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Systemically important payments systems are systems that, because of the size or the nature of the payments they process, could trigger or transmit serious shocks across domestic or international financial systems if they were insufficiently protected against risk. This article describes the overall framework of core principles developed for the design, operation, and oversight of such payments systems. The article reviews the role of the task force established to develop the core principles and examines the core principles themselves. It also examines the role of central banks in overseeing major payments systems and in applying the core principles to them. The focus is on the Bank of Canada's oversight responsibilities under the Payment Clearing and Settlement Act and on Canada's systemically important payments system—the LVTS.

The outlook for the global economy has deteriorated significantly since the October Monetary Policy Report. The financial crisis intensified last autumn and spilled over into an already weak global economy, which, in turn, put further strains on the financial system.

Erratum: In Table 1 Interest Rates, the column "Estimated variable mortgage rate" should read 5.65 per cent for 4 December 2007 not 5.25.

The Financial System Review is one vehicle that the Bank of Canada uses to contribute to the strength of the Canadian financial system. The Developments and Trends section of the Review aims to provide analysis and discussion of current developments and trends in the Canadian financial sector.

The turmoil in global financial markets entered a new phase in September, moving to a more acute and broad-based loss of confidence in the context of a series of failures and near-failures of large financial institutions in the United States and Europe.

FSR Highlights - December 2008

This paper reviews the range of extraordinary programs launched by the Bank of Canada in response to the pandemic-related financial market disruption. It provides some recommendations for future interventions to ensure the programs are appropriately structured for the financial and economic stresses they are intended to address.

Inflation remained low for the seventh consecutive year, and the inflation target range of 1 to 3 per cent was extended to 2001.

For several decades, the prices of services have been rising more rapidly than the prices of goods in Canada and the other major industrialized countries. In 2002, this gap between the growth rates of these two components of the consumer price index (CPI) widened considerably, leading researchers to ask if this was the beginning of a trend. Analysis reveals, however, that the gap is based on short-term dynamics and that it appears to be independent of the trend in the development of the overall price level. Evidence also shows that the gap is eventually reabsorbed. The authors examine a number of potential causes for the prices of services to rise faster than those of goods. These include the more rapid pace of productivity growth in the goods sector, the greater openness of goods to foreign trade, and stronger growth in the demand for services.

The financial system makes an important contribution to the welfare of all Canadians. The ability of households and firms to confidently hold and transfer financial assets is one of the fundamental building blocks of the Canadian economy.

We propose an early warning model for predicting the likelihood of a financial stress event for a given future time, and examine whether credit plays an important role in the model as a non-linear propagator of shocks.