Challenges in Implementing Worst-Case Analysis Staff Working Paper 2018-47 Jon Danielsson, Lerby Ergun, Casper G. de Vries Worst-case analysis is used among financial regulators in the wake of the recent financial crisis to gauge the tail risk. We provide insight into worst-case analysis and provide guidance on how to estimate it. We derive the bias for the non-parametric heavy-tailed order statistics and contrast it with the semi-parametric extreme value theory (EVT) approach. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C0, C01, C1, C14, C5, C58
Market Size and Entry in International Trade: Product Versus Firm Fixed Costs Staff Working Paper 2018-43 Walter Steingress This paper develops a theoretical framework to infer the nature of fixed costs from the relationship between entry patterns in international markets and destination market size. If fixed costs are at the firm level, firms take advantage of an intrafirm spillover by expanding firm-level product range (scope). Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Firm dynamics, International topics, Trade integration JEL Code(s): F, F1, F12, F14, F2, F23
August 31, 2018 Research Update - August 2018 This monthly newsletter features the latest research publications by Bank of Canada economists including external publications and working papers published on the Bank of Canada’s website. Content Type(s): Staff research, Research newsletters
September 6, 2018 An Update on Canada’s Economic Resilience Remarks Carolyn A. Wilkins Saskatchewan Trade & Export Partnership Regina, Saskatchewan Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins discusses economic developments since the July Monetary Policy Report and Governing Council’s deliberations leading to yesterday’s policy rate decision. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Topic(s): Economic models, Inflation targets, Interest rates, Monetary policy, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Recent economic and financial developments, Trade integration
Furor over the Fed : Presidential Tweets and Central Bank Independence Staff Analytical Note 2019-33 Antoine Camous, Dmitry Matveev We illustrate how market data can be informative about the interactions between monetary and fiscal policy. Federal funds futures are private contracts that reflect investor’s expectations about monetary policy decisions. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Central bank research, Credibility, Financial markets, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, E5, E52, E58
December 12, 2019 The Bank of Canada’s plans for 2020 Speech summary Stephen S. Poloz Empire Club of Canada Toronto, Ontario In his traditional year-end speech, Governor Stephen S. Poloz described some of the long-term forces affecting the global and Canadian economies that will shape the Bank’s work in 2020. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Topic(s): Digital currencies and fintech, Economic models, Inflation targets, International topics, Monetary policy framework, Productivity
Loan Insurance, Market Liquidity, and Lending Standards Staff Working Paper 2019-47 Toni Ahnert, Martin Kuncl We examine loan insurance—credit risk transfer upon origination—in a model in which lenders can screen, learn loan quality over time, and can sell loans. Some lenders with low screening ability insure, benefiting from higher market liquidity of insured loans while forgoing the option to exploit future information about loan quality. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): G, G0, G01, G2, G21, G28
Extreme Downside Risk in Asset Returns Staff Working Paper 2019-46 Lerby Ergun Financial markets can experience sudden and extreme downward movements. Investors are highly concerned about the performance of their assets in such scenarios. Some assets perform badly in a downturn in the market; others have milder reactions. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C1, C14, G, G1, G11, G12
December 5, 2019 Canadian economy resilient despite global uncertainty Speech summary Timothy Lane Ottawa Board of Trade and Ottawa Business Journal Ottawa, Ontario Speaking a day after we decided to hold interest rates steady, Deputy Governor Timothy Lane explained that Canada’s economy remains resilient. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Topic(s): Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework, Recent economic and financial developments
November 28, 2019 Bank of Canada announces finalists for the fifth annual Governor’s Challenge Media Relations Ottawa, Ontario The Bank of Canada has announced the five finalist teams in the 2019-20 edition of The Governor’s Challenge, a competition where university students simulate the role of advisor to the Bank’s Governing Council. Content Type(s): Press, Press releases Source(s): The Governor's Challenge