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51 Results

Tractable Term Structure Models

We introduce a new framework that facilitates term structure modeling with both positive interest rates and flexible time-series dynamics but that is also tractable, meaning amenable to quick and robust estimation.

The Role of Expenditure Switching in the Global Imbalance Adjustment

Staff Working Paper 2010-16 Wei Dong
In theory, nominal exchange rate movements can lead to “expenditure switching” when they generate changes in the relative prices of goods across countries. This paper explores whether the expenditure-switching role of exchange rates has changed in the current episode of significant global imbalances.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Exchange rates, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F3, F4

Futures Markets, Oil Prices and the Intertemporal Approach to the Current Account

Staff Working Paper 2008-48 Elif Arbatli
The intertemporal approach to the current account suggests modeling movements in the current account in a forward-looking, dynamic framework. In this framework, the current account reflects consumption smoothing of agents that lend and borrow from the rest of the world in the face of transitory shocks to income.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Balance of payments and components JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, F, F2, F21, F3, F32, G, G1, G13

IMF-Supported Adjustment Programs: Welfare Implications and the Catalytic Effect

Staff Working Paper 2007-22 Carlos De Resende
The author studies the welfare implications of adjustment programs supported by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). He uses a model where an endogenous borrowing constraint, set up by international lenders who will never lend more than a debt ceiling, forces the borrowing economy to always choose repayment over default.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): International topics JEL Code(s): F, F3, F32, F33, F34, F4, F41

Productivity, the Terms of Trade, and the Real Exchange Rate: The Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis Revisited

Staff Working Paper 2009-22 Ehsan U. Choudhri, Lawrence L. Schembri
The paper examines how the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis is affected by a modern variation of the standard model that allows product differentiation (within the traded and nontraded goods sectors) with the number of firms determined exogenously or endogenously.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Exchange rates, Productivity JEL Code(s): F, F3, F31, F4, F41

News-Driven International Credit Cycles

Staff Working Paper 2021-66 Galip Kemal Ozhan
This paper examines the implications of positive news about future asset values that turn out to be incorrect at a later date in an open economy model with banking. The model captures the patterns of bank credit and current account dynamics in Spain between 2000 and 2010. The model finds that the use of unconventional policies leads to a milder bust.

Monetary Policy and Redistribution in Open Economies

Staff Working Paper 2022-6 Xing Guo, Pablo Ottonello, Diego Perez
We study how different types of monetary policy shape the distributional effects of external economic shocks on households’ consumption in a small open economy. Our results present a trade-off between maintaining overall stabilization and controlling consumption inequality.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Exchange rate regimes, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E5, E52, F, F4, F41, F44

Credit Risk Transfer and Bank Insolvency Risk

Staff Working Paper 2017-59 Maarten van Oordt
The present paper shows that, everything else equal, some transactions to transfer portfolio credit risk to third-party investors increase the insolvency risk of banks. This is particularly likely if a bank sells the senior tranche and retains a sufficiently large first-loss position.

Energy Efficiency and Fluctuations in CO2 Emissions

Staff Working Paper 2021-47 Soojin Jo, Lilia Karnizova
Carbon dioxide emissions have been commonly modelled as rising and falling with total output. Yet many factors, such as energy-efficiency improvements and shifts to cleaner energy, can break this relationship. We evaluate these factors using US data and find that changes in energy efficiency of consumption goods explain a significant proportion of emissions fluctuations. This finding also implies that models that omit energy efficiency likely overestimate the trade-off between environmental protection and economic performance.
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