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123 Results

Survival Analysis of Bank Note Circulation: Fitness, Network Structure and Machine Learning

Staff Working Paper 2020-33 Diego Rojas, Juan Estrada, Kim Huynh, David T. Jacho-Chávez
Using the Bank of Canada's Currency Information Management Strategy, we analyze the network structure traced by a bank note’s travel in circulation and find that the denomination of the bank note is important in our potential understanding of the demand and use of cash.

Credit Risk Transfer and Bank Insolvency Risk

Staff Working Paper 2017-59 Maarten van Oordt
The present paper shows that, everything else equal, some transactions to transfer portfolio credit risk to third-party investors increase the insolvency risk of banks. This is particularly likely if a bank sells the senior tranche and retains a sufficiently large first-loss position.

Estimating the Impacts of Tariff Changes: Two Illustrative Scenarios

Staff Analytical Note 2018-29 Karyne B. Charbonneau, Anthony Landry
We build upon new developments in the international trade literature to construct a quantitative Ricardian framework similar to Caliendo and Parro (2015) to isolate and estimate the long-run economic impacts of tariff changes.

What to Expect When China Liberalizes Its Capital Account

Staff Discussion Paper 2016-10 Mark Kruger, Gurnain Pasricha
When China joined the World Trade Organization in December 2001, it marked a watershed for the world economy. Ten years from now, the opening of China’s capital account and the financial integration that will unfold will be viewed as a milestone of similar importance.

Generalized Autoregressive Gamma Processes

Staff Working Paper 2023-40 Bruno Feunou
We introduce generalized autoregressive gamma (GARG) processes, a class of autoregressive and moving-average processes in which each conditional moment dynamic is driven by a different and identifiable moving average of the variable of interest. We show that using GARG processes reduces pricing errors by substantially more than using existing autoregressive gamma processes does.

Understanding DeFi Through the Lens of a Production-Network Model

Staff Working Paper 2023-42 Jonathan Chiu, Thorsten Koeppl, Hanna Yu, Shengxing Zhang
We develop a production-network model to capture how decentralized finance (DeFi) has evolved across different sectors of financial services. The model allows us to measure the value added by different DeFi sectors and to study how the connections across the sectors influence token prices.

Fiscal Policy in the Age of COVID-19: Does It “Get in All of the Cracks”?

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused an atypical recession in which some sectors of the economy boomed and others collapsed. This required a unique fiscal policy reaction to both support firms and stimulate activity in sectors with slack. Was fiscal policy able to get where it was needed? Mostly, yes.

Time Use and Macroeconomic Uncertainty

Staff Working Paper 2023-29 Matteo Cacciatore, Stefano Gnocchi, Daniela Hauser
We estimate the effects of economic uncertainty on time use and discuss its macroeconomic implications. We develop a model to demonstrate that substitution between market and non-market work provides an additional insurance margin to households, weakening precautionary savings and labour supply and lowering aggregate demand, ultimately amplifying the contractionary effects of uncertainty.

ToTEM III: The Bank of Canada’s Main DSGE Model for Projection and Policy Analysis

ToTEM III is the most recent generation of the Bank of Canada’s main dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for projection and policy analysis. The model helps Bank staff tell clear and coherent stories about the Canadian economy’s current state and future evolution.
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