November 9, 2000 Monetary Policy Report – November 2000 Over the last six months, most countries have continued to register strong economic growth. Content Type(s): Publications, Monetary Policy Report
Learning, Equilibrium Trend, Cycle, and Spread in Bond Yields Staff working paper 2020-14 Guihai Zhao This equilibrium model explains the trend in long-term yields and business-cycle movements in short-term yields and yield spreads. The less-frequent inverted yield curves (and less-frequent recessions) after the 1990s are due to recent secular stagnation and procyclical inflation expectations. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, G, G0, G00, G1, G12 Research Theme(s): Financial markets and funds management, Market functioning, Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission
Behavioral Learning Equilibria in New Keynesian Models Staff working paper 2022-42 Cars Hommes, Kostas Mavromatis, Tolga Özden, Mei Zhu We introduce behavioral learning equilibria (BLE) into DSGE models with boundedly rational agents using simple but optimal first order autoregressive forecasting rules. The Smets-Wouters DSGE model with BLE is estimated and fits well with inflation survey expectations. As a policy application, we show that learning requires a lower degree of interest rate smoothing. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, D, D8, D83, D84, E, E3, E6, E62 Research Theme(s): Models and tools, Economic models, Monetary policy, Inflation dynamics and pressures, Monetary policy framework and transmission
Let’s Get Physical: Impacts of Climate Change Physical Risks on Provincial Employment Staff working paper 2024-32 Thibaut Duprey, Soojin Jo, Geneviève Vallée We analyze 40 years’ worth of natural disasters using a local projection framework to assess their impact on provincial labour markets in Canada. We find that disasters decrease hours worked within a week and lower wage growth in the medium run. Our study highlights that disasters affect vulnerable workers through the income channel. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers JEL Code(s): C, C3, C33, E, E2, E24, J, J3, Q, Q5, Q54 Research Theme(s): Monetary policy, Real economy and forecasting, Structural challenges, Climate change, Demographics and labour supply