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78 Results

Vertical Specialization and Gains from Trade

Staff Working Paper 2017-17 Patrick Alexander
Multi-stage production is widely recognized as an important feature of the modern global economy. This feature has been incorporated into many state-of-the-art quantitative trade models, and has been shown to deliver significant additional gains from international trade.

ToTEM III: The Bank of Canada’s Main DSGE Model for Projection and Policy Analysis

ToTEM III is the most recent generation of the Bank of Canada’s main dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for projection and policy analysis. The model helps Bank staff tell clear and coherent stories about the Canadian economy’s current state and future evolution.

Model Uncertainty and Wealth Distribution

Staff Working Paper 2019-48 Edouard Djeutem, Shaofeng Xu
This paper studies the implications of model uncertainty for wealth distribution in a tractable general equilibrium model with a borrowing constraint and robustness à la Hansen and Sargent (2008). Households confront model uncertainty about the process driving the return of the risky asset, and they choose robust policies.

Credit Risk Transfer and Bank Insolvency Risk

Staff Working Paper 2017-59 Maarten van Oordt
The present paper shows that, everything else equal, some transactions to transfer portfolio credit risk to third-party investors increase the insolvency risk of banks. This is particularly likely if a bank sells the senior tranche and retains a sufficiently large first-loss position.

Are Long-Horizon Expectations (De-)Stabilizing? Theory and Experiments

Staff Working Paper 2019-27 George Evans, Cars Hommes, Isabelle Salle, Bruce McGough
Most models in finance assume that agents make trading plans over the infinite future. We consider instead that they are boundedly rational and may only form forecasts over a limited horizon.

Energy Efficiency and Fluctuations in CO2 Emissions

Staff Working Paper 2021-47 Soojin Jo, Lilia Karnizova
Carbon dioxide emissions have been commonly modelled as rising and falling with total output. Yet many factors, such as energy-efficiency improvements and shifts to cleaner energy, can break this relationship. We evaluate these factors using US data and find that changes in energy efficiency of consumption goods explain a significant proportion of emissions fluctuations. This finding also implies that models that omit energy efficiency likely overestimate the trade-off between environmental protection and economic performance.

Productivity, the Terms of Trade, and the Real Exchange Rate: The Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis Revisited

Staff Working Paper 2009-22 Ehsan U. Choudhri, Lawrence L. Schembri
The paper examines how the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis is affected by a modern variation of the standard model that allows product differentiation (within the traded and nontraded goods sectors) with the number of firms determined exogenously or endogenously.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Exchange rates, Productivity JEL Code(s): F, F3, F31, F4, F41
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