Financial Development and the Volatility of Income Staff Working Paper 2013-4 Tiago Pinheiro, Francisco Rivadeneyra, Marc Teignier This paper presents a general equilibrium model with endogenous collateral constraints to study the relationship between financial development and business cycle fluctuations in a cross-section of economies with different sizes of their financial sector. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Financial stability JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E6, E60
Trade Flows and Exchange Rates: Importers, Exporters and Products Staff Working Paper 2019-41 Michael Devereux, Wei Dong, Ben Tomlin Using highly disaggregated transaction-level trade data, we document the importance of new firm-level trade partner relationships and the addition of new products to existing relationships in driving aggregate trade flows. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Exchange rates, Firm dynamics, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F1, F4
Evaluating the Quarterly Projection Model: A Preliminary Investigation Staff Working Paper 2002-20 Robert Amano, Kim McPhail, Hope Pioro, Andrew Rennison This paper summarizes the results of recent research evaluating the Bank of Canada's Quarterly Projection Model (QPM). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models JEL Code(s): C, C5, C52, E, E1, E17, E3, E30, E37
Evaluating the Effects of Forward Guidance and Large-scale Asset Purchases Staff Working Paper 2021-54 Xu Zhang I propose a novel method to identify and estimate the macroeconomic effects of forward guidance and large-scale asset purchases (LSAP) for each FOMC announcement. I find that LSAP is more important than forward guidance in influencing output and inflation. LSAP puts upward pressure on short-term yields, so it should always be used in conjunction with forward guidance. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Central bank research, Econometric and statistical methods, Interest rates JEL Code(s): E, E5, G, G0
January 23, 2013 Monetary Policy Report – January 2013 Following an estimated 1.9 per cent in 2012, the Canadian economy is expected to grow by 2.0 per cent in 2013 and 2.7 per cent in 2014, and to reach full capacity in the second half of 2014, later than anticipated in the October Report. Content Type(s): Publications, Monetary Policy Report
A Model of Housing Stock for Canada Staff Working Paper 2010-19 David Dupuis, Yi Zheng Using an error-correction model (ECM) framework, the authors attempt to quantify the degree of disequilibrium in Canadian housing stock over the period 1961–2008 for the national aggregate and over 1981–2008 for the provinces. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Domestic demand and components JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, J, J0, J00
The Direct Effect of China on Canadian Consumer Prices: An Empirical Assessment Staff Discussion Paper 2007-10 Louis Morel The author investigates the direct effect of Chinese imported goods on consumer prices in Canada. On average, over the 2001–06 period, the direct effect of consumer goods imported from China is estimated to have reduced the inflation rate by about 0.1 percentage points per year. This disinflationary effect is due to two causes: first, the […] Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31
The Impact of Government Debt Supply on Bond Market Liquidity: An Empirical Analysis of the Canadian Market Staff Working Paper 2018-35 Jeffrey Gao, Jianjian Jin, Jacob Thompson This paper finds that Government of Canada benchmark bonds tend to be more illiquid over the subsequent month when there is a large increase in government debt supply. The result is both statistically and economically significant, stronger for the long-term than the short-term sector, and is robust when other macro factors are controlled for. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Debt management, Financial markets JEL Code(s): D, D5, D53, G, G1, G12, G18, G2, G3, G32
October 23, 2002 Monetary Policy Report – October 2002 Over the past year, Canada’s economy has outperformed the economies of virtually all the other major industrial countries. Content Type(s): Publications, Monetary Policy Report
The Neutral Rate of Interest in Canada Staff Discussion Paper 2014-5 Rhys R. Mendes A measure of the neutral policy interest rate can be used to gauge the stance of monetary policy. We define the neutral rate as the real policy rate consistent with output at its potential level and inflation equal to target after the effects of all cyclical shocks have dissipated. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Interest rates, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E4, E40, E42, E43, E5, E50, E52, E58