Money in the Bank (of Canada) Technical Report No. 93 David Longworth With the demise of monetary targeting over the past 20 years in many major countries, the question has arisen as to whether central banks should look at money at all when formulating and conducting monetary policy. Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Research Topic(s): Monetary aggregates, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E5, E50, E51, E52
How Far Can Forecasting Models Forecast? Forecast Content Horizons for Some Important Macroeconomic Variables Staff Working Paper 2007-1 John Galbraith, Greg Tkacz For stationary transformations of variables, there exists a maximum horizon beyond which forecasts can provide no more information about the variable than is present in the unconditional mean. Meteorological forecasts, typically excepting only experimental or exploratory situations, are not reported beyond this horizon; by contrast, little generally accepted information about such maximum horizons is available for economic variables. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53
How Do Agents Form Macroeconomic Expectations? Evidence from Inflation Uncertainty Staff Working Paper 2024-5 Tao Wang The uncertainty regarding inflation that is observed in density forecasts of households and professionals helps macroeconomists understand the formation mechanism of inflation expectations. Shocks to inflation take time to be perceived by all agents in the economy, and such rigidity is lower in a high-inflation environment. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Inflation and prices, Monetary policy and uncertainty JEL Code(s): D, D8, D84, E, E3, E31, E7, E71
March 16, 2008 Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2008 Cover Page Canada's First Coinage Photography by Gord Carter, Ottawa. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review
January 11, 2009 Bank of Canada Review - Winter 2008-2009 Cover page Chargex The artefacts on the cover are part of the National Currency Collection of the Bank of Canada. Photography by Gord Carter Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review
Financial Constraints and Investment: Assessing the Impact of a World Bank Loan Program on Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises in Sri Lanka Staff Working Paper 2003-37 Varouj Aivazian, Dipak Mazumdar, Eric Santor The authors examine the investment behaviour of a sample of small, credit-constrained firms in Sri Lanka. Using a unique panel-data set, they analyze and compare the activities of two groups of small firms distinguished by their different access to financing; one group consists of firms with heavily subsidized loans from the World Bank, and the other consists of firms without such subsidies. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Development economics JEL Code(s): G, G0, G00, O, O1, O16
Financial Structure and Economic Growth: A Non-Technical Survey Staff Working Paper 2002-24 Veronika Dolar, Césaire Meh There is a large body of literature that studies the relationship between financial structure (that is, the degree to which the financial system is either market- or intermediary-based) and long-run economic growth. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Development economics, Economic models, Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial services JEL Code(s): F, F3, F36, G, G0, G00, G1, G14, G2, G21, K, K2, K22, O, O1, O16
The Bank of Canada's New Quarterly Projection Model, Part 3. The Dynamic Model: QPM Technical Report No. 75 Donald Coletti, Benjamin Hunt, David Rose, Robert Tetlow The Bank of Canada's new Quarterly Projection Model, QPM, combines the short-term dynamic properties necessary to support regular economic projections with the consistent behavioural structure necessary for policy analysis. Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Research Topic(s): Economic models JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, E, E1, E17
The Carry Trade, Portfolio Diversification, and the Adjustment of the Japanese Yen Staff Discussion Paper 2008-2 Corinne Luu In this paper, the author considers whether fundamentals or other factors can explain the yen's ongoing weakness. In particular, the importance of capital outflows due to the carry trade and longer-term portfolio investment outflows, which may be delaying the adjustment of the yen, are investigated. A simple portfolio model is developed, composed of a speculative […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Exchange rates, International topics, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): F, F2, F21, F3, F31, F32, G, G1, G11
October 3, 2017 Seeking Gazelles in Polar Bear Country Remarks Sylvain Leduc Sherbrooke Chamber of Commerce Sherbrooke, Quebec Deputy Governor Sylvain Leduc discusses the decline in firm creation and productivity in the Canadian economy. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Firm dynamics, International topics, Market structure and pricing, Potential output, Productivity