May 21, 2002 Inflation and the Macroeconomy: Changes from the 1980s to the 1990s Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2002 David Longworth Over the last 10 years, the level of inflation has been much lower than in the previous two decades. At the same time, the behaviour of inflation has changed profoundly. By surveying the data and the economic research, the author first examines changes in the variability, growth rates, and behaviour of some of the major macroeconomic variables during the 1980s and 1990s. He then looks at how these changes are linked to a shift in the approach of monetary policy over the period. Lastly, he reviews the economic benefits that these changes have had for Canada. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Credibility, Inflation targets, Inflation: costs and benefits
Behavioral Learning Equilibria in New Keynesian Models Staff Working Paper 2022-42 Cars Hommes, Kostas Mavromatis, Tolga Özden, Mei Zhu We introduce behavioral learning equilibria (BLE) into DSGE models with boundedly rational agents using simple but optimal first order autoregressive forecasting rules. The Smets-Wouters DSGE model with BLE is estimated and fits well with inflation survey expectations. As a policy application, we show that learning requires a lower degree of interest rate smoothing. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models, Inflation and prices, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, D, D8, D83, D84, E, E3, E6, E62
December 3, 2009 Improving the Resilience of Core Funding Markets Financial System Review - December 2009 Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, Jack Selody, Carolyn A. Wilkins Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles
November 9, 2010 Looking Back, Moving Forward: Canada and Global Financial Reform Remarks Mark Carney International Center for Monetary and Banking Studies Geneva, Switzerland There is an old saying, “Knowledge is gained from experience, and experience is gained from mistakes.” In Canada, we made our mistakes early and often in the 1970s and 1980s. Our fiscal situation deteriorated sharply, inflation surged to double-digit levels, and a few small regional banks collapsed. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
Evaluating the Effects of Forward Guidance and Large-scale Asset Purchases Staff Working Paper 2021-54 Xu Zhang I propose a novel method to identify and estimate the macroeconomic effects of forward guidance and large-scale asset purchases (LSAP) for each FOMC announcement. I find that LSAP is more important than forward guidance in influencing output and inflation. LSAP puts upward pressure on short-term yields, so it should always be used in conjunction with forward guidance. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Central bank research, Econometric and statistical methods, Interest rates JEL Code(s): E, E5, G, G0
The Future Prospects for National Financial Markets and Trading Centres Staff Working Paper 2001-10 Charles Gaa, Stephen Lumpkin, Robert Ogrodnick, Peter Thurlow This paper investigates the effects of the continuation of globalization and technological developments on the future of national-level financial markets and trading centres, particularly in smaller countries such as Canada. We foresee the development of a single global market in the most-liquid assets based on equity-market linkages. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial markets JEL Code(s): G, G1, G10
August 24, 2004 Bank of Canada Review - Summer 2004 Cover page Promissory Note, 1712 The note measures 28 cm x 16 cm and forms part of the National Currency Collection, Bank of Canada. Photography by Gord Carter, Ottawa Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review
June 23, 2005 Financial System Review - June 2005 The financial system makes an important contribution to the welfare of all Canadians. The ability of households and firms to confidently hold and transfer financial assets is one of the fundamental building blocks of the Canadian economy. Content Type(s): Publications, Financial Stability Report
Booms and Busts in House Prices Explained by Constraints in Housing Supply Staff Working Paper 2013-18 Narayan Bulusu, Jefferson Duarte, Carles Vergara-Alert We study the importance of supply constraints in explaining the heterogeneity in house price cycles across geographies in the United States. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Economic models JEL Code(s): R, R3, R31
GDP by Industry in Real Time: Are Revisions Well Behaved? Staff Analytical Note 2018-40 Patrick Rizzetto The monthly data for real gross domestic product (GDP) by industry are used extensively in real time both to ground the Bank of Canada’s monitoring of economic activity and in the Bank’s nowcasting tools, making these data one of the most important high-frequency time series for Canadian nowcasting. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Central bank research, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, C8, C82, E, E0, E01