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Productivity plays a critical role when it comes to our national standard of living. Productivity growth is the main element that contributes to continued improvements in real incomes and overall prosperity. Rising productivity lets businesses pay higher wages, while keeping costs down, employment high, and profits coming in. That's why economists like me spend a lot of time thinking about ways to improve the productivity of our economy.

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Promissory Note, 1712

The note measures 28 cm x 16 cm and forms part of the National Currency Collection, Bank of Canada.

Photography by Gord Carter, Ottawa

It's great to be back in Vancouver and to renew acquaintances at the Board of Trade. I'm going to spend some time today discussing the Bank of Canada's outlook for the Canadian economy and inflation, and how we are responding. But in order to understand the current economic situation, we need to look at some of the extraordinary events of the past year or so and how those events have affected the economy.

Global economic growth has been somewhat stronger than projected, with momentum in emerging-market economies increasing noticeably.

The Bank of Canada has played an integral role in Canadian society for 70 years. When the Bank opened its doors in the spring of 1935, this country was struggling to define itself and to survive the economic and social turmoil of the Great Depression. Like Canada’s economy, its central bank has evolved and grown over the years. It has faced critical challenges and embraced change. But the Bank’s mandate has not changed. It is now, as it was then, to provide an effective, national monetary authority for Canada.

The Bank projects that growth in the Canadian economy will accelerate from 1.6 percent this year to 2 percent in 2021.

The outlook for the global economy has deteriorated significantly since the October Monetary Policy Report. The financial crisis intensified last autumn and spilled over into an already weak global economy, which, in turn, put further strains on the financial system.

Erratum: In Table 1 Interest Rates, the column "Estimated variable mortgage rate" should read 5.65 per cent for 4 December 2007 not 5.25.

This monthly newsletter features the latest research publications by Bank of Canada economists including external publications and working papers published on the Bank of Canada’s website.

Monetary policy actions take a relatively long time to affect the economy and inflation—anywhere between 12 to 24 months. Because of this, central banks must always look ahead and must put in place today the monetary conditions that are needed to help keep the economy on a sustainable path down the road. By 'sustainable' I mean a situation where economic growth and job creation are not at risk from rising inflation.