Macroeconomic Uncertainty Through the Lens of Professional Forecasters Staff working paper 2016-5 Soojin Jo, Rodrigo Sekkel We analyze the evolution of macroeconomic uncertainty in the United States, based on the forecast errors of consensus survey forecasts of different economic indicators. Comprehensive information contained in the survey forecasts enables us to capture a real-time subjective measure of uncertainty in a simple framework. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C3, C38, E, E1, E17, E3, E32 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
How Fast Can China Grow? The Middle Kingdom’s Prospects to 2030 Staff working paper 2016-15 Jeannine Bailliu, Mark Kruger, Argyn Toktamyssov, Wheaton Welbourn Given its size and importance for global commodity markets, the question of how fast the Chinese economy can grow over the medium term is an important one. This paper addresses this question by examining the evolution of the supply side of the Chinese economy over history and projecting how it will evolve over the next 15 years. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E2, E22, E23, E3, E32, O, O4 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply, Digitalization and productivity
Credit Conditions, Inflation, and Unemployment Staff working paper 2025-26 Chao Gu, Janet Hua Jiang, Liang Wang We identify two channels that affect the relationship between inflation and unemployment. First, inflation lowers wages because unemployed suffer more from inflation than employed, generating a positive relationship. Second, inflation increases firms’ financing costs, generating a negative relationship. Improvements in firm financing conditions can induce the relationship to switch signs. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, E3, E31, E4, E44, E5, E51 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Household and business credit, Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting
Optimal Monetary Policy According to HANK Staff working paper 2021-55 Sushant Acharya, Edouard Challe, Keshav Dogra We study optimal monetary policy in an analytically tractable Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian model. In the model, the central bank has an incentive to reduce consumption inequality in addition to keeping economic activity at its efficient level and inflation stable. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, E3, E30, E5, E52, E6, E62, E63 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Monetary policy tools and implementation
Labor Demand Response to Labor Supply Incentives: Lessons from the German Mini-Job Reform Staff working paper 2021-15 Gabriela Galassi How do firms change their employment decisions when tax benefits for low-earning workers are expanded? Some firms increase employment overall, whereas others replace high-earning workers with low-earning workers, according to German linked employer-employee data. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, E6, E64, H, H2, H20, H24, H3, H32, I, I3, I38, J, J2, J23, J3, J38 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
2021 Methods-of-Payment Survey Report Staff discussion paper 2022-23 Christopher Henry, Matthew Shimoda, Julia Zhu We present results from the 2021 Methods-of-Payment Survey, including updated payment shares. We highlight long-term trends and provide additional context for results with respect to the COVID-19 pandemic. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): D, D8, D83, E, E4, E41 Research Theme(s): Money and payments, Cash and bank notes, Retail payments
Maturity Composition and the Demand for Government Debt Staff working paper 2020-29 Jason Allen, Jakub Kastl, Milena Wittwer The main objectives of debt management are to raise stable and low-cost funding to meet the government’s financial needs and to maintain a well-functioning market for government securities. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C1, C14, D, D4, D44, E, E5, E58, G, G1, G12 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Funds management, Market functioning, Financial system, Financial institutions and intermediation, Models and tools, Economic models
Let’s Get Physical: Impacts of Climate Change Physical Risks on Provincial Employment Staff working paper 2024-32 Thibaut Duprey, Soojin Jo, Geneviève Vallée We analyze 40 years’ worth of natural disasters using a local projection framework to assess their impact on provincial labour markets in Canada. We find that disasters decrease hours worked within a week and lower wage growth in the medium run. Our study highlights that disasters affect vulnerable workers through the income channel. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C3, C33, E, E2, E24, J, J3, Q, Q5, Q54 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Climate change, Demographics and labour supply
Estimating the Effect of Exchange Rate Changes on Total Exports Staff working paper 2019-17 Thierry Mayer, Walter Steingress This paper shows that real effective exchange rate (REER) regressions, the standard approach for estimating the response of aggregate exports to exchange rate changes, imply biased estimates of the underlying elasticities. We provide a new aggregate regression specification that is consistent with bilateral trade flows micro-founded by the gravity equation. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): F, F1, F11, F12, F3, F31, F32 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
The Anatomy of Sentiment-Driven Fluctuations Staff working paper 2021-33 Sushant Acharya, Jess Benhabib, Zhen Huo We show that changes in sentiment that aren’t related to fundamentals can drive persistent macroeconomic fluctuations even when all economic agents are rational. Changes in sentiment can also affect how fundamental shocks affect macroeconomic outcomes. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E2, E20, E3, E32, F, F4, F44 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Real economy and forecasting