September 20, 2022 CFIF Meeting (September 20, 2022) Content Type(s): Meetings Source(s): Canadian Fixed-Income Forum
April 5, 2021 Understanding how monetary policy works It takes time for our policy decisions to filter—or be transmitted—through the economy and financial system. Content Type(s): Explainers Topic(s): Monetary policy
What Consistent Responses on Future Inflation by Consumers Can Reveal Staff Discussion Paper 2023-7 Sarah Miller, Patrick Sabourin We analyze factors that may explain consistent answers to questions about inflation expectations in the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations. We also compare the inflation forecasts of consumers with consistent responses with those of professional forecasters. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): D, D8, D80, D84, E, E3, E31
April 3, 2023 Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations—First Quarter of 2023 Results in the first quarter of 2023 show that consumer expectations for inflation one to two years ahead fell but remain elevated, particularly for services. Consumers, especially indebted households and equity-deserving groups, are facing financial pressures and limits on their spending due to high inflation and increasing interest rates. Consumers expect to spend less on discretionary services, such as travelling and eating out. Canadians continue to anticipate a recession in the next 12 months. Many are uncertain about where the economy and job markets are going. Despite this, workers still see the labour market as strong and expect wage growth to increase. Content Type(s): Publications, Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations
April 3, 2023 Business Outlook Survey—First Quarter of 2023 Results from the first-quarter 2023 Business Outlook Survey and the Business Leaders’ Pulse surveys from January through March 2023 show a subdued sales outlook and plans for modest growth in capital expenditures. The labour market remains tight, but pressures have eased from high levels. Content Type(s): Publications, Business Outlook Survey
March 29, 2023 The Bank of Canada’s market liquidity programs: Lessons from a pandemic Remarks Toni Gravelle National Bank Financial Services Conference Montréal, Quebec Deputy Governor Toni Gravelle speaks about market liquidity measures taken during the COVID-19 pandemic, and addresses recent turmoil in the US and international banking sectors. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Financial markets, Financial stability, Lender of last resort, Recent economic and financial developments
March 29, 2023 Speech by Toni Gravelle, Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada On Wednesday, March 29, 2023, Toni Gravelle, Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada, will speak at the 21st National Bank Financial Services Conference. Content Type(s): Press, Media advisories
March 9, 2023 Up To Speed, CBC Radio Carolyn Rogers, Senior Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada Interview with Up to Speed on CBC Radio Content Type(s): Press, Media activities
Persistent Debt and Business Cycles in an Economy with Production Heterogeneity Staff Working Paper 2023-17 Aubhik Khan, Soyoung Lee We examine the role of debt in amplifying and propagating recessions. Firms’ debt adjustment makes recessions deeper but makes expansions gradual. In particular, when the aggregate business leverage is ten percentage points above average, the half-life of the recovery doubles. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Firm dynamics, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E2, E23, E3, E30, E32
Cost Pass-Through with Capacity Constraints and International Linkages Staff Working Paper 2023-16 Reinhard Ellwanger, Hinnerk Gnutzmann, Piotr Śpiewanowski How are regional cost shocks passed through into global prices? We investigate the role of short-run capacity constraints and show that they can induce stark non-linearities in the pass-through. We highlight this effect for the market for ammonia, a commodity produced largely from natural gas. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Climate change, Econometric and statistical methods, Inflation and prices, International topics JEL Code(s): L, L1, L13, L6, L65, Q, Q4, Q40, Q5, Q54