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41 Results

Time-Varying Crash Risk: The Role of Stock Market Liquidity

We estimate a continuous-time model with stochastic volatility and dynamic crash probability for the S&P 500 index and find that market illiquidity dominates other factors in explaining the stock market crash risk. While the crash probability is time-varying, its dynamic depends only weakly on return variance once we include market illiquidity as an economic variable in the model.

A New Data Set of Quarterly Total Factor Productivity in the Canadian Business Sector

Staff Working Paper 2015-6 Shutao Cao, Sharon Kozicki
In this paper, a quarterly growth-accounting data set is built for the Canadian business sector with the top-down approach of Diewert and Yu (2012). Inputs and outputs are measured and used to estimate the quarterly total factor productivity (TFP).
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Productivity JEL Code(s): D, D2, D24, F, F4, F43, O, O4, O47

Text Mining and the Information Content of Bank of Canada Communications

Staff Working Paper 2010-31 Scott Hendry, Alison Madeley
This paper uses Latent Semantic Analysis to extract information from Bank of Canada communication statements and investigates what type of information affects returns and volatility in short-term as well as long-term interest rate markets over the 2002-2008 period.

Efficiency and Bargaining Power in the Interbank Loan Market

Staff Working Paper 2012-29 Jason Allen, James Chapman, Federico Echenique, Matthew Shum
Using detailed loan transactions-level data we examine the efficiency of an overnight interbank lending market, and the bargaining power of its participants. Our analysis relies on the equilibrium concept of the core, which imposes a set of no-arbitrage conditions on trades in the market.

Trade and Diffusion of Embodied Technology: An Empirical Analysis

Using data from patents, citations, inter-sectoral sales and customs, we examine the international diffusion of technology through imports of sectoral knowledge and production inputs. We develop an instrumental variable strategy to identify the causal effects of technology embodied in imports on innovation and diffusion outcomes.

Financial Constraints and Investment: Assessing the Impact of a World Bank Loan Program on Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises in Sri Lanka

Staff Working Paper 2003-37 Varouj Aivazian, Dipak Mazumdar, Eric Santor
The authors examine the investment behaviour of a sample of small, credit-constrained firms in Sri Lanka. Using a unique panel-data set, they analyze and compare the activities of two groups of small firms distinguished by their different access to financing; one group consists of firms with heavily subsidized loans from the World Bank, and the other consists of firms without such subsidies.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Development economics JEL Code(s): G, G0, G00, O, O1, O16

Building New Plants or Entering by Acquisition? Estimation of an Entry Model for the U.S. Cement Industry

Staff Working Paper 2011-1 Héctor Pérez Saiz
In many industries, firms usually have two choices when expanding into new markets: They can either build a new plant (greenfield entry) or they can acquire an existing incumbent. In the U.S. cement industry, the comparative advantage (e.g., TFP or size) of entrants versus incumbents and regulatory entry barriers are important factors that determine the means of expansion.

Towards a More Complete Debt Strategy Simulation Framework

Staff Working Paper 2002-13 David Bolder
An effective technique governments use to evaluate the desirability of different financing strategies involves stochastic simulation. This approach requires the postulation of the future dynamics of key macroeconomic variables and the use of those variables in the construction of a debt charge distribution for each individual financing strategy.

Financial Intermediaries and the Macroeconomy: Evidence from a High-Frequency Identification

Staff Working Paper 2022-24 Pablo Ottonello, Wenting Song
We provide empirical evidence of effects to the aggregate economy from surprises about financial intermediaries’ net worth based on a high-frequency identification strategy. We estimate that news of a 1% decline in intermediaries’ net worth leads to a 0.2%–0.4% decrease in the market value of nonfinancial firms.
November 10, 1996

The market for futures contracts on Canadian bankers' acceptances

The Montreal Exchange introduced futures contracts on 3-month Canadian bankers' acceptances, known as BAX, in 1988. In this article, the author explains the nature of this new instrument, which is bought and sold on the floor of the Exchange, and its role in hedging, speculation, and arbitrage. She briefly reviews the technical aspects of the market and explains the difference between BAX contracts and forward rate agreements. She also examines the market's rapid growth and its relationship to the market for treasury bills.
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