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809 Results

Testing for Financial Contagion with Applications to the Canadian Banking System

Staff Working Paper 2009-14 Fuchun Li
The author proposes a new test for financial contagion based on a non-parametric measure of the cross-market correlation. The test does not depend on the assumption that the data are drawn from a given probability distribution; therefore, it allows for maximal flexibility in fitting into the data.

Securitization under Asymmetric Information over the Business Cycle

Staff Working Paper 2015-9 Martin Kuncl
This paper studies the efficiency of financial intermediation through securitization in a model with heterogeneous investment projects and asymmetric information about the quality of securitized assets. I show that when retaining part of the risk, the issuer of securitized assets may credibly signal its quality.

Short Changed? The Market's Reaction to the Short Sale Ban of 2008

Staff Working Paper 2009-23 Louis Gagnon, Jonathan Witmer
Do short sales restrictions have an impact on security prices? We address this question in the context of a natural experiment surrounding the short sale ban of 2008 using a comprehensive sample of Canadian stocks cross-listed in the U.S.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial markets, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F3, F30, G, G0, G01, G1, G18, G2, G20

How to Predict Financial Stress? An Assessment of Markov Switching Models

Staff Working Paper 2017-32 Benjamin Klaus, Thibaut Duprey
This paper predicts phases of the financial cycle by using a continuous financial stress measure in a Markov switching framework. The debt service ratio and property market variables signal a transition to a high financial stress regime, while economic sentiment indicators provide signals for a transition to a tranquil state.

Canadian Short-Term Interest Rates and the BAX Futures Market: Analysis of the Impact of Volatility on Hedging Activity and the Correlation of Returns between Markets

Staff Working Paper 1997-18 David Watt
This paper analyses how Canadian financial firms manage short-term interest rate risk through the use of BAX futures contracts. The results show that the most effective hedging strategy is, on average, a static strategy based on linear regression that assumes constant variances, even though dynamic models allowing for time-varying variances are found to have superior explanatory power.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial markets, Interest rates JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43

The Evolution of Canada’s Global Export Market Share

Staff Working Paper 2012-31 Daniel de Munnik, Jocelyn Jacob, Wesley Sze
Following gains during the 1990s, Canada’s global market share of goods exports has declined markedly in recent years. In this regard, the constant market share analysis framework is used to decompose changes in Canada’s global market share into competitiveness and structural effects over the 1990‐2010 period, as well as to draw some comparisons to a number of other countries.

An Econometric Examination of the Trend Unemployment Rate in Canada

Staff Working Paper 1996-7 Denise Côté, Doug Hostland
This paper attempts to identify the trend unemployment rate, an empirical concept, using cointegration theory. The authors examine whether there is a cointegrating relationship between the observed unemployment rate and various structural factors, focussing neither on the non-accelerating-inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) nor on the natural rate of unemployment, but rather on the trend unemployment rate, which they define in terms of cointegration.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Labour markets JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24

Optimization in a Simulation Setting: Use of Function Approximation in Debt Strategy Analysis

Staff Working Paper 2007-13 David Bolder, Tiago Rubin
The stochastic simulation model suggested by Bolder (2003) for the analysis of the federal government's debt-management strategy provides a wide variety of useful information. It does not, however, assist in determining an optimal debt-management strategy for the government in its current form.

Aggregate and Welfare Effects of Redistribution of Wealth Under Inflation and Price-Level Targeting

Staff Working Paper 2008-31 Césaire Meh, José-Víctor Ríos-Rull, Yaz Terajima
Since the work of Doepke and Schneider (2006a) and Meh and Terajima (2008), we know that inflation causes major redistribution of wealth – between households and the government, between nationals and foreigners, and between households within the same country.

The Federal Reserve's Dual Mandate: A Time-Varying Monetary Policy Priority Index for the United States

Staff Working Paper 2006-11 René Lalonde, Nicolas Parent
In the United States, the Federal Reserve has a dual mandate of promoting stable inflation and maximum employment. Since the Fed directly controls only one instrument - the federal funds rate - the authors argue that the Fed's priorities continuously alternate between inflation and economic activity.
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