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18 Results

Exchange Rates and Individual Good’s Price Misalignment: Some Preliminary Evidence of Long-Horizon Predictability

Staff Discussion Paper 2011-8 Wei Dong, Deokwoo Nam
When prices are sticky, movements in the nominal exchange rate have a direct impact on international relative prices. A relative price misalignment would trigger an adjustment in consumption and employment, and may help to predict future movements in the exchange rate.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Exchange rates, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F3, F31, F4, F47

Multivariate Tests of Mean-Variance Efficiency and Spanning with a Large Number of Assets and Time-Varying Covariances

Staff Working Paper 2013-16 Sermin Gungor, Richard Luger
We develop a finite-sample procedure to test for mean-variance efficiency and spanning without imposing any parametric assumptions on the distribution of model disturbances.

On the Evolution of the United Kingdom Price Distributions

We propose a functional principal components method that accounts for stratified random sample weighting and time dependence in the observations to understand the evolution of distributions of monthly micro-level consumer prices for the United Kingdom (UK).

Steps in Applying Extreme Value Theory to Finance: A Review

Staff Working Paper 2000-20 Younes Bensalah
Extreme value theory (EVT) has been applied in fields such as hydrology and insurance. It is a tool used to consider probabilities associated with extreme and thus rare events. EVT is useful in modelling the impact of crashes or situations of extreme stress on investor portfolios.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial markets JEL Code(s): C, C0, C4, C5, G, G1

Variance Estimation for Survey-Weighted Data Using Bootstrap Resampling Methods: 2013 Methods-of-Payment Survey Questionnaire

Technical Report No. 104 Heng Chen, Rallye Shen
Sampling units for the 2013 Methods-of-Payment Survey were selected through an approximate stratified random sampling design. To compensate for non-response and non-coverage, the observations are weighted through a raking procedure.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C8, C83

High-Frequency Trading around Macroeconomic News Announcements: Evidence from the U.S. Treasury Market

Staff Working Paper 2014-56 George Jiang, Ingrid Lo, Giorgio Valente
This paper investigates high-frequency (HF) market and limit orders in the U.S. Treasury market around major macroeconomic news announcements. BrokerTec introduced i- Cross at the end of 2007 and we use this exogenous event as an instrument to analyze the impact of HF activities on liquidity and price efficiency.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial markets JEL Code(s): G, G1, G10, G12, G14

Interconnected Banks and Systemically Important Exposures

How do banks' interconnections in the euro area contribute to the vulnerability of the banking system? We study both the direct interconnections (banks lend to each other) and the indirect interconnections (banks are exposed to similar sectors of the economy). These complex linkages make the banking system more vulnerable to contagion risks.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C6, C63, G, G1, G15, G2, G21

Narrative-Driven Fluctuations in Sentiment: Evidence Linking Traditional and Social Media

Staff Working Paper 2023-23 Alistair Macaulay, Wenting Song
News media present competing interpretations of what breaking news implies for the macroeconomy. Recent examples include news reporting on high inflation and yield curve inversions. Do these narratives shape macroeconomic sentiment? In this paper, we highlight the importance of narratives using evidence linking traditional media and social media.
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