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49 Results

ToTEM III: The Bank of Canada’s Main DSGE Model for Projection and Policy Analysis

ToTEM III is the most recent generation of the Bank of Canada’s main dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for projection and policy analysis. The model helps Bank staff tell clear and coherent stories about the Canadian economy’s current state and future evolution.

Fiscal Policy in the Age of COVID-19: Does It “Get in All of the Cracks”?

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused an atypical recession in which some sectors of the economy boomed and others collapsed. This required a unique fiscal policy reaction to both support firms and stimulate activity in sectors with slack. Was fiscal policy able to get where it was needed? Mostly, yes.
January 30, 2001

Annual Report 2001

The year that just passed posed many challenges for all Canadians. The slowdown in the global economy became more pronounced as the year went on, and this affected households, businesses, and governments alike. The tragedy of 11 September compounded the economic difficulties and issues facing us all. Through this period of rapidly changing circumstances, the Bank met its responsibilities by responding quickly and vigorously to events in order to underpin confidence and support the economy.
Content Type(s): Publications, Annual Report

Household Risk Assessment Model

Technical Report No. 106 Brian Peterson, Tom Roberts
Household debt can be an important source of vulnerability to the financial system. This technical report describes the Household Risk Assessment Model (HRAM) that has been developed at the Bank of Canada to stress test household balance sheets at the individual level.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Financial stability, Housing, Sectoral balance sheet JEL Code(s): C, C0, C6, C63, C65, D, D0, D1, D14

Cyber Risk and Security Investment

Staff Working Paper 2022-32 Toni Ahnert, Michael Brolley, David Cimon, Ryan Riordan
We develop a principal-agent model of cyber-attacking with fee-paying clients who delegate security decisions to financial platforms. We derive testable implications about clients’ vulnerability to cyber attacks and about the fees charged.

Composite Likelihood Estimation of an Autoregressive Panel Probit Model with Random Effects

Staff Working Paper 2019-16 Kerem Tuzcuoglu
Modeling and estimating persistent discrete data can be challenging. In this paper, we use an autoregressive panel probit model where the autocorrelation in the discrete variable is driven by the autocorrelation in the latent variable. In such a non-linear model, the autocorrelation in an unobserved variable results in an intractable likelihood containing high-dimensional integrals.

Allocative Efficiency and the Productivity Slowdown

Staff Working Paper 2021-1 Lin Shao, Rongsheng Tang
In our analysis of the US productivity slowdown in the 1970s and 2000s, we find that a significant portion of this deceleration can be attributed to a lack of improvement in allocative efficiency across sectors. Our analysis further identifies increased sector-level volatility as a major contributor to this lack of improvement in allocative efficiency.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E2, E23, O, O4, O47
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