June 10, 2020 Our COVID-19 response: Keeping markets liquid Toni Gravelle When the COVID-19 pandemic hit Canada, the Bank of Canada acted quickly. We needed to make sure the financial system worked well enough that credit could continue to flow. That meant addressing shortages of liquidity in financial markets—the backbone for lending and borrowing in the economy. Content Type(s): Publications, The Economy, Plain and Simple Research Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19)
Trading on Long-term Information Staff Working Paper 2020-20 Corey Garriott, Ryan Riordan Investors who trade based on good research are said to be the backbone of stock markets: They conduct research to discover the value of stocks and, through their trading, guide financial prices to reflect true value. What can make their job difficult is that high-speed, short-term traders could use machine learning and other technologies to infer when informed investors are trading. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial markets, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): G, G1, G14, G2, G20, L, L1
The Term Structures of Loss and Gain Uncertainty Staff Working Paper 2020-19 Bruno Feunou, Ricardo Lopez Aliouchkin, Roméo Tedongap, Lai Xu We investigate the uncertainty around stock returns at different investment horizons. Since a return is either a loss or a gain, we categorize return uncertainty into two components—loss uncertainty and gain uncertainty. We then use these components to evaluate investment. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Asset pricing, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12
June 5, 2020 CARR welcomes MX’s listing of new Three-Month CORRA Futures The Canadian Alternative Reference Rate working group (CARR) welcomed Montréal Exchange’s (MX) notice that it will launch its new Three-Month Canadian Overnight Repo Rate Average (CORRA) Futures contract for trading on Friday June 12, 2020. Content Type(s): Press, Market notices Source(s): Canadian Alternative Reference Rate Working Group
May 27, 2020 Results of today’s Government of Canada Bond Purchase Program operation (Real Return Bonds) Today the Bank of Canada purchased $ 700,000,000 of Government of Canada Real Return Bonds in the secondary market. Content Type(s): Press, Market notices Source(s): Government of Canada Bond Purchase Program
January 26, 2021 CFEC Releases Results of October 2020 Foreign Exchange Volume Survey The Canadian Foreign Exchange Committee (CFEC) released today the results of its October 2020 semi-annual survey of foreign exchange volumes in Canada. Content Type(s): Press, Market notices Source(s): Canadian Foreign Exchange Committee
Networking the Yield Curve: Implications for Monetary Policy Staff Working Paper 2021-4 Tatjana Dahlhaus, Julia Schaumburg, Tatevik Sekhposyan We study how different monetary policies affect the yield curve and interact. Our study highlights the importance of the spillover structure across the yield curve for policy-making. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Interest rates, Monetary policy implementation JEL Code(s): C, C1, C18, C2, C21, C5, C53, E, E4, E43, E44, E5, E52
Using Payments Data to Nowcast Macroeconomic Variables During the Onset of COVID-19 Staff Working Paper 2021-2 James Chapman, Ajit Desai We use retail payment data in conjunction with machine learning techniques to predict the effects of COVID-19 on the Canadian economy in near-real time. Our model yields a significant increase in macroeconomic prediction accuracy over a linear benchmark model. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, C55, E, E3, E37, E4, E42, E5, E52
December 1, 2020 CFEC Meeting #103 (December 1, 2020) Conference call Content Type(s): Meetings Source(s): Canadian Foreign Exchange Committee
January 20, 2021 Monetary Policy Report – January 2021 While a second wave of COVID-19 is hurting Canadians now, the economy should rebound strongly later in the year. The Bank is forecasting growth of around 4 percent this year and close to 5 percent in 2022. Content Type(s): Publications, Monetary Policy Report