May 21, 2002 Inflation and the Macroeconomy: Changes from the 1980s to the 1990s Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2002 David Longworth Over the last 10 years, the level of inflation has been much lower than in the previous two decades. At the same time, the behaviour of inflation has changed profoundly. By surveying the data and the economic research, the author first examines changes in the variability, growth rates, and behaviour of some of the major macroeconomic variables during the 1980s and 1990s. He then looks at how these changes are linked to a shift in the approach of monetary policy over the period. Lastly, he reviews the economic benefits that these changes have had for Canada. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Credibility, Inflation targets, Inflation: costs and benefits
The Evolution of Unobserved Skill Returns in the U.S.: A New Approach Using Panel Data Staff Working Paper 2017-61 Lance Lochner, Youngmin Park, Youngki Shin Economists disagree about the factors driving the substantial increase in residual wage inequality in the United States over the past few decades. To identify changes in the returns to unobserved skills, we make a novel assumption about the dynamics of skills (especially among older workers) rather than about the stability of skill distributions across cohorts, as is standard. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Labour markets JEL Code(s): C, C2, C23, J, J2, J24, J3, J31
Dynamic Factor Analysis for Measuring Money Staff Working Paper 2003-21 Paul Gilbert, Lise Pichette Technological innovations in the financial industry pose major problems for the measurement of monetary aggregates. The authors describe work on a new measure of money that has a more satisfactory means of identifying and removing the effects of financial innovations. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Monetary aggregates, Monetary and financial indicators JEL Code(s): C, C4, C43, C8, C82, E, E5, E51
June 7, 2018 Financial System Review: Assessment of Vulnerabilities and Risks—June 2018 This issue of the Financial System Review reflects the Bank’s judgment that high household indebtedness and housing market imbalances remain the most important vulnerabilities. While these vulnerabilities remain elevated, policy measures continue to improve the resilience of the financial system. A third vulnerability highlighted in the FSR concerns cyber threats to an interconnected financial system. Content Type(s): Publications, Financial Stability Report
Fiscal and Monetary Stabilization Policy at the Zero Lower Bound: Consequences of Limited Foresight Staff Working Paper 2021-51 Michael Woodford, Yinxi Xie How do outcomes of monetary and fiscal stabilization policies at the zero lower bound change when decision makers have finite planning horizons in the economy? We explore the effects of limited foresight on policy tools and the interaction between monetary and fiscal policy. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Central bank research, Fiscal policy, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E6, E63, E7
June 11, 2009 The Complexities of Financial Risk Management and Systemic Risks Bank of Canada Review - Summer 2009 Frank Milne Risk-management systems in financial institutions have come under increasing scrutiny in light of the current financial crisis, resulting in calls for improvements and an increased role for regulators. Yet such objectives miss the intricacy at the heart of the risk-management process. This article outlines the complexity inherent in any modern risk-management system, which arises because there are shortcuts in the theoretical models that risk managers need to be aware of, as well as the difficulties in sensible calibration of model parameters. The author suggests that prudential regulation of such systems should focus on failures within the financial firm and in the market interactions between firms and reviews possible strategies that can improve the performance of risk management and microprudential regulatory practice. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies
The Future Prospects for National Financial Markets and Trading Centres Staff Working Paper 2001-10 Charles Gaa, Stephen Lumpkin, Robert Ogrodnick, Peter Thurlow This paper investigates the effects of the continuation of globalization and technological developments on the future of national-level financial markets and trading centres, particularly in smaller countries such as Canada. We foresee the development of a single global market in the most-liquid assets based on equity-market linkages. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial markets JEL Code(s): G, G1, G10
What’s Up with Unit Non-Response in the Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey? The Effect of Staff Tenure Staff Discussion Paper 2017-11 Sarah Miller, David Amirault, Laurent Martin Since 1997, the Bank of Canada’s regional offices have been conducting the Business Outlook Survey (BOS), a quarterly survey of business conditions. Survey responses are gathered through face-to-face, confidential consultations with a sample of private sector firms representative of the various sectors, firm sizes and regions across Canada. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Firm dynamics, Regional economic developments JEL Code(s): C, C2, C21, C8, C81, D, D2, D22
Price Level Targeting in a Small Open Economy with Financial Frictions: Welfare Analysis Staff Working Paper 2008-40 Ali Dib, Caterina Mendicino, Yahong Zhang How important are the benefits of low price-level uncertainty? This paper explores the desirability of price-level path targeting in an estimated DSGE model fit to Canadian data. The policy implications are based on social welfare evaluations. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial stability, Inflation and prices, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E32, E5, E52
August 24, 2004 Bank of Canada Review - Summer 2004 Cover page Promissory Note, 1712 The note measures 28 cm x 16 cm and forms part of the National Currency Collection, Bank of Canada. Photography by Gord Carter, Ottawa Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review