July 18, 2012 Monetary Policy Report – July 2012 The Bank projects that the economy will grow by 2.1 per cent in 2012, 2.3 per cent in 2013 and 2.5 per cent in 2014. The economy is expected to reach full capacity in the second half of 2013. Content Type(s): Publications, Monetary Policy Report
Steps in Applying Extreme Value Theory to Finance: A Review Staff Working Paper 2000-20 Younes Bensalah Extreme value theory (EVT) has been applied in fields such as hydrology and insurance. It is a tool used to consider probabilities associated with extreme and thus rare events. EVT is useful in modelling the impact of crashes or situations of extreme stress on investor portfolios. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial markets JEL Code(s): C, C0, C4, C5, G, G1
April 18, 2012 Monetary Policy Report – April 2012 The Bank projects the Canadian economy will grow by 2.4 per cent in 2012 and 2013 before moderating to 2.2 per cent in 2014. The economy is now expected to return to full capacity in the first half of 2013. Content Type(s): Publications, Monetary Policy Report
August 16, 2012 Global Risk Premiums and the Transmission of Monetary Policy Bank of Canada Review - Summer 2012 Gregory Bauer, Antonio Diez de los Rios An important channel in the transmission of monetary policy is the relationship between the short-term policy rate and long-term interest rates. Using a new term-structure model, the authors show that the variation in long-term interest rates over time consists of two components: one representing investor expectations of future policy rates, and another reflecting a term-structure risk premium that compensates investors for holding a risky asset. The time variation in the term-structure risk premium is countercyclical and largely determined by global macroeconomic conditions. As a result, long-term rates are pushed up during recessions and down during times of expansion. This is an important phenomenon that central banks need to take into account when using short-term rates as a policy tool. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Financial markets, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, F, F3, F31, G, G1, G12, G15
December 1, 2000 Debt Strategy Consultations 2001—02 Overview The purpose of the consultations is to obtain market views on issues relating to the design and operation of government debt programs over 2001—02, with a focus on the Treasury bill program. The following provides a brief description of the issues to be covered: Context The objectives of debt strategy are to provide stable, […]
A Stochastic Simulation Framework for the Government of Canada's Debt Strategy Staff Working Paper 2003-10 David Bolder Debt strategy is defined as the manner in which a government finances an excess of government expenditures over revenues and any maturing debt issued in previous periods. The author gives a thorough qualitative description of the complexities of debt strategy analysis and then demonstrates that it is, in fact, a problem in stochastic optimal control. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Debt management, Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models JEL Code(s): C, C0, C1, C15, C5, C52, H, H6, H63
The Transmission of Shocks to the Chinese Economy in a Global Context: A Model-Based Approach Staff Working Paper 2010-17 Jeannine Bailliu, Patrick Blagrave To better understand the dynamics of the Chinese economy and its interaction with the global economy, the authors incorporate China into an existing model for the G-3 economies (i.e., the United States, the euro area, and Japan), paying particular attention to modelling the exchange rate and monetary policy in China. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models, Exchange rate regimes, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E5, E52, F, F4, F41
November 13, 2014 Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2014 In this issue, Bank staff discuss recent developments in experimental macroeconomics, research results on price-level and unemployment thresholds in forward guidance, and the spillover effects of quantitative easing in advance economies. Articles also explore the competitiveness strategies of Canadian firms as well as their use of financial derivatives. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review
November 9, 2023 Financial stability in a world of higher interest rates Remarks Carolyn Rogers Advocis Vancouver Vancouver, British Columbia Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers talks about financial stability in an era of higher interest rates. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Credit risk management, Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial stability, Firm dynamics, Interest rates, Monetary and financial indicators, Recent economic and financial developments
Merchant Acceptance of Cash and Credit Cards at the Point of Sale Staff Analytical Note 2018-1 Ben Fung, Kim Huynh, Kerry Nield, Angelika Welte Recent data show that the use of credit cards in Canada has been increasing, while the use of cash has been declining. At the same time, only two-thirds of small or medium-sized businesses accept credit cards. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Bank notes, Digital currencies and fintech, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial services JEL Code(s): C, C2, D, D1, E, E4, E41