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While greater global financial integration is beneficial, the authors discuss how foreign capital inflows can also facilitate the buildup of domestic vulnerabilities and potentially lead to destabilizing reversals. Canada’s current international investment position is typical of advanced economies and will likely continue to act as an economic stabilizer. However, the growth and composition of Canada’s international investment position warrant continued monitoring.

Terms-of-trade shocks are known to be key drivers of business cycles in open economies. This paper argues that terms-of-trade shocks were also important for house price fluctuations in a panel of developed countries over the 1994–2015 period.

Overview The purpose of the consultations is to obtain market views on issues relating to the design and operation of government debt programs over 2001—02, with a focus on the Treasury bill program. The following provides a brief description of the issues to be covered: Context The objectives of debt strategy are to provide stable, […]

Building on an earlier Review article, the authors critically reassess the premise that exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) has declined in light of recent studies of the issue in the context of a dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium framework.

The authors document the out-of-sample forecasting accuracy of the New Keynesian model for Canada.

The analysis and forecasting of developments in the U.S. economy have always played a critical role in the formulation of Canadian economic and financial policy. Thus, the Bank places considerable importance on generating internal forecasts of U.S. economic activity as an input to the Canadian projection.

The authors compute welfare-maximizing Taylor rules in a dynamic general-equilibrium model of a small open economy.

Repeated interactions between borrowers and lenders create the possibility of dynamic pricing: lenders compete aggressively with low prices to attract new borrowers and then raise their prices once borrowers have made a commitment. We find such pricing patterns in the Canadian mortgage market.

The Reports section of the Financial System Review examines selected issues of relevance to the Canadian and global financial systems. The December 2014 issue features two reports on important developments in the financial system: rapid growth and innovation in the market for exchange-traded funds, and the increasing significance of cyber attacks to the operational resilience of financial institutions and financial market infrastructures.

We construct a dataset on Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada non-rate announcement events to provide novel insights into how foreign and domestic monetary policy communications affect the financial markets of open economies. We find that Fed non-rate communications have a stronger impact on long-term interest rates and stock futures, while Bank of Canada communications are relatively more important for short-term interest rates and the exchange rate.