May 17, 1996 The Transmission of Monetary Policy Gordon Thiessen, Bruce Montador, Kevin Clinton, Kevin Fettig, Donna Howard, Charles Freedman, Pierre Duguay, Stephen S. Poloz, Tim Noël Text of major 1995 lecture by Bank Governor Gordon Thiessen, plus articles from Bank of Canada Review and other sources Content Type(s): Publications, Books and monographs JEL Code(s): E, E5
Combining Large Numbers of Density Predictions with Bayesian Predictive Synthesis Staff working paper 2023-45 Tony Chernis I show how to combine large numbers of forecasts using several approaches within the framework of a Bayesian predictive synthesis. I find techniques that choose and combine a handful of forecasts, known as global-local shrinkage priors, perform best. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, C5, C52, C53, E, E3, E37 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
Untapped Potential: Mobile Device Ownership and Mobile Payments in Canada Staff working paper 2024-25 Marie-Hélène Felt, Angelika Welte, Katrina Talavera We present a two-stage model of mobile phone and mobile payment usage that controls for selectivity. This reveals unobserved factors that work against having a mobile phone and toward mobile paying. Therefore, people who are unable to acquire or choose not to own a mobile device might have unmet payment needs. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C3, C39, D, D1, D12, E, E4, E42 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech, Retail payments
April 15, 2015 Monetary Policy Report – April 2015 Real GDP in Canada is expected to grow by 1.9 per cent in 2015 and 2.5 per cent in 2016 and by 2.0 per cent in 2017. Content Type(s): Publications, Monetary Policy Report
Central Bank Crisis Interventions: A Review of the Recent Literature on Potential Costs Staff discussion paper 2023-30 Patrick Aldridge, David Cimon, Rishi Vala Central banks’ actions to stabilize financial markets and implement monetary policy during crises may come with costs and side effects. We provide a literature review of these costs and discuss measures that may mitigate the negative impacts of crisis actions. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): E, E5, E58, G, G1, G10, G2, G20 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Monetary policy, Monetary policy tools and implementation
Portfolio Rebalancing Channel and the Effects of Large-Scale Stock and Bond Purchases Staff working paper 2025-38 Sami Alpanda, Serdar Kabaca We quantify the effects of large-scale stock purchases by a central bank and compare these to bond purchases. We find that the central bank’s equity purchases would lower the risk and term premiums on stocks and long-term bonds, respectively, and thereby stimulate economic activity. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E4, E44, E5, E52 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Real economy and forecasting
April 24, 2019 Monetary Policy Report – April 2019 The Bank’s new forecast calls for real economic growth of 1.2 per cent this year, 2.1 per cent next year and 2.0 per cent in 2021. Content Type(s): Publications, Monetary Policy Report
A Three‐Frequency Dynamic Factor Model for Nowcasting Canadian Provincial GDP Growth Staff discussion paper 2017-8 Tony Chernis, Gabriella Velasco, Calista Cheung This paper estimates a three‐frequency dynamic factor model for nowcasting Canadian provincial gross domestic product (GDP). Canadian provincial GDP is released by Statistics Canada on an annual basis only, with a significant lag (11 months). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, E, E3, E32, E37, R, R1, R11 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Econometric, statistical and computational methods, Economic models, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
What to Expect When China Liberalizes Its Capital Account Staff discussion paper 2016-10 Mark Kruger, Gurnain Pasricha When China joined the World Trade Organization in December 2001, it marked a watershed for the world economy. Ten years from now, the opening of China’s capital account and the financial integration that will unfold will be viewed as a milestone of similar importance. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): F, F3, F31, F32, G, G1, G18 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, International markets and currencies, Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
December 8, 2011 Strengthening Bank Management of Liquidity Risk: The Basel III Liquidity Standards Financial System Review - December 2011 Natasha Khan, Tamara Gomes Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles