Search

We propose an early warning model for predicting the likelihood of a financial stress event for a given future time, and examine whether credit plays an important role in the model as a non-linear propagator of shocks.

The Canadian economy regained strong momentum in 1999 as the U.S. economy remained vigorous, the global economy recovered, and commodity prices moved upwards.

While monetary stability through low inflation is crucial to good economic performance, our economy cannot function properly unless it is also supported by an efficient and stable financial system. And as the world economy becomes increasingly interconnected, sound macroeconomic policies and sound financial systems across all countries are even more essential.

This note reviews the emerging evidence on AI’s labour-market and productivity effects, highlighting early task-level impacts, sizable micro level productivity gains, and the macroeconomic challenges these pose for monetary policy during the transition.

An objective assessment of the effects of the appreciation of the Canadian dollar in 2003 and 2004 on exports and imports requires a detailed review of the numerous other factors which may have been at play. Dion, Laurence, and Zheng discuss the influences that have affected Canada's international trade over the past two years, including exchange rate movements, global and sector-specific shocks, constraints on the domestic supply of a few products, and competition from emerging economies, most notably, China. The analysis is complemented with econometric models developed at the Bank which provide statistically valid estimates of the contribution of the Canadian-dollar appreciation to the recent developments in exports and imports.

Indeed, the global financial crisis of the past two years has presented unique, stressful challenges that have forced us all to assess what has worked well and what needs to change. Today, I would like to review some of the critical thinking around these issues, primarily from the perspective of our work at the Bank of Canada.

The Canadian financial system has fared relatively well through this crisis, thanks to effective regulation and prudent practices that have worked like sandbags to protect our financial system from the storms in today's global economy.

Inflation in Canada and around the world has been coming down. The Bank projects that inflation will stay around 3% for the next year, returning to the 2% target by the middle of 2025.

How much of a CBDC would Canadian households want to hold, and what design features of a CBDC would they care about?

Several measures suggest economic outcomes have improved for Indigenous Peoples in recent decades. Yet, institutional settings and gaps in infrastructure and financing continue to hinder their economic progress. Recent efforts have helped address some data gaps, and new institutions are helping Indigenous communities to overcome historic barriers to growth.