housing, Inflation and prices, Labour markets, Potential output, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): A, A1, A10, E, E2, E20, E3, E31, J, J1, J11, J15
Price-Level Targeting and Stabilization Policy: A Review Staff Discussion Paper 2007-11 Steve Ambler The author surveys recent articles on the costs and benefits of price-level targeting versus inflation targeting, focusing on the benefits and costs of price-level targeting as a tool for stabilization policy. He reviews papers that examine how price-level targeting affects the short-run trade-off between output and inflation variability by influencing expectations of future inflation. The […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E32, E5, E52
The Macroeconomic Implications of Coholding Staff Working Paper 2024-16 Michael Boutros, Andrej Mijakovic Coholder households simultaneously carry high-cost credit card debt and low-yield cash. We study the implications of this behavior for fiscal and monetary policy, finding that coholder households have smaller consumption responses in the short run but larger responses in the long run. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Economic models, Fiscal policy, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, E4, E44, E6, E62, G, G5, G51
Regime Shifts in the Indicator Properties of Narrow Money in Canada Staff Working Paper 2006-6 Tracy Chan, Ramdane Djoudad, Jackson Loi Financial innovations and the removal of the reserve requirements in the early 1990s have made the distinction between demand and notice deposits arbitrary. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Monetary aggregates JEL Code(s): E, E4, E40, E42, E5, E50