Vertical Specialization and Gains from Trade Staff working paper 2017-17 Patrick Alexander Multi-stage production is widely recognized as an important feature of the modern global economy. This feature has been incorporated into many state-of-the-art quantitative trade models, and has been shown to deliver significant additional gains from international trade. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): F, F1, F11, F14, F6, F60 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Structural challenges, International trade, finance and competitiveness
The Impact of Government Debt Supply on Bond Market Liquidity: An Empirical Analysis of the Canadian Market Staff working paper 2018-35 Jeffrey Gao, Jianjian Jin, Jacob Thompson This paper finds that Government of Canada benchmark bonds tend to be more illiquid over the subsequent month when there is a large increase in government debt supply. The result is both statistically and economically significant, stronger for the long-term than the short-term sector, and is robust when other macro factors are controlled for. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D5, D53, G, G1, G12, G18, G2, G3, G32 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Funds management, Market functioning
Evaluating the Effects of Forward Guidance and Large-scale Asset Purchases Staff working paper 2021-54 Xu Zhang I propose a novel method to identify and estimate the macroeconomic effects of forward guidance and large-scale asset purchases (LSAP) for each FOMC announcement. I find that LSAP is more important than forward guidance in influencing output and inflation. LSAP puts upward pressure on short-term yields, so it should always be used in conjunction with forward guidance. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E5, G, G0 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy tools and implementation
October 24, 2012 Monetary Policy Report – October 2012 The Bank projects that the economy will grow by 2.2 per cent in 2012, 2.3 per cent in 2013 and 2.4 per cent in 2014. The economy is expected to return to full capacity by the end of 2013. Content Type(s): Publications, Monetary Policy Report
May 23, 2004 Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2004 Cover page The Millennial Celebrations in Ancient Rome The coins pictured on the cover range from approximately 20 to 35 mm in diameter and form part of the National Currency Collection, Bank of Canada. Photography by Gord Carter, Ottawa Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review
The Neutral Interest Rate: Past, Present and Future Staff discussion paper 2024-3 Matteo Cacciatore, Bruno Feunou, Galip Kemal Ozhan The decline in safe real interest rates over the past three decades has reignited discussions on the neutral real interest rate, known as R*. We address the determinants and estimation methods of R*, as well as the factors influencing its decline and its future trajectory. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E5, E52, E6, E62 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Real economy and forecasting
July 18, 2012 Monetary Policy Report – July 2012 The Bank projects that the economy will grow by 2.1 per cent in 2012, 2.3 per cent in 2013 and 2.5 per cent in 2014. The economy is expected to reach full capacity in the second half of 2013. Content Type(s): Publications, Monetary Policy Report
October 23, 2002 Monetary Policy Report – October 2002 Over the past year, Canada’s economy has outperformed the economies of virtually all the other major industrial countries. Content Type(s): Publications, Monetary Policy Report
Digital Payments in Firm Networks: Theory of Adoption and Quantum Algorithm Staff working paper 2024-17 Sofia Priazhkina, Samuel Palmer, Pablo Martín-Ramiro, Román Orús, Samuel Mugel, Vladimir Skavysh We build a network formation game of firms with trade flows to study the adoption and usage of a new digital currency as an alternative to correspondent banking. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C6, C7, C71, D, D4, D8, D85, G, L, L2, L22 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Money and payments, Digital assets and fintech, Payment and financial market infrastructures
Let’s Get Physical: Impacts of Climate Change Physical Risks on Provincial Employment Staff working paper 2024-32 Thibaut Duprey, Soojin Jo, Geneviève Vallée We analyze 40 years’ worth of natural disasters using a local projection framework to assess their impact on provincial labour markets in Canada. We find that disasters decrease hours worked within a week and lower wage growth in the medium run. Our study highlights that disasters affect vulnerable workers through the income channel. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C3, C33, E, E2, E24, J, J3, Q, Q5, Q54 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Climate change, Demographics and labour supply