Labor Market Shocks and Monetary Policy Staff working paper 2023-52 Serdar Birinci, Fatih Karahan, Yusuf Mercan, Kurt See We develop a heterogeneous-agent New Keynesian model featuring a frictional labor market with on-the-job search to quantitatively study the positive and normative implications of employer-to-employer transitions for inflation. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E1, E12, E2, E24, E5, E52, J, J3, J31, J6, J62, J64 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Real economy and forecasting
Global Demand and Supply Sentiment: Evidence from Earnings Calls Staff working paper 2023-37 Temel Taskin, Franz Ulrich Ruch This paper quantifies global demand, supply and uncertainty shocks and compares two major global recessions: the 2008–09 Great Recession and the COVID-19 pandemic. We use two alternate approaches to decompose economic shocks: text mining techniques on earnings calls transcripts and a structural Bayesian vector autoregression model. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, C3, C32, E, E3, E32, G, G1, G10 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting
Short-Run and Long-Run News: Evidence from Giant Commodity Discoveries Staff working paper 2025-24 Jean-Paul L’Huillier, Kirill Shakhnov, Laure Simon Our understanding of news shocks is, to a large extent, based on studies that focus empirically on short-run news. This paper brings new insights by analyzing the effects of giant commodity discoveries, which typically materialize over the longer run. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E2, E23, F, F3, F4, Q, Q3, Q33 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
The Case of Serial Disappointment Staff analytical note 2016-10 Justin-Damien Guénette, Nicholas Labelle, Martin Leduc, Lori Rennison Similar to those of other forecasters, the Bank of Canada’s forecasts of global GDP growth have shown persistent negative errors over the past five years. This is in contrast to the pre-crisis period, when errors were consistently positive as global GDP surprised to the upside. All major regions have contributed to the forecast errors observed since 2011, although the United States has been the most persistent source of notable errors. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E2, E27, E6, E66, F, F0, F01 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
What Do Survey Data Tell Us About US Businesses? Staff working paper 2019-45 Anmol Bhandari, Serdar Birinci, Ellen McGrattan, Kurt See This paper examines the reliability of survey data on business incomes, valuations, and rates of return, which are key inputs for studies of wealth inequality and entrepreneurial choice. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C8, C83, E, E2, E22, H, H2, H25 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Household and business credit, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
Alternative Futures for Government of Canada Debt Management Staff discussion paper 2018-15 Corey Garriott, Sophie Lefebvre, Guillaume Nolin, Francisco Rivadeneyra, Adrian Walton This paper presents four blue-sky ideas for lowering the cost of the Government of Canada’s debt without increasing the debt’s risk profile. We argue that each idea would improve the secondary-market liquidity of government debt, thereby increasing the demand for government bonds and thus lowering their cost at issuance. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12, G2, G24, H, H6, H63 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Funds management, Market functioning, Market structure
September 14, 2016 (S)low for Long and Financial Stability Remarks Carolyn A. Wilkins Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum City Lecture London, United Kingdom Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Wilkins discusses the financial stability risks associated with slow growth and low interest rates, and explores strategies to mitigate them. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Subject(s): Financial system, Financial markets, Financial stability, Monetary policy, Economic models, Economy/Economic growth
July 16, 2014 Monetary Policy Report – July 2014 Canadian real GDP growth is projected to average around 2 ¼ per cent during 2014-2016. Content Type(s): Publications, Monetary Policy Report
March 28, 2017 Canada at 150: It Takes a World to Raise a Nation Remarks Stephen S. Poloz 50th Anniversary of Durham College Oshawa, Ontario Governor Stephen S. Poloz shows how Canada’s economic progress has been driven by its historic preference for openness to immigration, investment and trade. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Subject(s): Financial system, Financial stability, Monetary policy, Economy/Economic growth, Inflation targeting framework
June 25, 2005 Bank of Canada Review - Summer 2005 Cover page African Marriage Money The metal marriage currencies pictured on the cover are part of the National Currency Collection, Bank of Canada. Photography by Gord Carter, Ottawa. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review