The Case of Serial Disappointment Staff analytical note 2016-10 Justin-Damien Guénette, Nicholas Labelle, Martin Leduc, Lori Rennison Similar to those of other forecasters, the Bank of Canada’s forecasts of global GDP growth have shown persistent negative errors over the past five years. This is in contrast to the pre-crisis period, when errors were consistently positive as global GDP surprised to the upside. All major regions have contributed to the forecast errors observed since 2011, although the United States has been the most persistent source of notable errors. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E2, E27, E6, E66, F, F0, F01 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
November 8, 1994 The demand for currency and the underground economy Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 1994 Thérèse Laflèche The underground economy in Canada has attracted increased attention over the past few years, yet there is no precise way to measure its size. Recent estimates vary between 4 per cent and 15 per cent of gross domestic product. This article provides an overview of measurement issues and recent estimates. It then focusses on the "monetary" approach to estimating the size of the underground economy. This approach is based on the assumption that the demand for bank notes provides a clue as to the size of the underground economy. The article concludes that estimates that use this approach must be viewed with considerable caution. They are based on a number of assumptions that are difficult to verify and that significantly affect the results. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles
Alternative Futures for Government of Canada Debt Management Staff discussion paper 2018-15 Corey Garriott, Sophie Lefebvre, Guillaume Nolin, Francisco Rivadeneyra, Adrian Walton This paper presents four blue-sky ideas for lowering the cost of the Government of Canada’s debt without increasing the debt’s risk profile. We argue that each idea would improve the secondary-market liquidity of government debt, thereby increasing the demand for government bonds and thus lowering their cost at issuance. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12, G2, G24, H, H6, H63 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Funds management, Market functioning, Market structure
July 16, 2014 Monetary Policy Report – July 2014 Canadian real GDP growth is projected to average around 2 ¼ per cent during 2014-2016. Content Type(s): Publications, Monetary Policy Report
March 28, 2017 Canada at 150: It Takes a World to Raise a Nation Remarks Stephen S. Poloz 50th Anniversary of Durham College Oshawa, Ontario Governor Stephen S. Poloz shows how Canada’s economic progress has been driven by its historic preference for openness to immigration, investment and trade. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Subject(s): Financial system, Financial stability, Monetary policy, Economy/Economic growth, Inflation targeting framework
June 25, 2005 Bank of Canada Review - Summer 2005 Cover page African Marriage Money The metal marriage currencies pictured on the cover are part of the National Currency Collection, Bank of Canada. Photography by Gord Carter, Ottawa. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review
August 24, 2004 The Efficiency of Canadian Capital Markets: Some Bank of Canada Research Bank of Canada Review - Summer 2004 Scott Hendry, Michael R. King Capital markets and their related financial instruments make an important contribution to the welfare of Canadians. The Bank of Canada is interested in the efficient functioning of capital markets through each of its responsibilities for monetary policy, the financial system, and funds management. Hendry and King highlight the key findings of Bank research published over the past year that addresses capital market efficiency and summarize lessons that have been learned. The research conducted thus far suggests that Canadian capital markets are efficient for a capital market of Canada's size but are less diverse than the U.S. capital markets, indicating that there is room for improvement in certain areas. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles
Behavioral Learning Equilibria in New Keynesian Models Staff working paper 2022-42 Cars Hommes, Kostas Mavromatis, Tolga Özden, Mei Zhu We introduce behavioral learning equilibria (BLE) into DSGE models with boundedly rational agents using simple but optimal first order autoregressive forecasting rules. The Smets-Wouters DSGE model with BLE is estimated and fits well with inflation survey expectations. As a policy application, we show that learning requires a lower degree of interest rate smoothing. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, D, D8, D83, D84, E, E3, E6, E62 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission
Noisy Monetary Policy Staff working paper 2018-23 Tatjana Dahlhaus, Luca Gambetti We introduce limited information in monetary policy. Agents receive signals from the central bank revealing new information (“news") about the future evolution of the policy rate before changes in the rate actually take place. However, the signal is disturbed by noise. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C1, C18, C3, C32, E, E0, E02, E4, E43, E5, E52 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Monetary policy tools and implementation
December 23, 2003 Financial System Review - December 2003 This section of the Financial System Review examines the recent performance of the Canadian financial system and the factors, both domestic and international, that are influencing it. Content Type(s): Publications, Financial Stability Report