Deglobalization and Trade Fragmentation: Implications for the Inflation-Output Trade-Off Staff analytical paper 2026-24 Matteo Cacciatore, Daniela Hauser, Yuko Imura How do deglobalization and rising trade costs affect monetary policy? A two-country, multi-sector model of Canada and the United States shows that bilateral trade-cost shocks generate a manageable inflation–output trade-off under the existing framework — but larger or more persistent shocks would make look-through policies costlier and riskier. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical paper JEL Code(s): D, D5, D57, E, E5, E52, E58, F, F1, F13, F4, F41, F6, F62 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Monetary policy tools and implementation, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
Terms-of-Trade and House Price Fluctuations: A Cross-Country Study Staff working paper 2017-1 Paul Corrigan Terms-of-trade shocks are known to be key drivers of business cycles in open economies. This paper argues that terms-of-trade shocks were also important for house price fluctuations in a panel of developed countries over the 1994–2015 period. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, E, E3, E32, E5, E51, F, F3, F36, F4, F41 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Household and business credit, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
Assessing Global Potential Output Growth: April 2018 Staff analytical note 2018-9 Richard Beard, Anne-Katherine Cormier, Michael Francis, Katerina Gribbin, Justin-Damien Guénette, Christopher Hajzler, James Ketcheson, Kun Mo, Louis Poirier, Peter Selcuk, Kristina Hess This note presents our estimates of potential output growth for the global economy through 2020. Overall, we expect global potential output growth to remain broadly stable over the projection horizon, averaging 3.3 per cent, although there is considerable uncertainty surrounding these estimates. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): E, E1, E10, E2, E20, O, O4 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply, Digitalization and productivity
December 6, 2012 Financial System Review - December 2012 The Governing Council judges that the risks to the stability of Canada’s financial system remain high, as they were at the time of the June FSR. The sources of the key risks are similar to those highlighted in June, and emanate primarily from the external environment. Content Type(s): Publications, Financial Stability Report
April 20, 2005 Conference Summary: Canada in the Global Economy Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2005 Lawrence L. Schembri The Bank of Canada's 2004 research conference examined the real and financial linkages between the Canadian economy and the economies in the rest of the world. Although Canada has profited enormously from its openness to international trade in goods, services, and financial assets, many of the most significant shocks to the Canadian economy in recent years have come from abroad. For these reasons, understanding the extent and nature of the external linkages, their implications for the Canadian economy, and the process by which the Canadian economy adjusts to external shocks is of critical importance both for monetary policy and for monitoring the financial system. This article describes the purpose of the conference—to deepen economists' understanding of these important issues—and provides highlights of the papers presented in each of the five sessions, as well as summaries of the keynote lecture and the discussion of the policy panel. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles
July 24, 2024 Monetary Policy Report—July 2024—Projections Economic growth in Canada is forecast to improve in the second half of 2024 and strengthen further in 2025 and 2026. Core inflation is expected to ease gradually, while the path of CPI inflation will be bumpy.
October 3, 2023 Understanding the unusual: How firms set prices during periods of high inflation Remarks Nicolas Vincent Chamber of Commerce of Metropolitan Montreal Montréal, Quebec Deputy Governor Nicolas Vincent discusses how firms set their prices and how pricing behaviour changed in our recent environment of high inflation. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Subject(s): Monetary policy, Economic models, Economy/Economic growth, Inflation, Inflation targeting framework
November 27, 2008 Fostering Financial System Stability Remarks Pierre Duguay Pictou County Chamber of Commerce Pictou, Nova Scotia The Canadian financial system has fared relatively well through this crisis, thanks to effective regulation and prudent practices that have worked like sandbags to protect our financial system from the storms in today's global economy. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks
June 21, 2006 Using the Contingent Claims Approach to Assess Credit Risk in the Canadian Business Sector Financial System Review - June 2006 Michal Kozak, Meyer Aaron, Céline Gauthier Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles
October 27, 2021 Monetary Policy Report – October 2021 The Canadian economy is once again growing robustly, and the recovery from COVID-19 continues. The Bank is forecasting growth of around 5 percent in 2021, 4 ¼ percent in 2022 and 3 ¾ percent in 2023. Content Type(s): Publications, Monetary Policy Report