The Determinants of Consumers’ Inflation Expectations: Evidence from the US and Canada Staff Working Paper 2020-52 Charles Bellemare, Rolande Kpekou Tossou, Kevin Moran We compare the determinants of consumer inflation expectations in the US and Canada by analyzing two current surveys. We find that Canadian consumers rely more on professional forecasts and the history of actual inflation when forming their expectations, while US consumers rely more on their own lagged expectations. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Econometric and statistical methods, Inflation and prices, Inflation targets JEL Code(s): C, C3, C33, D, D8, D83, D84, E, E3, E31
August 24, 2004 Bank of Canada Review - Summer 2004 Cover page Promissory Note, 1712 The note measures 28 cm x 16 cm and forms part of the National Currency Collection, Bank of Canada. Photography by Gord Carter, Ottawa Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review
Evaluating the Effects of Forward Guidance and Large-scale Asset Purchases Staff Working Paper 2021-54 Xu Zhang I propose a novel method to identify and estimate the macroeconomic effects of forward guidance and large-scale asset purchases (LSAP) for each FOMC announcement. I find that LSAP is more important than forward guidance in influencing output and inflation. LSAP puts upward pressure on short-term yields, so it should always be used in conjunction with forward guidance. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Central bank research, Econometric and statistical methods, Interest rates JEL Code(s): E, E5, G, G0
GDP by Industry in Real Time: Are Revisions Well Behaved? Staff Analytical Note 2018-40 Patrick Rizzetto The monthly data for real gross domestic product (GDP) by industry are used extensively in real time both to ground the Bank of Canada’s monitoring of economic activity and in the Bank’s nowcasting tools, making these data one of the most important high-frequency time series for Canadian nowcasting. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Central bank research, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, C8, C82, E, E0, E01
December 9, 1996 The Canadian market for zero-coupon bonds Bank of Canada Review - Winter 1996-1997 Miles Whittingham A conventional bond is a debt instrument consisting of a series of periodic coupon payments plus the repayment of the principal at maturity. As the name suggests, a zero-coupon bond has no coupon payments. It has only a single payment consisting of the repayment of the principal at maturity. The zero-coupon bond is sold at a discount and then redeemed for its face value at maturity. The return to the investor is the difference between the face value of the bond and its discounted purchase price. In this article, the author examines the investment characteristics of zero-coupon bonds. In particular, a type of zero-coupon bond known as a strip bond is discussed. A strip bond is created by stripping coupon payments from conventional bonds. The strip bond market in Canada has grown substantially since the late 1980s and is now an integral part of Canadian fixed-income markets. As well, the opportunity to trade in the strip bond market improves the liquidity and efficiency of Canadian fixed-income markets, thus helping to reduce the overall cost of borrowing to the government. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Financial markets
May 21, 2002 Inflation and the Macroeconomy: Changes from the 1980s to the 1990s Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2002 David Longworth Over the last 10 years, the level of inflation has been much lower than in the previous two decades. At the same time, the behaviour of inflation has changed profoundly. By surveying the data and the economic research, the author first examines changes in the variability, growth rates, and behaviour of some of the major macroeconomic variables during the 1980s and 1990s. He then looks at how these changes are linked to a shift in the approach of monetary policy over the period. Lastly, he reviews the economic benefits that these changes have had for Canada. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Credibility, Inflation targets, Inflation: costs and benefits
Price Level Targeting in a Small Open Economy with Financial Frictions: Welfare Analysis Staff Working Paper 2008-40 Ali Dib, Caterina Mendicino, Yahong Zhang How important are the benefits of low price-level uncertainty? This paper explores the desirability of price-level path targeting in an estimated DSGE model fit to Canadian data. The policy implications are based on social welfare evaluations. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial stability, Inflation and prices, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E32, E5, E52
Booms and Busts in House Prices Explained by Constraints in Housing Supply Staff Working Paper 2013-18 Narayan Bulusu, Jefferson Duarte, Carles Vergara-Alert We study the importance of supply constraints in explaining the heterogeneity in house price cycles across geographies in the United States. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Economic models JEL Code(s): R, R3, R31
Potential output and the neutral rate in Canada: 2022 reassessment Staff Analytical Note 2022-3 Guyllaume Faucher, Christopher Hajzler, Martin Kuncl, Dmitry Matveev, Youngmin Park, Temel Taskin We expect potential output growth to be lower in 2021 than anticipated in the April 2021 assessment. By 2025, growth is expected to reach 2.3%. We assess that the Canadian nominal neutral rate increased slightly to lie in the range of 2.00% to 3.00%. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Economic models, Interest rates, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E2, E3, E4, E5
December 6, 2005 The Bank of Canada: An Illustrated History This volume features interesting images and anecdotes about Canada's central bank and its place in Canadian society from 1935 until the present. Content Type(s): Publications, Books and monographs, Souvenir books