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56 Results

Expectations and Monetary Policy: Experimental Evidence

Staff Working Paper 2013-44 Oleksiy Kryvtsov, Luba Petersen
The effectiveness of monetary policy depends, to a large extent, on market expectations of its future actions. In a standard New Keynesian business-cycle model with rational expectations, systematic monetary policy reduces the variance of inflation and the output gap by at least two-thirds.

Inflation, Output, and Welfare in the Laboratory

Staff Working Paper 2023-11 Janet Hua Jiang, Daniela Puzzello, Cathy Zhang
We investigate the effect of inflation on output and welfare in the laboratory. Consistent with monetary theory, we find that inflation acts as a tax on monetary exchange and reduces output and welfare.
November 13, 2014

Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2014

In this issue, Bank staff discuss recent developments in experimental macroeconomics, research results on price-level and unemployment thresholds in forward guidance, and the spillover effects of quantitative easing in advance economies. Articles also explore the competitiveness strategies of Canadian firms as well as their use of financial derivatives.

A Horse Race of Monetary Policy Regimes: An Experimental Investigation

Staff Working Paper 2022-33 Olena Kostyshyna, Luba Petersen, Jing Yang
How should central banks design monetary policy in stable times and during recessions? We run a horse race between five monetary policy frameworks in an experimental laboratory to assess how well the different approaches can manage the public’s expectations and stabilize the economy.

How Do Central Bank Projections and Forward Guidance Influence Private-Sector Forecasts?

Staff Working Paper 2018-2 Monica Jain, Christopher S. Sutherland
We construct a 23-country panel data set to consider the effect of central bank projections and forward guidance on private-sector forecast disagreement. We find that central bank projections and forward guidance matter mainly for private-sector forecast disagreement surrounding upcoming policy rate decisions and matter less for private-sector macroeconomic forecasts.

Inflation Targeting and Liquidity Traps Under Endogenous Credibility

Staff Working Paper 2019-9 Cars Hommes, Joep Lustenhouwer
Policy implications are derived for an inflation-targeting central bank, whose credibility is endogenous and depends on its past ability to achieve its targets. This is done in a New Keynesian framework with heterogeneous and boundedly rational expectations.
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