Probing Potential Output: Monetary Policy, Credibility, and Optimal Learning under Uncertainty Staff Working Paper 2000-10 James Yetman The effective conduct of monetary policy is complicated by uncertainty about the level of potential output, and thus about the size of the monetary policy response that would be sufficient to achieve the targeted inflation rate. One possible response to such uncertainty is for the monetary authority to "probe," interpreted here as actively using its policy response to learn about the level of potential output. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Credibility, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Potential output JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58
January 26, 2022 Monetary Policy Report – January 2022 The Canadian economy entered 2022 in a strong position. The Bank is forecasting growth of 4% in 2022 and about 3½ % in 2023. Content Type(s): Publications, Monetary Policy Report
October 3, 2023 Understanding the unusual: How firms set prices during periods of high inflation Remarks Nicolas Vincent Chamber of Commerce of Metropolitan Montreal Montréal, Quebec Deputy Governor Nicolas Vincent discusses how firms set their prices and how pricing behaviour changed in our recent environment of high inflation. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Firm dynamics, Inflation and prices, Price stability
Systemic Risk and Portfolio Diversification: Evidence from the Futures Market Staff Working Paper 2021-50 Radoslav Raykov This paper explores how the Canadian futures market contributed to banks’ systemic risk during the 2008 financial crisis. It finds that core banks as a whole traded against the periphery, in this way increasing their risk of simultaneous losses. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial markets JEL Code(s): G, G1, G10, G2, G20
The Impact of U.S. Monetary Policy Normalization on Capital Flows to Emerging-Market Economies Staff Working Paper 2014-53 Tatjana Dahlhaus, Garima Vasishtha The Federal Reserve’s path for withdrawal of monetary stimulus and eventually increasing interest rates could have substantial repercussions for capital flows to emerging-market economies (EMEs). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): International topics, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, E, E5, E52, F, F3, F33, F4, F42
The Fisher BCPI: The Bank of Canada’s New Commodity Price Index Staff Discussion Paper 2010-6 Ilan Kolet, Ryan Macdonald The prices of commodities produced in Canada have important implications for the performance of the Canadian economy and the conduct of monetary policy. The authors explain an important change to the methodology used to construct the Bank of Canada commodity price index (BCPI). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): C, C1, E, E3
Canadian Repo Market Ecology Staff Discussion Paper 2016-8 Corey Garriott, Kyle Gray This is the first of the Financial Markets Department’s descriptions of Canadian financial industrial organization. The document discusses the organization of the repurchase-agreement (repo) market in Canada. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial system regulation and policies, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): G, G1, G18, G2, G21, G23
September 25, 2007 Turbulence in Credit Markets: Causes, Effects, and Lessons To Be Learned Remarks David Dodge Vancouver Board of Trade Vancouver, British Columbia The turbulence in financial markets did not come about against a backdrop of economic weakness. Indeed, over the past number of years, the global economy has shown remarkable strength. We were also seeing encouraging signs of growth being spread more evenly. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
Multilateral Adjustment and Exchange Rate Dynamics: The Case of Three Commodity Currencies Staff Working Paper 2007-41 Jeannine Bailliu, Ali Dib, Takashi Kano, Lawrence L. Schembri In this paper, we empirically investigate whether multilateral adjustment to large U.S. external imbalances can help explain movements in the bilateral exchange rates of three commodity currencies – the Australian, Canadian and New Zealand (ACNZ) dollars. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Exchange rates JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, C2, C22, F, F3, F31, F32
Inflation and Relative Price Dispersion in Canada: An Empirical Assessment Staff Working Paper 2005-28 André Binette, Sylvain Martel The authors investigate empirically the relationship between different aspects of inflation and relative price dispersion in Canada using a Markov regime-switching Phillips curve. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, E, E3, E31