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In 2005, the Bank of Canada celebrated its 70th anniversary. Since the Bank opened its doors in March 1935, it has evolved into a national institution at the heart of Canada’s economy. We had a lot to celebrate in 2005—particularly our progress over the past 70 yearsand our continuing contribution to the economic and financial well-being of Canadians.

The Governing Council judges that the risks to the Canadian financial system have decreased somewhat relative to the December FSR, but that the overall level of risk remains high. The key risks are similar to those highlighted in December, and emanate primarily from the external environment.

Interest rates are working to moderate spending and inflation is easing gradually, though underlying pressures are proving persistent. The Bank projects that inflation will stay around 3% through the first half of 2024, returning to target in 2025.

We present a two-country model featuring risky lending and cross-border interbank market frictions.

This issue features a summary of the Bank’s annual conference, Financial Intermediation and Vulnerabilities, which took place in October 2012, as well as two articles that present analysis of international macroeconomic coordination since the global financial crisis and the U.S. recovery from the Great Recession.

The financial system makes an important contribution to the welfare of all Canadians. The ability of households and firms to confidently hold and transfer financial assets is one of the fundamental building blocks of the Canadian economy.

The year 2007 was marked by sharply increased volatility in financial and foreign exchange markets, and a widening of credit spreads. Despite financial market turbulence, the Canadian economy continued to expand, and inflation remained close to our target of 2 per cent. In this, my final Annual Report message, I begin by reviewing the economic and financial developments and challenges of the past year. I then highlight seven important ongoing challenges faced by Canada and the Bank during my seven years as Governor.

The premium on “on-the-run” Treasuries is an anomaly. I explain it using a model in which primary dealers hold inventories of Treasuries. I use the model to analyze the effects of granting access to central bank facilities.

Although there has been some improvement in conditions over the past several weeks, strains in global credit markets have broadened since December.

FSR Highlights - June 2008

Errata: Some factual errors in the June report "Bank of Canada Oversight Activities during 2007 under the Payment Clearing and Settlement Act" have been corrected. They concern (i) clarification of the U.S. Federal Reserve as lead overseer of CLS Bank and (ii) the steps taken by CDS on 14 August 2007 to assist issuers and participants holding defaulted ABCP.

In this issue of the Financial System Review, the Governing Council judges that the risks to the stability of Canada’s financial system remain high, as in December. The sources of the key risks are broadly the same as those highlighted at that time and emanate primarily from the external environment.

Errata: The colour labels for Chart 11 in the June 2012 issue and for Chart 12 in the December 2011 isssue were defined incorrectly. See revised charts.