December 23, 2006 Global Savings, Investment, and World Real Interest Rates Bank of Canada Review - Winter 2006-2007 Brigitte Desroches, Michael Francis Over the past 25 years, world long-term interest rates have declined to levels not seen since the 1960s. This decline has been accompanied by falling world investment and savings rates. The authors explore global saving and investment outcomes that have led to the fall in the world real interest rate. The results show that the key factors explaining movements in savings and investment are variables that evolve relatively slowly over time, such as labour force growth and the age structure of the world economy. The conclusions suggest that, over the coming years, it is unlikely that these slowly changing variables will be a source of significant changes in world real interest rates. Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Research Topic(s): Interest rates, International topics
January 24, 2024 Monetary Policy Report – January 2024 Interest rates are working to moderate spending and inflation is easing gradually, though underlying pressures are proving persistent. The Bank projects that inflation will stay around 3% through the first half of 2024, returning to target in 2025. Content Type(s): Publications, Monetary Policy Report
Governance and Financial Fragility: Evidence from a Cross-Section of Countries Staff Working Paper 2003-34 Michael Francis The author explores the role of governance mechanisms as a means of reducing financial fragility. First, he develops a simple theoretical general-equilibrium model in which instability arises due to an agency problem resulting from a conflict of interest between the borrower and lender. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Financial markets JEL Code(s): G, G0
June 30, 2015 Research Update - June 2015 This monthly newsletter features the latest research publications by Bank of Canada economists including external publications and working papers published on the Bank of Canada’s website. Content Type(s): Staff research, Research newsletters
August 25, 2020 Perceived inflation and reality: understanding the difference Remarks (delivered virtually) Lawrence L. Schembri Canadian Association for Business Economics Kingston, Ontario In a virtual address to the Canadian Association for Business Economics, Deputy Governor Lawrence Schembri discusses the difference between how Canadians perceive inflation and the actual measured rate. He explains why that gap may exist and what it could mean for monetary policy and the economy. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, Monetary policy
December 23, 2002 Financial System Review - December 2002 The financial system, which consists of financial institutions, financial markets, and clearing and settlement systems, lays an important role in a nation’s economy. Sound and efficientfinancial systems can make a significant contribution to economic growth. Content Type(s): Publications, Financial Stability Report
September 20, 2022 Macroeconomics of the 2020s: What we’ve learned, and what’s to come Remarks Paul Beaudry University of Waterloo Faculty of Arts Distinguished Lecture in Economics Waterloo, Ontario Deputy Governor Paul Beaudry discusses the macroeconomic lessons we’ve learned during the COVID-19 pandemic, and what lies ahead to bring inflation back to target. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Expectations, Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, International topics, Labour markets, Monetary policy implementation, Recent economic and financial developments
The Resolution of International Financial Crises: Private Finance and Public Funds Staff Working Paper 2001-20 Andy Haldane, Mark Kruger Over the past year and a half, the Bank of England and the Bank of Canada have been developing a framework for the resolution of international financial crises that aligns incentives for all parties to deal with a crisis and preserve the integrity of the international financial system. The framework is built on principles, not rules. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): International topics JEL Code(s): F, F3, F34, F4, F42
Regulation, Emissions and Productivity: Evidence from China’s Eleventh Five-Year Plan Staff Working Paper 2024-7 Brantly Callaway, Tong Li, Joel Rodrigue, Yuya Sasaki, Yong Tan We study the degree to which China’s 11th Five-Year Plan softens trade-offs between emissions and output. Our model suggests efficient regulation could have further increased aggregate productivity by 3.5% and output by 4.7% without any increase in aggregate emissions. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Climate change, Productivity JEL Code(s): C, C2, C21, D, D2, D24, Q, Q5, Q53
Relative Price Movements and Labour Productivity in Canada: A VAR Analysis Staff Discussion Paper 2010-5 Michael Dolega, David Dupuis, Lise Pichette In recent years, the Canadian economy has been affected by strong movements in relative prices brought about by the surging costs of energy and non-energy commodities, with significant implications for the terms of trade, the exchange rate, and the allocation of resources across Canadian sectors and regions. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Labour markets, Productivity, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E2, E23, E24, O, O4, O47