Testing for the Diffusion Matrix in a Continuous-Time Markov Process Model with Applications to the Term Structure of Interest Rates Staff Working Paper 2015-17 Fuchun Li The author proposes a test for the parametric specification of each component in the diffusion matrix of a d-dimensional diffusion process. Overall, d (d-1)/2 test statistics are constructed for the off-diagonal components, while d test statistics are constructed for the main diagonal components. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Econometric and statistical methods, Interest rates JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, C14, E, E1, E17, E4, E43, G, G1, G12, G2, G20
Rollover Risk and the Maturity Transformation Function of Banks Staff Working Paper 2014-8 Teodora Paligorova, João Santos This paper shows that banks that rely heavily on short-term funding engage less in maturity transformation in an attempt to decrease their exposure to rollover risk. These banks shorten both the maturity of their portfolio of loans as well as the maturity of newly issued loans. We find that the loan yield curve becomes steeper with banks’ increasing use of short-term funding. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial stability JEL Code(s): G, G2, G21
The Anatomy of Sentiment-Driven Fluctuations Staff Working Paper 2021-33 Sushant Acharya, Jess Benhabib, Zhen Huo We show that changes in sentiment that aren’t related to fundamentals can drive persistent macroeconomic fluctuations even when all economic agents are rational. Changes in sentiment can also affect how fundamental shocks affect macroeconomic outcomes. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models JEL Code(s): E, E2, E20, E3, E32, F, F4, F44
Predictive Density Combination Using a Tree-Based Synthesis Function Staff Working Paper 2023-61 Tony Chernis, Niko Hauzenberger, Florian Huber, Gary Koop, James Mitchell This paper studies non-parametric combinations of density forecasts. We introduce a regression tree-based approach that allows combination weights to vary on the features of the densities, time-trends or economic indicators. In two empirical applications, we show the benefits of this approach in terms of improved forecast accuracy and interpretability. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, C3, C32, C5, C53
Estimating the Effect of Exchange Rate Changes on Total Exports Staff Working Paper 2019-17 Thierry Mayer, Walter Steingress This paper shows that real effective exchange rate (REER) regressions, the standard approach for estimating the response of aggregate exports to exchange rate changes, imply biased estimates of the underlying elasticities. We provide a new aggregate regression specification that is consistent with bilateral trade flows micro-founded by the gravity equation. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Exchange rates, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F1, F11, F12, F3, F31, F32
Ten Isn’t Large! Group Size and Coordination in a Large-Scale Experiment Staff Working Paper 2020-30 Jasmina Arifovic, Cars Hommes, Anita Kopányi-Peuker, Isabelle Salle Economic activities typically involve coordination among a large number of agents. These agents have to anticipate what other agents think before making their own decisions. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial markets, Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C9, C92, D, D8, D83, D9, D90, G, G2, G20
Tractable Term Structure Models Staff Working Paper 2015-46 Bruno Feunou, Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, Anh Le, Christian Lundblad We introduce a new framework that facilitates term structure modeling with both positive interest rates and flexible time-series dynamics but that is also tractable, meaning amenable to quick and robust estimation. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Interest rates, International financial markets, International topics, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12
Estimation of the Default Risk of Publicly Traded Canadian Companies Staff Working Paper 2006-28 Georges Dionne, Sadok Laajimi, Sofiane Mejri, Madalina Petrescu Two models of default risk are prominent in the financial literature: Merton's structural model and Altman's non-structural model. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Debt management, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): G, G2, G21, G24, G28, G3, G33
Assessing and Valuing the Non-Linear Structure of Hedge Fund Returns Staff Working Paper 2006-31 Antonio Diez de los Rios, René Garcia Several studies have put forward the non-linear structure and option-like features of returns associated with hedge fund strategies. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial institutions JEL Code(s): C, C1, C5, G, G1
Subordinated Debt and Market Discipline in Canada Staff Working Paper 2005-40 Greg Caldwell The author documents the use by Canadian banks of subordinated debt (SD) as a capital instrument. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial institutions JEL Code(s): G, G2, G21, G28