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798 Results

ToTEM: The Bank of Canada's New Quarterly Projection Model

Technical Report No. 97 Stephen Murchison, Andrew Rennison
The authors provide a detailed technical description of the Terms-of-Trade Economic Model (ToTEM), which replaced the Quarterly Projection Model (QPM) in December 2005 as the Bank's principal projection and policy-analysis model for the Canadian economy.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models JEL Code(s): E, E1, E17, E2, E20, E3, E30, E4, E40, E5, E50, F, F4, F41
May 13, 2014

The Canadian Dollar as a Reserve Currency

This article provides an overview of the growth of Canadian-dollar-denominated assets in official foreign reserves. Based on International Monetary Fund data and on internal Bank of Canada analysis, we estimate that the total reserve holdings of Canadian-dollar assets increased from negligible levels before 2008 to around US$200 billion in the third quarter of 2013. We discuss the determinants of this increase, as well as its potential impact on Canadian debt markets, for example, lower yields and therefore reduced financing costs for the Government of Canada, and the possible negative impact on market liquidity.

Understanding Trend Inflation Through the Lens of the Goods and Services Sectors

Staff Working Paper 2020-45 Yunjong Eo, Luis Uzeda, Benjamin Wong
The goods and services sectors have experienced considerably different dynamics over the past three decades. Our goal in this paper is to understand how such contrasting behaviors at the sectoral level affect the aggregate level of trend inflation dynamics.

Monetary Policy Transmission during Financial Crises: An Empirical Analysis

Staff Working Paper 2014-21 Tatjana Dahlhaus
This paper studies the effects of a monetary policy expansion in the United States during times of high financial stress. The analysis is carried out by introducing a smooth transition factor model where the transition between states (“normal” and high financial stress) depends on a financial conditions index.

Intertemporal Substitution in Macroeconomics: Evidence from a Two-Dimensional Labour Supply Model with Money

Staff Working Paper 2005-30 Ali Dib, Louis Phaneuf
The hypothesis of intertemporal substitution in labour supply has a history of empirical failure when confronted with aggregate time-series data.

Debt Overhang and Deleveraging in the US Household Sector: Gauging the Impact on Consumption

Staff Working Paper 2015-47 Bruno Albuquerque, Georgi Krustev
Using a novel dataset for the US states, this paper examines whether household debt and the protracted debt deleveraging help explain the dismal performance of US consumption since 2007, in the aftermath of the housing bubble.

Human Capital Risk and the Firmsize Wage Premium

Staff Working Paper 2008-33 Danny Leung, Alexander Ueberfeldt
Why do employed persons in large firms earn more than employed persons in small firms, even after controlling for observable characteristics? Complementary to previous results, this paper proposes a mechanism that gives an answer to this question.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Labour markets, Productivity JEL Code(s): J, J2, J24, J3, J31

Price Level versus Inflation Targeting under Model Uncertainty

Staff Working Paper 2008-15 Gino Cateau
The purpose of this paper is to make a quantitative contribution to the inflation versus price level targeting debate. It considers a policy-maker that can set policy either through an inflation targeting rule or a price level targeting rule to minimize a quadratic loss function using the actual projection model of the Bank of Canada (ToTEM).
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Monetary policy and uncertainty JEL Code(s): D, D8, D81, E, E5, E58

What Matters in Determining Capital Surcharges for Systemically Important Financial Institutions?

Staff Discussion Paper 2011-9 Céline Gauthier, Toni Gravelle, Xuezhi Liu, Moez Souissi
One way of internalizing the externalities that each individual bank imposes on the rest of the financial system is to impose capital surcharges on them in line with their systemic importance.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): C, C1, C15, C8, C81, E, E4, E44, G, G0, G01, G2, G21
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