Risk, Entropy, and the Transformation of Distributions Staff Working Paper 2002-11 Mark Reesor, Don McLeish The exponential family, relative entropy, and distortion are methods of transforming probability distributions. We establish a link between those methods, focusing on the relation between relative entropy and distortion. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): C, C0, C1, D, D8, G, G0
January 29, 2000 Annual Report 1999 The Canadian economy regained strong momentum in 1999 as the U.S. economy remained vigorous, the global economy recovered, and commodity prices moved upwards. Content Type(s): Publications, Annual Report
Interest on Cash, Fundamental Value Process and Bubble Formation on Experimental Asset Markets Staff Working Paper 2014-18 Giovanni Giusti, Janet Hua Jiang, Yiping Xu We study the formation of price bubbles on experimental asset markets where cash earns interest. There are two main conclusions. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Financial markets, Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C9, C90, G, G1, G10
Understanding the Systemic Implications of Climate Transition Risk: Applying a Framework Using Canadian Financial System Data Staff Discussion Paper 2023-32 Gabriel Bruneau, Javier Ojea Ferreiro, Andrew Plummer, Marie-Christine Tremblay, Aidan Witts Our study aims to gain insight on financial stability and climate transition risk. We develop a methodological framework that captures the direct effects of a stressful climate transition shock as well as the indirect—or systemic—implications of these direct effects. We apply this framework using data from the Canadian financial system. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Climate change, Economic models, Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C6, C63, G, G0, G01, G1, G10, G2, G20, Q, Q5, Q54
The Role of International Financial Integration in Monetary Policy Transmission Staff Working Paper 2024-3 Jing Cynthia Wu, Yinxi Xie, Ji Zhang We propose an open-economy New Keynesian model with financial integration that allows financial intermediaries to hold foreign long-term bonds. We study the implications of financial integration on monetary policy transmission. Among various aspects of financial integration, the bond duration plays a major role. These results hold for conventional and unconventional monetary policies. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Central bank research, International financial markets, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, E5, E52, F, F3, F36, F4, F42
What Explains Month-End Funding Pressure in Canada? Staff Discussion Paper 2017-9 Christopher S. Sutherland The Canadian overnight repo market persistently shows signs of latent funding pressure around month-end periods. Both the overnight repo rate and Bank of Canada liquidity provision tend to rise in these windows. This paper proposes three non-mutually exclusive hypotheses to explain this phenomenon. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Financial markets, Interest rates, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy implementation, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E4, E41, E43, E5, E52, E58, F, F3, F36, G, G1, G14, G15, G2, G21
Are Long-Horizon Expectations (De-)Stabilizing? Theory and Experiments Staff Working Paper 2019-27 George Evans, Cars Hommes, Isabelle Salle, Bruce McGough Most models in finance assume that agents make trading plans over the infinite future. We consider instead that they are boundedly rational and may only form forecasts over a limited horizon. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Central bank research, Economic models, Financial markets JEL Code(s): C, C9, C92, D, D8, D84, E
Behavioral Learning Equilibria in New Keynesian Models Staff Working Paper 2022-42 Cars Hommes, Kostas Mavromatis, Tolga Özden, Mei Zhu We introduce behavioral learning equilibria (BLE) into DSGE models with boundedly rational agents using simple but optimal first order autoregressive forecasting rules. The Smets-Wouters DSGE model with BLE is estimated and fits well with inflation survey expectations. As a policy application, we show that learning requires a lower degree of interest rate smoothing. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models, Inflation and prices, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, D, D8, D83, D84, E, E3, E6, E62
Composite Likelihood Estimation of an Autoregressive Panel Probit Model with Random Effects Staff Working Paper 2019-16 Kerem Tuzcuoglu Modeling and estimating persistent discrete data can be challenging. In this paper, we use an autoregressive panel probit model where the autocorrelation in the discrete variable is driven by the autocorrelation in the latent variable. In such a non-linear model, the autocorrelation in an unobserved variable results in an intractable likelihood containing high-dimensional integrals. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Credit risk management, Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models JEL Code(s): C, C2, C23, C25, C5, C58, G, G2, G24
Learning, Equilibrium Trend, Cycle, and Spread in Bond Yields Staff Working Paper 2020-14 Guihai Zhao This equilibrium model explains the trend in long-term yields and business-cycle movements in short-term yields and yield spreads. The less-frequent inverted yield curves (and less-frequent recessions) after the 1990s are due to recent secular stagnation and procyclical inflation expectations. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Financial markets, Interest rates JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, G, G0, G00, G1, G12