What Does the Risk-Appetite Index Measure? Staff Working Paper 2003-23 Miroslav Misina Explanations of changes in asset prices as being due to exogenous changes in risk appetite, although arguably controversial, have been popular in the financial community and have also received some attention in attempts to account for recent financial crises. Operational versions of these explanations are based on the assumption that changes in asset prices can be decomposed into a part that can be attributed to changes in riskiness and a part attributable to changes in risk aversion, and that some quantitative measure can capture these effects in isolation. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Financial markets JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12
Evaluating the Effects of Forward Guidance and Large-scale Asset Purchases Staff Working Paper 2021-54 Xu Zhang I propose a novel method to identify and estimate the macroeconomic effects of forward guidance and large-scale asset purchases (LSAP) for each FOMC announcement. I find that LSAP is more important than forward guidance in influencing output and inflation. LSAP puts upward pressure on short-term yields, so it should always be used in conjunction with forward guidance. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Central bank research, Econometric and statistical methods, Interest rates JEL Code(s): E, E5, G, G0
Relationships in the Interbank Market Staff Working Paper 2016-33 Jonathan Chiu, Cyril Monnet In the interbank market, banks will sometimes trade below the central bank's deposit rate. We explain this anomaly using a theory based on market frictions and relationship lending. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Interest rates, Monetary policy implementation, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E4, E5
Decomposing Large Banks’ Systemic Trading Losses Staff Working Paper 2024-6 Radoslav Raykov Do banks realize simultaneous trading losses because they invest in the same assets, or because different assets are subject to the same macro shocks? This paper decomposes the comovements of bank trading losses into two orthogonal channels: portfolio overlap and common shocks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial stability JEL Code(s): G, G1, G10, G11, G2, G20
Consumer Bankruptcy and Information Staff Working Paper 2012-18 Jason Allen, H. Evren Damar, David Martinez-Miera We analyze the relationship between the intensity of banks’ use of soft-information and household bankruptcy patterns. Using a unique data set on the universe of Canadian household bankruptcies, we document that bankruptcy rates are higher in markets where the collection of soft, or qualitative locally gathered information, is the weakest. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial services JEL Code(s): D, D4, G, G2
Motivations for Capital Controls and Their Effectiveness Staff Working Paper 2015-5 Radhika Pandey, Gurnain Pasricha, Ila Patnaik, Ajay Shah We assess the motivations for changing capital controls and their effectiveness in India, a country with extensive and long-standing controls. We focus on the controls on foreign borrowing that can, in principle, be motivated by macroprudential concerns. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Exchange rate regimes, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F3, F32, G, G1, G15, G18
Expenditure-Switching Effect and the Choice of Exchange Rate Regime Staff Working Paper 2007-54 Wei Dong The author investigates the quantitative importance of the expenditure-switching effect by developing and estimating a structural sticky-price model nesting both producer currency pricing (PCP) and local currency pricing (LCP) settings. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Exchange rate regimes, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F3, F4
July 14, 2021 Monetary Policy Report – July 2021 As the economy reopens after the third wave of COVID-19, growth should rebound strongly. The Bank is forecasting growth of about 6 percent this year, slowing to about 4 ½ percent in 2022 and 3 ¼ percent in 2023. Content Type(s): Publications, Monetary Policy Report
Dating Systemic Financial Stress Episodes in the EU Countries Staff Working Paper 2016-11 Benjamin Klaus, Tuomas Peltonen, Thibaut Duprey This paper introduces a new methodology to date systemic financial stress events in a transparent, objective and reproducible way. The financial cycle is captured by a monthly country-specific financial stress index. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Central bank research, Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models, Financial markets, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Monetary and financial indicators JEL Code(s): C, C5, C54, G, G0, G01, G1, G15
Futures Markets, Oil Prices and the Intertemporal Approach to the Current Account Staff Working Paper 2008-48 Elif Arbatli The intertemporal approach to the current account suggests modeling movements in the current account in a forward-looking, dynamic framework. In this framework, the current account reflects consumption smoothing of agents that lend and borrow from the rest of the world in the face of transitory shocks to income. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Balance of payments and components JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, F, F2, F21, F3, F32, G, G1, G13