Production Networks and the Propagation of Commodity Price Shocks Staff Working Paper 2020-44 Shutao Cao, Wei Dong We examine the macro implications of commodity price shocks in a model with multiple production sectors that are interconnected within a commodity-exporting small open economy. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, International topics JEL Code(s): D, D5, D57, F, F4, F41
Corporate investment and monetary policy transmission in Canada Staff Analytical Note 2020-26 Min Jae Kim, Jonathan Witmer Unexpected changes in interest rates lead small firms to materially change their investment rate. Large firms, in contrast, show a smaller response. This suggests both that financial conditions are an important channel for transmitting monetary policy and that firm characteristics can help us better understand fluctuations in business investment. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Firm dynamics, Monetary policy, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): D, D2, D22, D9, D92, G, G3, G31, G32
Outside Investor Access to Top Management: Market Monitoring versus Stock Price Manipulation Staff Working Paper 2020-43 Josef Schroth Should managers be paid in stock options if they provide stock-market participants with information about the firm? This paper studies how firm owners trade off the benefit of stock-price incentives and better-informed market participants against the cost of potential stock-price manipulation. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Financial markets, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): D, D8, D82, D86, G, G1, G14, G3, G32, G34, M, M1, M12, M4, M41
October 27, 2020 Research Update - October 2020 This monthly newsletter features the latest research publications by Bank of Canada economists including external publications and working papers published on the Bank of Canada’s website. Content Type(s): Staff research, Research newsletters
October 19, 2020 Operational details for upcoming secondary market purchases of Government of Canada securities (October 26-November 6) As previously announced, the Bank of Canada (the Bank) launched on April 1, 2020 a program to purchase Government of Canada securities in the secondary market – the Government Bond Purchase Program (GBPP). Content Type(s): Press, Market notices Source(s): Government of Canada Bond Purchase Program
Announcing the Bankers’ Acceptance Purchase Facility: a COVID‑19 event study Staff Analytical Note 2020-23 Rohan Arora, Sermin Gungor, Kaetlynd McRae, Jonathan Witmer The Bank of Canada launched the Bankers’ Acceptance Purchase Facility (BAPF) to ensure that the bankers’ acceptance (BA) market could continue to function well during the financial crisis induced by the COVID‑19 pandemic. We review the impact that the announcement of this facility had on BA yields in the secondary market. We find that BA yield spreads declined by 15 basis points on the day of the announcement and by up to 70 basis points over a longer period. Using an econometric framework, we quantify the effect of the announcement and confirm early assertions presented in the Bank’s 2020 Financial System Review. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Financial markets, Financial stability JEL Code(s): G, G1, G2, G20, G23
October 19, 2020 Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations—Third Quarter of 2020 The Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations (CSCE) collects respondents’ views on inflation, the labour market and household finances. The survey for the third quarter of 2020 was conducted from August 17 to September 1, 2020. Reported COVID‑19 cases have risen in some provinces since the survey was conducted. The survey included questions, introduced in the previous quarter, on the impacts of COVID‑19 and the measures to contain its spread, along with new questions on how the pandemic is affecting households’ savings. Content Type(s): Publications, Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations
On Causal Networks of Financial Firms: Structural Identification via Non-parametric Heteroskedasticity Staff Working Paper 2020-42 Ruben Hipp Banks’ business interactions create a network of relationships that are hidden in the correlations of bank stock returns. But for policy interventions, we need causality to understand how the network changes. Thus, this paper looks for the causal network anticipated by investors. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets, Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C1, C3, C32, C5, C58, L, L1, L14
September 17, 2020 CFEC Meeting #102 (September 17, 2020) Conference call Content Type(s): Meetings Source(s): Canadian Foreign Exchange Committee
October 28, 2020 Monetary Policy Report – October 2020 The Bank expects Canada’s economy to grow by almost 4 percent on average in 2021 and 2022, following a decline of about 5 ½ percent in 2020. Content Type(s): Publications, Monetary Policy Report