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52 Results

Liquidity of the Government of Canada Securities Market: Stylized Facts and Some Market Microstructure Comparisons to the United States Treasury Market

Staff Working Paper 1999-11 Toni Gravelle
The aims of this study are to examine how liquidity in the Government of Canada securities market has evolved over the 1990s and to determine what factors influence the level of liquidity in this market, with some comparisons to the U.S. Treasury securities market. We find empirical support for the hypothesis that an increase in […]
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial markets JEL Code(s): D, D4, G, G1, G2

Information Sharing and Bargaining in Buyer-Seller Networks

Staff Working Paper 2016-63 Sofia Priazhkina, Frank H. Page
This paper presents a model of strategic buyer-seller networks with information exchange between sellers. Prior to engaging in bargaining with buyers, sellers can share access to buyers for a negotiated transfer. We study how this information exchange affects overall market prices, volumes and welfare, given different initial market conditions and information sharing rules.

How Far Can Forecasting Models Forecast? Forecast Content Horizons for Some Important Macroeconomic Variables

Staff Working Paper 2007-1 John Galbraith, Greg Tkacz
For stationary transformations of variables, there exists a maximum horizon beyond which forecasts can provide no more information about the variable than is present in the unconditional mean. Meteorological forecasts, typically excepting only experimental or exploratory situations, are not reported beyond this horizon; by contrast, little generally accepted information about such maximum horizons is available for economic variables.

On Causal Networks of Financial Firms: Structural Identification via Non-parametric Heteroskedasticity

Staff Working Paper 2020-42 Ruben Hipp
Banks’ business interactions create a network of relationships that are hidden in the correlations of bank stock returns. But for policy interventions, we need causality to understand how the network changes. Thus, this paper looks for the causal network anticipated by investors.

Predictive Density Combination Using a Tree-Based Synthesis Function

This paper studies non-parametric combinations of density forecasts. We introduce a regression tree-based approach that allows combination weights to vary on the features of the densities, time-trends or economic indicators. In two empirical applications, we show the benefits of this approach in terms of improved forecast accuracy and interpretability.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, C3, C32, C5, C53

Financial Intermediaries and the Macroeconomy: Evidence from a High-Frequency Identification

Staff Working Paper 2022-24 Pablo Ottonello, Wenting Song
We provide empirical evidence of effects to the aggregate economy from surprises about financial intermediaries’ net worth based on a high-frequency identification strategy. We estimate that news of a 1% decline in intermediaries’ net worth leads to a 0.2%–0.4% decrease in the market value of nonfinancial firms.

Reconsidering Cointegration in International Finance: Three Case Studies of Size Distortion in Finite Samples

Staff Working Paper 1997-1 Marie-Josée Godbout, Simon van Norden
This paper reconsiders several recently published but controversial results about the behaviour of exchange rates. In particular, it explores finite-sample problems in the application of cointegration tests and shows how these may have affected the conclusions of recent research.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C1, C15, C2, C22, C3, C32, F, F3, F31

Trade and Diffusion of Embodied Technology: An Empirical Analysis

Using data from patents, citations, inter-sectoral sales and customs, we examine the international diffusion of technology through imports of sectoral knowledge and production inputs. We develop an instrumental variable strategy to identify the causal effects of technology embodied in imports on innovation and diffusion outcomes.

Building New Plants or Entering by Acquisition? Estimation of an Entry Model for the U.S. Cement Industry

Staff Working Paper 2011-1 Héctor Pérez Saiz
In many industries, firms usually have two choices when expanding into new markets: They can either build a new plant (greenfield entry) or they can acquire an existing incumbent. In the U.S. cement industry, the comparative advantage (e.g., TFP or size) of entrants versus incumbents and regulatory entry barriers are important factors that determine the means of expansion.
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