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This paper examines the role of bank credit in modeling and forecasting business cycle fluctuations, and investigates the international transmission of US credit shocks, using a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) framework and associated country-specific error correction models.

Growth in the global economy began to slow in the fourth quarter of 2007 and the first quarter of 2008. This reflected the effects of the slowdown in the U.S. economy and ongoing dislocations in global financial markets.

Today, I want to focus my remarks on Canada's adjustment to changes in the global economy. I will talk about our efforts to adjust to longer-term economic forces and about the challenges that these forces present. Some of our experiences may be relevant to other economies that are making similar adjustments in the face of similar economic circumstances.

This paper predicts phases of the financial cycle by using a continuous financial stress measure in a Markov switching framework. The debt service ratio and property market variables signal a transition to a high financial stress regime, while economic sentiment indicators provide signals for a transition to a tranquil state.

The Canadian economy is now clearly in excess demand, and inflation is high and broadening. The Bank is projecting inflation to decline to about 3% by the end of 2023, and to return to the 2% target by the end of 2024.

We are three years into the global financial crisis, and its dynamics still dominate the economic outlook. In particular, broad forces of bank, household, and sovereign deleveraging can be expected to add to the variability and temper the pace of global economic growth in the years ahead.

Given the rapid and ongoing integration of the global economy, the International Monetary Fund needs to renew its role, governance structure, and functions if it is to maintain its relevance as the institution charged with promoting global financial stability. Lecavalier and Santor examine the areas of possible reform, including quota, voice, and representation; internal governance; surveillance; lending instruments; finances; and the Fund's role in low-income countries. They also review current Bank of Canada research that supports these reform efforts, including an integrated framework for IMF surveillance recently developed at the Bank.

This note analyzes different economic models of a central bank digital currency (CBDC) ecosystem where the central bank chooses different levels of market involvement and usage of policy levers. The analysis suggests that there are trade-offs between the costs to the central bank and its ability to achieve policy goals like universal access.

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Brass Cash Register, 1910

The register is part of the National Currency Collection, Bank of Canada.

Photographed by Gord Carter, Ottawa.

Inflation in Canada remains high but should come down quickly to around 3% in the middle of this year because of lower energy prices, improved supply chains and restrictive monetary policy. The Bank projects that inflation will reach the 2% target by the end of 2024.