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The authors present the four common cyclical vulnerabilities that appear in financial systems, providing examples of qualitative and quantitative indicators used to monitor these vulnerabilities across different sectors. They also discuss other inputs to the vulnerability assessment and to the internal process used at the Bank of Canada for identifying, evaluating and communicating vulnerabilities and risks, and highlight some of the key challenges in assessing financial system vulnerabilities and risks.

2012 was a year of tentative recovery for the world economy, but considerable accomplishment for the Bank of Canada as it worked to promote the economic and financial well-being of Canadians. The 2012 Annual Report provides a Message from the Governor, highlights key achievements over the year, describes the Bank’s corporate governance, and presents financial statements in conjunction with Management’s Discussion and Analysis.

Canada plans to adopt a retail payment system to allow Canadians to pay in real time (or near real time) 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. However, the traditional model for setting the overnight interest rate does not operate 24/7.

Although the global financial system continues to recover gradually from the unprecedented dislocations experienced in recent years, significant downside risks remain. Market concerns over acute fiscal strains in some euro-area countries have intensified sharply in recent weeks.

FSR Highlights - December 2010

The Canadian economy regained strong momentum in 1999 as the U.S. economy remained vigorous, the global economy recovered, and commodity prices moved upwards.

Cover page

Promissory Notes

The notes featured on the cover measure approximately 21 cm x 8 cm and form part of the National Currency Collection, Bank of Canada.

Photography by Gord Carter, Ottawa

This monthly newsletter features the latest research publications by Bank of Canada economists including external publications and working papers published on the Bank of Canada’s website.

A year of financial market strains and economic disruption in 2009 gave way to initial signs of progress in 2010, the year the Bank of Canada celebrates its 75th anniversary. The lessons of the past year vividly illustrate what the Bank has demonstrated repeatedly through seven and a half decades: the value of well-researched policy frameworks and decisive action.

The Financial System Review concludes that the overall level of risk to Canada’s financial system is largely unchanged from six months ago. While household vulnerabilities have moved higher, the ongoing economic recovery in Canada means that the overall risk remains the same. The Bank highlights three vulnerabilities in the financial system: the elevated level of household indebtedness, imbalances in some regional housing markets and the fragility of liquidity in fixed-income markets.

This paper analyzes the optimal quantity of central bank reserves in an economy where reserves and other financial assets provide liquidity benefits. Using a static model, I derive a constrained Friedman rule that characterizes the socially optimal level of reserves, demonstrating that this quantity is neither necessarily large nor small but depends on the marginal benefits of reserves relative to alternative safe assets.