Assessing the effects of higher immigration on the Canadian economy and inflation Staff analytical note 2023-17 Julien Champagne, Erik Ens, Xing Guo, Olena Kostyshyna, Alexander Lam, Corinne Luu, Sarah Miller, Patrick Sabourin, Joshua Slive, Temel Taskin, Jaime Trujillo, Shu Lin Wee We assess the complex macroeconomic implications of Canada’s recent population increases. We find that newcomers significantly boost the non-inflationary, potential growth of the economy, but existing imbalances in the housing sector may be exacerbated. Greater housing supply is needed to complement the long-term economic benefits of population growth. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes JEL Code(s): A, A1, A10, E, E2, E20, E3, E31, J, J1, J11, J15 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Demographics and labour supply
SME Failures Under Large Liquidity Shocks: An Application to the COVID-19 Crisis Staff working paper 2023-32 Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan, Veronika Penciakova, Nicholas Sander We study the effects of financial frictions on firm exit when firms face large liquidity shocks. We develop a simple model of firm cost-minimization that introduces a financial friction that limits firms’ borrowing capacity to smooth temporary shocks to liquidity. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): D, D2, D21, D22, E, E6, E65, H, H8, H81 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Household and business credit, Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting
June 23, 2005 Credit Default Swaps and the Canadian Context Financial System Review - June 2005 Christopher Reid Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Review articles
Uncertainty and Monetary Policy Experimentation: Empirical Challenges and Insights from Academic Literature Staff discussion paper 2022-9 Matteo Cacciatore, Dmitry Matveev, Rodrigo Sekkel Central banks face considerable uncertainty when conducting monetary policy. The COVID-19 pandemic brought this issue back to the forefront of policy discussions. We draw from academic literature to review key sources of uncertainty and how they affect the conduct of monetary policy. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): E, E3, E5 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework and transmission, Monetary policy tools and implementation, Real economy and forecasting
May 11, 2000 Monetary Policy Report – May 2000 The global economy has shown greater strength than was anticipated at the time of the November Report. Content Type(s): Publications, Monetary Policy Report
October 23, 2008 Monetary Policy Report – October 2008 Three major interrelated global developments are having a profound impact on the Canadian economy and making the outlook more uncertain than it was at the time of the July Monetary Policy Report Update. Content Type(s): Publications, Monetary Policy Report
March 18, 2008 Canada's Experience with a Flexible Exchange Rate in the 1950s: Valuable Lessons Learned Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2008 Lawrence L. Schembri Schembri studies Canada's post-World War II experience in introducing a floating exchange rate, including its effects on the Canadian economy and its influence on the development of macroeconomic theory. In particular, Canada's flexible exchange rate and high degree of capital mobility with the United States provided an unprecedented experiment for macroeconomic policy. The successes and difficulties encountered by Canadian authorities in managing monetary and fiscal policy under this regime drew the interest of researchers at the International Monetary Fund and elsewhere and had a significant impact on the development of the Mundell-Fleming model, the path-breaking innovation in modern open-economy macroeconomics. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles
Central Bank Crisis Interventions: A Review of the Recent Literature on Potential Costs Staff discussion paper 2023-30 Patrick Aldridge, David Cimon, Rishi Vala Central banks’ actions to stabilize financial markets and implement monetary policy during crises may come with costs and side effects. We provide a literature review of these costs and discuss measures that may mitigate the negative impacts of crisis actions. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): E, E5, E58, G, G1, G10, G2, G20 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Monetary policy, Monetary policy tools and implementation
Estimating the Appropriate Quantity of Settlement Balances in a Floor System Staff discussion paper 2023-26 Narayan Bulusu, Matthew McNeely, Kaetlynd McRae, Jonathan Witmer This paper presents two complementary approaches to estimating the appropriate quantity of settlement balances needed to effectively operate monetary policy under a floor system in Canada. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E41, E42, E5, E52, E58, G, G2, G21, G28 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Monetary policy tools and implementation, Money and payments, Payment and financial market infrastructures
The “Too Big to Fail” Subsidy in Canada: Some Estimates Staff working paper 2018-9 Patricia Palhau Mora Implicit government guarantees of banking-sector liabilities reduce market discipline by private sector stakeholders and temper the risk sensitivity of funding costs. This potentially increases the likelihood of bailouts from taxpayers, especially in the absence of effective resolution frameworks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): G, G1, G13, G2, G21, G28 Research Theme(s): Financial system, Financial stability and systemic risk, Financial system regulation and oversight