Has the Inflation Process Changed? Selective Review of Recent Research on Inflation Dynamics Staff Discussion Paper 2020-11 Oleksiy Kryvtsov, James (Jim) C. MacGee From 2011 to 2019, inflation in Canada and advanced economies usually registered below inflation targets, spurring the debate on whether the inflation process has changed. This paper highlights emerging questions that will influence the conduct of monetary policy in Canada in the near term. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Inflation and prices, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E5, E52
The Ex-Ante Versus Ex-Post Effect of Public Guarantees Staff Working Paper 2012-22 H. Evren Damar, Reint Gropp, Adi Mordel In October 2006, Dominion Bond Rating Service (DBRS) introduced new ratings for banks that account for the potential of government support. The rating changes are not a reflection of any changes in the respective banks’ credit fundamentals. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): G, G2, G21, G28, G3, G32
Who Pays? CCP Resource Provision in the Post-Pittsburgh World Staff Discussion Paper 2017-17 Jorge Cruz Lopez, Mark Manning At the Pittsburgh Summit in 2009, G20 countries announced their commitment to clear all standardized over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives through central counterparties (CCPs). Since then, CCPs have become increasingly important and there has been an extensive program of regulatory enhancements to both them and OTC derivatives markets. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Financial markets, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): G, G0, G01, G2, G28
Analyzing Fiscal Sustainability Staff Working Paper 2013-27 Huixin Bi, Eric M. Leeper The authors study the implications of fiscal policy behaviour for sovereign risk in a framework that determines a country’s fiscal limit, the point at which, for economic or political reasons, taxes and spending can no longer adjust to stabilize debt. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Fiscal policy JEL Code(s): E, E6, E62, E65, H, H6, H63
The BoC-BoE Sovereign Default Database: What’s New in 2019? Staff Working Paper 2019-39 David Beers, Patrisha de Leon-Manlagnit Until recently, few efforts have been made to systematically measure and aggregate the nominal value of the different types of sovereign government debt in default. To help fill this gap, the Bank of Canada (BoC) developed a comprehensive database of sovereign defaults that is posted on its website and updated in partnership with the Bank of England (BoE). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Debt management, Development economics, Financial stability, International financial markets JEL Code(s): F, F3, F34, G, G1, G10, G14, G15
Revisiting National Border Effects in Foreign Trade in Goods of Canadian Provinces Staff Working Paper 2015-28 Farrukh Suvankulov A significant body of empirical studies demonstrates sizable national border effects in foreign trade of Canadian provinces throughout the 1980s and 1990s. This paper revisits and expands the scope of the border effects analysis by estimating the border effect in trade with U.S. states as well as countries in the European Union (EU) and the G 20 using more recent data from 2001–10. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): International topics JEL Code(s): F, F1, F14, F15
Privacy as a Public Good: A Case for Electronic Cash Staff Working Paper 2019-24 Rodney J. Garratt, Maarten van Oordt Cash gives users a high level of privacy when making payments, but the use of cash to make payments is declining. People increasingly use debit cards, credit cards or other methods to pay. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Bank notes, Central bank research, Digital currencies and fintech, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): E, E4, E42, G, G2, G28
The Transmission of Shocks to the Chinese Economy in a Global Context: A Model-Based Approach Staff Working Paper 2010-17 Jeannine Bailliu, Patrick Blagrave To better understand the dynamics of the Chinese economy and its interaction with the global economy, the authors incorporate China into an existing model for the G-3 economies (i.e., the United States, the euro area, and Japan), paying particular attention to modelling the exchange rate and monetary policy in China. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models, Exchange rate regimes, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E5, E52, F, F4, F41
Uncertain Fiscal Consolidations Staff Working Paper 2013-26 Huixin Bi, Eric M. Leeper, Campbell Leith The paper explores the macroeconomic consequences of fiscal consolidations whose timing and composition - either tax- or spending-based - are uncertain. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Fiscal policy, Monetary policy and uncertainty JEL Code(s): E, E6, E62, E63, H, H3, H30, H6, H60
Dating Systemic Financial Stress Episodes in the EU Countries Staff Working Paper 2016-11 Benjamin Klaus, Tuomas Peltonen, Thibaut Duprey This paper introduces a new methodology to date systemic financial stress events in a transparent, objective and reproducible way. The financial cycle is captured by a monthly country-specific financial stress index. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Central bank research, Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models, Financial markets, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Monetary and financial indicators JEL Code(s): C, C5, C54, G, G0, G01, G1, G15