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The Bank projects the Canadian economy will grow by 2.4 per cent in 2012 and 2013 before moderating to 2.2 per cent in 2014. The economy is now expected to return to full capacity in the first half of 2013.

Since 1997 when the Bank of Canada last published a review of the Canadian overnight market, several important changes have affected the market's structure and dynamics. Reid provides a current overview of the market, examining the financial instruments, market transparency and flows, and the collateralized overnight rate as it has evolved since the introduction of the Large Value Transfer System and the fixed announcement dates. Other significant influences include changes in market practices regarding risk management, the rise of securities lending, the increased demand for collateral, and the Bank of Canada's measures to reinforce the target for the overnight rate.

In this paper, we empirically study how flagship entry in an online marketplace affects consumers, the platform, and various sellers on the platform. We find flagship entry may benefit consumers by expanding the choice set, by intensifying price competition within the entry brand, and by improving consumer perception for parts of the platform.

We study the impact government expenditure has on inflation. We find that changes in government expenditure account for a substantial portion of inflation variations. We also find that inflation and inflation expectations respond negatively to fiscal spending shocks, reaffirming the supply-side channel through which inflation responds to fiscal expansions.

An important channel in the transmission of monetary policy is the relationship between the short-term policy rate and long-term interest rates. Using a new term-structure model, the authors show that the variation in long-term interest rates over time consists of two components: one representing investor expectations of future policy rates, and another reflecting a term-structure risk premium that compensates investors for holding a risky asset. The time variation in the term-structure risk premium is countercyclical and largely determined by global macroeconomic conditions. As a result, long-term rates are pushed up during recessions and down during times of expansion. This is an important phenomenon that central banks need to take into account when using short-term rates as a policy tool.

Interconnectedness among insurers and reinsurers at a global level is not well understood and may pose a significant risk to the sector, with implications for the macroeconomy. Models of the complex interactions among reinsurers and with other participants in the financial system and the real economy are at a very early stage of development.

In this paper, the authors assess the relationship between digitalization and labour demand and supply, and how this relationship affects wages and income inequality. We also explore implications of recent digitalization trends for the future of work.

We study the transmission and third-country effects of international sanctions. A sanctioned country’s losses are mitigated, and the sanctioning country’s losses amplified, if a third country does not join the sanctions, but the third country benefits from not joining.

The history of Canada's money provides a unique perspective from which to view the growth and development of the Canadian economy and Canada as a nation. Author James Powell traces the evolution of Canadian money form its pre-colonial origins to the present day, highlighting the currency chaos of the colonial period, as well as the effects of two world wars and the Great Depression.

Governor Mark Carney discusses globalization, financial stability and employment.