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We identify and quantify fiscal news shocks, compiling events (2001–2023) that altered the expected path of U.S. defense expenditure. For each event, we estimate market-implied shifts in expected spending. A shift-share analysis yields a two-year, metropolitan statistical area–level GDP multiplier of approximately 1 for U.S. military build-ups.

In the 1970s and 1980s we found - in common with many other countries - that high and variable rates of inflation created a lot of economic damage. And it took a long time and a lot of work with various monetary policy frameworks before we got back on track.

Recent work at the Bank of Canada studied the impact of default in Canada’s large-value payments system, and concluded that participants could readily manage their potential losses (McVanel 2005). In an extension of that work, the authors use a much larger set of daily payments data – with three times as many observations – to […]

Text of major 1995 lecture by Bank Governor Gordon Thiessen, plus articles from Bank of Canada Review and other sources

The Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations (CSCE) collects respondents’ views on inflation, the labour market and household finances. The survey for the fourth quarter of 2020 was conducted from November 10 to December 1, 2020. This period coincides with a sharp increase in COVID‑19 cases across Canada and follows announcements about the development of effective vaccines. Since the survey was conducted, some provinces have imposed additional measures to contain the spread of the virus. In addition, the first vaccines have begun to be administered. Like the previous two surveys, the fourth-quarter survey included questions on the impacts of COVID‑19 and the measures to contain its spread. This survey also asked respondents how they used any benefits they received from income-support programs that governments put in place to help them through the pandemic. This quarter, the report provides some details by demographic characteristics.

We analyze micro-level data from the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations through the lens of a heterogeneous-expectations model to study how inflation expectations form over the business cycle. We provide new insights into how households form expectations, documenting that forecasting behaviours, attention and noise in beliefs vary across socio-demographic groups and correlate with views about monetary policy.

In this article, the authors review work done at the Bank of Canada and at other central banks with the relatively new application of network analysis to the study of payments systems.

Stress testing, at its most general level, is an investigation of the performance of an entity under abnormal operating conditions.

The Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations (CSCE) focuses on respondents’ views on inflation, the labour market and household finances. The survey for the second quarter of 2020 was conducted from May 11 to June 1, 2020. Given the ongoing pandemic, in this survey, specific questions were added about the impact on Canadians of COVID‑19 and the measures to contain the spread of the virus.

We provide evidence regarding the dynamic behaviour of net labour flows across U.S. states in response to a positive technology shock. Technology shocks are identified as disturbances that increase relative state productivity in the long run for 226 state pairs, encompassing 80 per cent of labour flows across U.S. states in the 1976 - 2008 period.